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Alternative Market Briefing

Diapason reviews opportunities and drivers in the commodity markets

Tuesday, March 05, 2013

Beverly Chandler, Opalesque London: New commentary by Senior Market Strategist Robert Balan from Diapason Commodities Management reveals that the world's biggest economies released their February manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index reports last week. Balan writes: "So far the indications are that global manufacturing is headed towards better times. The PMI manufacturing score is uneven, but if we use the classic interpretation for PMIs, manufacturing on a global scope will continue to improve over the next six month period."

Manufacturing has lagged behind services during the recent global recovery. "So it is of no surprise that global investors continue to underestimate the health of the global economy due to the perceived underperformance of global manufacturing. What is less spoken about is the impressive recovery of service PMIs. Historically, services recover ahead of manufacturing after a deep recession, leading the way by two to four months. We expect the case to be the same again this time. Judging from the recent upsurge in global manufacturing PMI, manufacturing output should pick up strongly in H2 2013. For one thing, manufacturing can glow slowly, but there is no risk of a "stall" -- as some economists have been speculating about the fate of the slow-moving manufacturing sector. Manufacturing activity (like economies) does not collapse if the sector grows slowly -- they just keep on......................

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