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Alternative Market Briefing

The Big Picture: Forex specialist bearish on sterling

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Glenn Uniacke
An Opalesque column for global macro investors.

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

Last Friday, credit ratings agency Moody's Investors Service downgraded Britain's government bond rating by one notch, from Aaa to Aa1. The UK's creditworthiness remains high however, the agency said, despite concerns for the country’s medium term growth outlook, and consequent challenges in the government’s fiscal consolidation programme, high and rising debt burden and "a deterioration in the shock-absorption capacity of the government's balance sheet, which is unlikely to reverse before 2016".

Moody’s expects "that a combination of political will and medium-term fundamental underlying economic strengths will, in time, allow the government to implement its fiscal consolidation plan and reverse the UK's debt trajectory." The rating of the Bank of England was also downgraded to Aa1 from Aaa.

Glenn Uniacke, Head of Options at the forex specialist Moneycorp said the previous week he expected the downgrade, citing Britain’s economy going backwards and its government set to miss its deficit targets. At the same time, he said, sterling is being slaughtered and has fallen below last year's low against the euro. The one crumb of comfort, he conti......................

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