Wed, Aug 31, 2016
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

Other Voices: How ironic – economic growth may be the poison pill to the 2012 bull market

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

amb
Steven Michael
The author, Steven Michael, is the Founder, Principal & Chief Investment Officer of Stonehenge Asset Management. He has over 25 years experience in the alternative management space. His extensive financial career began in 1985 on the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). He is also a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

The S&P is up 10% already it the first quarter of 2012. We have had steady growth in the economy and in employment. The markets and the fed have discounted 2.5%-3% growth for 2012.

Although, we are still bullish on US equities, there are risks to this strategy. Ironically, the largest risk may be growth that is beyond the expectations of the Fed and the markets. Before I explain, I would like to discuss the some of the other risks to this.

It seems that oil prices are of much concern to the continued equity rise. Getting beyond the politics and rhetoric of news coverage, oil is probably underpriced relative to geopolitical risks which currently exist. What affects the equity markets are “oil shocks” not just generally higher oil prices. What is an oil shock? Oil would need to rally 80-100% in less than a year to create an oil shock. Higher oil prices alone, will not cause equity price break downs alone. Europe has learned to live with much higher gasoline prices. The fact is that without this type of shock, equity prices will remain ambivalent and the trend of oil consumption relative to GDP and the oil cur......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. The Big Picture: Water is single largest environmental investment opportunity[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva: Water, the world’s most precious and undervalued commodity, is set to lead the socially and environmentally responsible investment themes. This is according to specialist fund manager Thomas Schumann. His firm,

  2. Commodities - Hedge funds pile into bullish bets on U.S. crude by most on record, Rig count steady, hedge funds dump short contracts on 63 million barrels, Hedge funds bail on Copper as Goldman predicts ‘supply storm’, Hedge funds pile up bets against sterling[more]

    Hedge funds pile into bullish bets on U.S. crude by most on record From BRecorder.com: Hedge funds and other speculators raised their bullish bets on US crude oil in the past week by the most on record fuelled by speculation that Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will agr

  3. Investing - U.S. hedge fund Marathon makes Brexit bet on European property, Hedge funds love Liberty and John Malone, DE Shaw could bid for control over TerraForm Power, New York hedge fund increases stake in Tronc as sale talks continue, Don't wait too long to check this +20% value fund's ideas[more]

    U.S. hedge fund Marathon makes Brexit bet on European property From FT.com: Marathon, a $13bn US hedge fund, is building a big Brexit trade, increasing its investments in property across Ireland, France, Germany and the Netherlands, in a bet that they will be among the big beneficiaries

  4. Opalesque Exclusive: Investors struggle to identify the better performing hedge funds[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Fund managers and investors believe that performance is one of the major factors driving change in the hedge fund industry, a Preqin survey showed in its latest Hedge Fund Spotlight. Preqin said that the disappoin

  5. …And Finally - Baby born on Cebu Pacific airplane gets 1 million air miles[more]

    From CNN.com: Here's one kid who'll probably learn to fly before she can crawl. After being born four hours into a flight from Dubai to Manila, baby girl Haven has been gifted 1 million air mile points. Haven's mom went into labor more than five weeks early while flying on an aircraft op