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Alternative Market Briefing

SEB believes central bank affirmative action has resulted in the world slowly navigating away from the brink of recession

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

By Beverly Chandler, Opalesque London: The SEB’s Nordic Outlook takes comfort in the fact that the world’s economic crisis has stabilised somewhat compared to end of last year. SEB believes that now there is greater symmetry in the risk picture, due to forceful central bank actions. The bank has adjusted its global growth forecast upwards a little but is still concerned about the level of unemployment in many countries.

The SEB report says: "The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the 34 industrialised OECD countries will grow by 1.4 per cent this year and 1.9 per cent in 2013. The large quantity of idle resources will push inflation downward, giving households somewhat greater purchasing power and enabling historically low key interest rates to last throughout 2012-2013. Inflation expectations are stable. Inflation risks are primarily connected to changes in indirect taxes and disruptions in food and commodity production (for example in the Middle East)".

The bank approves of the new President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi who, it says, in his first 100 days in office, is off to a roaring start with two key interest rate cuts and a programme of cheap three year loans to the banking system. "Combined with the liquidity support measures of other central banks, the ECB has thus probably succeeded in the task - which the political system had failed to resolve - of building the necessary......................

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