Sun, Apr 23, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
New Managers June 2012

Peter Urbani' Statistics - Sell in May and buy a CTA.

Sell in May and buy a CTA

You will no doubt all be familiar with the old market adage - Sell in May and go away. This month, we examine this strategy and come up with a couple of suggestions of our own - specifically we suggest that one should Sell in May and Buy a CTA.

The exact origin of the phrase Sell in May and go away is unknown. However its usage has been traced back as far as the early 1930s and there is now a considerable body of research investigating the origins and efficacy of this old market aphorism.

One such study by Jacobsen and Zhang, Are Monthly Seasonals Real? A Three Century Perspective, finds that - "Over 300 years of UK stock returns reveal that well-known monthly seasonals are sample specific. For instance, the January effect only emerges around 1830, which coincides with Christmas becoming a public holiday. Most months have had their 50 years of fame, showing the importance of long time series to safeguard against sample selection bias, noise, and data snooping. Only - yet undocumented - monthly July and October effects do persist over three centuries, as does the half yearly Halloween, or Sell-in- May effect. Winter returns - November through April - are consistently higher than (negative) summer returns, indicating predictably negative risk premia. A Sell-in-May trading strategy beats the market more than 80% of the time over 5 year horizons."

Another by Haggard and Witte entitled The Halloween Effect: Trick or Treat? finds that the Halloween effect is robust to consideration of outliers and the "January effect."

Whatever the exact causes of these seasonal effects, and we suspect largely behavioural biases, the stylised effects thereof can be observed and investigated.

The chief ......................

To view our full article please login

This article was published in Opalesque's New Managers a top-down monthly analysis, news and research publication on the global emerging manager space.
New Managers
New Managers
New Managers

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Opalesque Exclusive: Carden Capital bets on volatility[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York for New Managers: Machine driven strategies are having a bit of a moment in the hedge fund world right now. Systematic funds have outperformed other strategies at a time when all ey

  2. Sprott AM to sell Canadian diversified fund business to management-led group[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Toronto-based asset management company Sprott Asset Management LP (SAM) has entered into an agreement to sell its Canadian diversified fund business to a management-led group. Under the deal, the new group will have

  3. Investing - These hedge funds (and Madeleine Albright) are betting on a debt crisis, Hedge funds are upping their bets on the death of the traditional retailer, $20bn hedge fund recaps Corizon[more]

    These hedge funds (and Madeleine Albright) are betting on a debt crisis From Yahoo.com: There could be a big debt crisis brewing in places like China, India, Latin America and Africa -- and a growing number of investors are amassing war chests to cash in on the distress. Albright Capital

  4. Universities looking to defend endowments from Republican tax plan[more]

    From PIOnline.com: Some of the richest U.S. colleges are pushing back against scrutiny by Congress over the tax-exempt status of university endowments. Lobbying disclosure forms show almost two dozen schools such as Princeton University, University of Notre Dame and Cornell University are including

  5. Activist News - GAM touts 'tangible results' of turnaround as activist fight hots up, Bill Ackman not done with Herbalife, says his fight could get legs in May, Activist hedge fund CIAM says Euro Disney's buyout offer not fair for minority investors[more]

    GAM touts 'tangible results' of turnaround as activist fight hots up From FNLondon.com: GAM, the Swiss asset manager at the center of an attempted boardroom putsch by activist hedge fund RBR Capital, said its first-quarter results amounted to "tangible" proof that its management's plan f