Mon, Feb 8, 2016
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
New Managers June 2012

Peter Urbani' Statistics - Sell in May and buy a CTA.

Sell in May and buy a CTA

You will no doubt all be familiar with the old market adage - Sell in May and go away. This month, we examine this strategy and come up with a couple of suggestions of our own - specifically we suggest that one should Sell in May and Buy a CTA.

The exact origin of the phrase Sell in May and go away is unknown. However its usage has been traced back as far as the early 1930s and there is now a considerable body of research investigating the origins and efficacy of this old market aphorism.

One such study by Jacobsen and Zhang, Are Monthly Seasonals Real? A Three Century Perspective, finds that - "Over 300 years of UK stock returns reveal that well-known monthly seasonals are sample specific. For instance, the January effect only emerges around 1830, which coincides with Christmas becoming a public holiday. Most months have had their 50 years of fame, showing the importance of long time series to safeguard against sample selection bias, noise, and data snooping. Only - yet undocumented - monthly July and October effects do persist over three centuries, as does the half yearly Halloween, or Sell-in- May effect. Winter returns - November through April - are consistently higher than (negative) summer returns, indicating predictably negative risk premia. A Sell-in-May trading strategy beats the market more than 80% of the time over 5 year horizons."

Another by Haggard and Witte entitled The Halloween Effect: Trick or Treat? finds that the Halloween effect is robust to consideration of outliers and the "January effect."

Whatever the exact causes of these seasonal effects, and we suspect largely behavioural biases, the stylised effects thereof can be observed and investigated.

The chief ......................

To view our full article please login

This article was published in Opalesque's New Managers a top-down monthly analysis, news and research publication on the global emerging manager space.
New Managers
New Managers
New Managers

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. How Einhorn survived a nightmare year[more]

    From Bloomberg.com: Even when a hedge fund has an awful year, which was the case for David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, there are lessons to be learned. Many funds would have had a tough time surviving a year like Einhorn experienced in 2015, when all the stars seemed to align against him and Green

  2. Legal - Hedge fund founder wins early release in U.S. insider trading case, Gramercy seeking $1.3 billion from Peru over land-bond dispute[more]

    Hedge fund founder wins early release in U.S. insider trading case From Reuters/Streetinsider.com: Former hedge fund manager Doug Whitman on Tuesday won a reprieve from serving the remainder of his two-year sentence for insider trading after several judges expressed skepticism that his 2

  3. Investing - David Einhorn finds a winner in Michael Kors[more]

    From Thestreetinsider.com: Greenlight Capital hedge fund manger David Einhorn took his lumps in 2015. The fund lost over 20 percent on the year amid bets gone bad being long a plunging SunEdison and short a couple high-flying FANG stocks. However, today Einhorn is again showing his stock picking pro

  4. Investing - Avenue Capital's Marc Lasry: We like European bank loans, Comment: A bunch of hedge fund managers are chasing the 'dream of crushing a major structural problem'[more]

    Avenue Capital's Marc Lasry: We like European bank loans From CNBC.com: European banks are under immense pressure, but at least one prominent hedge fund has found what it thinks is a good opportunity in the wreckage. Marc Lasry, co-founder and chief executive of hedge fund Avenue Capital

  5. Computer-driven hedge funds make money during January’s selloff[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Commodity trading advisers (CTAs) that use computer programs to guide how they trade, made millions of dollars during last month’s market selloff on the back of declining oil prices and global equities and big moves in currencies. Data provider