Mon, Oct 24, 2016
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

Sungard: How Will Stocks in my Portfolio be Affected if the Eurozone Ceases to Exist Altogether?

Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Opalesque Industry Update - Since the Greek crisis triggered the current atmosphere of instability in the Eurozone, market commentators have been speculating whether the death knell is about to ring for the Euro currency.

Analysts have used SunGard APT’s market risk tools to model different Eurozone break up scenarios. To model these scenarios, they used a global factor model incorporating macro-economic factors which enables them to estimate cross-asset class effects.

- If five countries - Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (PIIGS) - leave, APT's risk models predict downgrades and losses of up to 20% in investment grade corporate debt.
- APT's risk analytics also predict losses of up to 15% on global equities indices with near-doubling of volatility. Even emerging markets indices could suffer losses of more than 25%.
- The US equities markets are slightly less affected with losses forecast at about 10%, and the VIX going above 50.
- Recession in the European countries would have real-economy effects, leading to enormous pressure on global equities markets, including exporters such as China and the commodities producing nations

Listen to this FactSet podcast interviewing Dr. Laurence Wormald, SunGard APT's Head of Research, to find out how investors can gauge expected results from a possible Euro breakup, default of one of the PIIGS countries, and other scenarios for the troubled Eurozone. Source

(press release)


What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. M&A - U.S. hedge fund HarbourVest is shock winner in the £1.1bn SVG Capital takeover saga, Hedge fund Parvus shows hand, toppling William Hill merger deal[more]

    U.S. hedge fund HarbourVest is shock winner in the £1.1bn SVG Capital takeover saga From The fierce battle to buy Britain's biggest private equity group has come to an unexpected conclusion, with the original bidder walking away with the prize. SVG Capital has agreed

  2. Marc Lasry: Energy is still a phenomenal opportunity[more]

    From Distressed debt specialist Marc Lasry said energy debt is still a "phenomenal opportunity" because investors can get "massively overpaid" for the risk they take on. There are "huge opportunities" in the energy sector especially in restructurings, the Avenue Capital Group CEO said Tues

  3. Opalesque Exclusive: Ex-SAC manager re-emerges with market neutral hedge fund[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva for New Managers: A manager re-emerged from the SAC battleground last year to launch his own hedge fund under the umbrella of New York-based investment firm Endicott Group.

  4. North America - Hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass says the U.S. is on track for stagflation, Billionaire hedge fund titans Dinan, Lasry on election, markets and best investment ideas[more]

    Hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass says the U.S. is on track for stagflation From Kyle Bass, founder of Hayman Capital Management, on Wednesday warned that the U.S. is headed toward so-called stagflation. Stagflation is typically described as persistently high inflation and hi

  5. David Einhorn speaks on passive investing, Mylan, his cheapest stock, the Fed[more]

    From Greenlight Capital hedge fund manager David Einhorn (Trades, Portfolio) joined nine other famed investors on Tuesday to talk about stocks at the annual Great Investors’ Best Ideas Investment Symposium in Dallas. Presenters at the annual conference typically pitch one or severa