Tue, Sep 2, 2014
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

Sungard: How Will Stocks in my Portfolio be Affected if the Eurozone Ceases to Exist Altogether?

Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Opalesque Industry Update - Since the Greek crisis triggered the current atmosphere of instability in the Eurozone, market commentators have been speculating whether the death knell is about to ring for the Euro currency.

Analysts have used SunGard APT’s market risk tools to model different Eurozone break up scenarios. To model these scenarios, they used a global factor model incorporating macro-economic factors which enables them to estimate cross-asset class effects.

- If five countries - Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (PIIGS) - leave, APT's risk models predict downgrades and losses of up to 20% in investment grade corporate debt.
- APT's risk analytics also predict losses of up to 15% on global equities indices with near-doubling of volatility. Even emerging markets indices could suffer losses of more than 25%.
- The US equities markets are slightly less affected with losses forecast at about 10%, and the VIX going above 50.
- Recession in the European countries would have real-economy effects, leading to enormous pressure on global equities markets, including exporters such as China and the commodities producing nations

Listen to this FactSet podcast interviewing Dr. Laurence Wormald, SunGard APT's Head of Research, to find out how investors can gauge expected results from a possible Euro breakup, default of one of the PIIGS countries, and other scenarios for the troubled Eurozone. Source

(press release)

BG

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing
  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Study shows what resonates with investors: 'Unwavering', 'passionate' beats 'committed', 'dedicated' and more surprises[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: A new study by Pershing Square, a unit of BNY Mellon company, showed that an effective value proposition strengthens audience connections and fosters growth, yet many advisors have had little objective guidance in formulating such statements until now. In the

  2. Comment – Why you should avoid the hottest hedge fund hands, Swedroe attacks Hussman over risk management, relative value strategy[more]

    Why you should avoid the hottest hedge fund hands FromCNBC/Yahoo.com: Investors who don't have money with Pershing Square Capital Management are likely salivating at the hedge fund's industry-leading 26 percent return from January through July. But investing with Bill Ackman and other to

  3. Managed futures' global diversification is important in next phase of economic recovery[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: The global diversification provided by managed futures may prove to be extremely valuable as the markets enter the next phase of the economic recovery, said Campbell & Company, a pioneer in absolute return invest

  4. Ex-UBS prop trader's hedge fund Manikay Partners eyes UK launch[more]

    From eFinancialnews.com: Manikay Partners, a $1.7 billion US multi-strategy hedge fund set up in 2008 by a proprietary trader from UBS with backing from Goldman Sachs, is planning to open in the UK. New York-based Manikay's move into Europe comes after Financial News revealed on Monday that Aurelius

  5. Big hedge funds tighten grip amid consolidation[more]

    From Asianinvestor.net: The hedge fund industry consolidated last year with the number of funds falling by around a tenth from 2012 but assets under management rising $248.8 billion to $2.6 trillion, finds a new report from research firm eVestment. Firms with more than $1 billion in hedge fund A