Tue, Jan 17, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

Sungard: How Will Stocks in my Portfolio be Affected if the Eurozone Ceases to Exist Altogether?

Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Opalesque Industry Update - Since the Greek crisis triggered the current atmosphere of instability in the Eurozone, market commentators have been speculating whether the death knell is about to ring for the Euro currency.

Analysts have used SunGard APT’s market risk tools to model different Eurozone break up scenarios. To model these scenarios, they used a global factor model incorporating macro-economic factors which enables them to estimate cross-asset class effects.

- If five countries - Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (PIIGS) - leave, APT's risk models predict downgrades and losses of up to 20% in investment grade corporate debt.
- APT's risk analytics also predict losses of up to 15% on global equities indices with near-doubling of volatility. Even emerging markets indices could suffer losses of more than 25%.
- The US equities markets are slightly less affected with losses forecast at about 10%, and the VIX going above 50.
- Recession in the European countries would have real-economy effects, leading to enormous pressure on global equities markets, including exporters such as China and the commodities producing nations

Listen to this FactSet podcast interviewing Dr. Laurence Wormald, SunGard APT's Head of Research, to find out how investors can gauge expected results from a possible Euro breakup, default of one of the PIIGS countries, and other scenarios for the troubled Eurozone. Source

(press release)

BG

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Southpoint Capital gains 3.8% in Q3, bringing year-to-date returns to 5.2%[more]

    From Valuewalk.com: Southpoint Capital Advisors, the $3 billion New York hedge fund founded by former employees of David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, added 3.8% net during the third quarter of 2016, bringing year-to-date returns to 5.2% and cumulative returns since inception (July 2004) of 237.4% a

  2. The Big Picture: The case for emerging market debt in 2017[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva: Emerging market (EM) assets outperformed in 2016 mainly because of stronger fundamentals and an improving international environment, with GDP picking up speed, leading to positive earnings revisions for the first time in five years,

  3. Hedge funds gain across strategies in December, outperform MSCI to close at record index level in 2016[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Hedge funds posted gains across all strategies in December to conclude 2016, with the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index (FWC) rising to a record index value level as oil prices surged, equities gained and U.S. interest rates increased into year end, accordin

  4. Performance - BlackRock's robot stock-pickers post record losses, Soros-backed fund Glen Point loses in first trading year, Regal Funds Management: Bleak year as returns in key funds plunge 25pc, Elm Ridge Capital up 25% in 2016[more]

    BlackRock's robot stock-pickers post record losses From Bloomberg.com: Like so many fund titans these days, Laurence D. Fink is betting on machines to turn around BlackRock Inc.'s beleaguered stock-picking business. Trouble is, they just might have made things worse. BlackRock

  5. Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index up 1.01% in December (+4.48% YTD)[more]

    Hedge funds gained 1.01% during the month of December, with 2016 returns coming in at 4.48%. Meanwhile, underlying markets as represented by the MSCI AC World Index (Local) gained 2.38% in December with its 2016 returns coming in at 7.37%. North American equity markets traded higher in December as t