Mon, Jul 6, 2015
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

Sungard: How Will Stocks in my Portfolio be Affected if the Eurozone Ceases to Exist Altogether?

Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Opalesque Industry Update - Since the Greek crisis triggered the current atmosphere of instability in the Eurozone, market commentators have been speculating whether the death knell is about to ring for the Euro currency.

Analysts have used SunGard APT’s market risk tools to model different Eurozone break up scenarios. To model these scenarios, they used a global factor model incorporating macro-economic factors which enables them to estimate cross-asset class effects.

- If five countries - Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (PIIGS) - leave, APT's risk models predict downgrades and losses of up to 20% in investment grade corporate debt.
- APT's risk analytics also predict losses of up to 15% on global equities indices with near-doubling of volatility. Even emerging markets indices could suffer losses of more than 25%.
- The US equities markets are slightly less affected with losses forecast at about 10%, and the VIX going above 50.
- Recession in the European countries would have real-economy effects, leading to enormous pressure on global equities markets, including exporters such as China and the commodities producing nations

Listen to this FactSet podcast interviewing Dr. Laurence Wormald, SunGard APT's Head of Research, to find out how investors can gauge expected results from a possible Euro breakup, default of one of the PIIGS countries, and other scenarios for the troubled Eurozone. Source

(press release)

BG

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Opalesque Exclusive: New systematic strategy managed alongside research firm outperforms S&P500[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva for New Managers: An emerging CTA manager explains how he runs his strategy, which is based on an index produced by a research firm. Peter Turk is head of

  2. Opalesque Exclusive: New systematic strategy embraces machine learning[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva for New Managers: The founder of a New York-based systematic trading firm, which offers a hybrid between alpha strategies and alternative feta at lower fees, describes his approa

  3. Larry Robbins' hedge fund Glenview buys 1m Tenet Healthcare shares[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Glenview Capital Management said it bought an additional 979,482 shares at Tenet Healthcare Corp valued at $53.80 million, raising its stakes in the healthcare services company to 15.16%, reported

  4. Legal - Grayson’s hedge funds under scrutiny for possible ethics violations, Court rejects hedge fund’s motion to block merger of Samsung affiliates[more]

    Grayson’s hedge funds under scrutiny for possible ethics violations From Freebeacon.com: Rep. Alan Grayson is finding himself in hot water over managing hedge funds that bear his name, actions that are in possible violation of House ethics rules. Sitting members of Congress are prohibite

  5. Hedge funds decline in June as stocks tumble on Greek woes[more]

    From Bloomberg.com: Hedge funds posted losses across strategies last month as uncertainty over whether Greece will remain in the euro sent global stock markets tumbling. Winton Capital Management declined about 3.1 percent in June in its $12.1 billion Winton Futures Fund, leaving it down 1.9 percent

 

banner