Tue, Dec 12, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

Lyxor Sees Poor Bond Performance, Attractive Equities in Coming Decades

Friday, January 20, 2012
Opalesque Industry Update - For almost a quarter of a century, bond markets have rivaled with equity markets in terms of performance while offering half the volatility. Indeed, bond markets have benefited from a downtrend in long-term yields against a backdrop of disinflation and greater risk aversion. Meanwhile, equity markets have seen the Asian crisis, the Internet bubble and the sub-prime crisis.

Based on economic projections drawn up by key official organizations, as well as long-term statistical relationships, Lyxor’s research team has developed a model for forecasting long-run asset returns. The aim is to guide investors in their choice of assets for the coming decades, in particular making room for alternative investments. The relationships used are presented in Lyxor’s sixth White Paper: “Strategic Asset Allocation”. In light of the current debt crisis, Lyxor has updated its model and identified the following points:

> Poor bond performances expected. If the scenario of developed economies’ GDP growth steadily returning to its potential is confirmed, long-term yields will rise and weigh on government bond performance. In the longer term, as the influence of economic cycles fades, current forecasts for growth in the working population suggest yields will remain around 5%.

Should inflation climb to close to 10% by 2050, Lyxor’s model would see bond markets underperform inflation by around 3.5% a year. This makes the asset class even riskier for the decades ahead.

> Equities are attractive. If the scenario of developed economies’ GDP growth steadily returning towards its potential is confirmed, a gradual emergence from the crisis could make investors less risk averse and bring share prices back to valuations more in line with their historical levels. In the longer term, they should outperform bonds by around 5%, offering a risk premium similar to that seen up until a quarter of a century ago.

The results of this research should encourage investors to reconsider their strategic allocation for the coming decades. Indeed, the bond markets’ status is in doubt and should prompt fresh thinking on the role of equities and alternative asset classes, particularly hedge funds.

Reference: Eychenne K. and Roncalli T. (2011), Strategic Asset Allocation – An Update Following the Sovereign Debt Crisis, Lyxor Short Paper Series, November, www.lyxor.com.

(research flash)

Full short paper: Source

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Mediobanca acquires majority stakes in Swiss hedge fund[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Listed diversified banking group Mediobanca SpA said it has acquired a majority stake in Geneva-based hedge fund firm RAM Active Investments SA (RAM AI), an active and alternative asset manager offering a range of act

  2. Launches - Ex-BlueCrest team to open over $200m hedge fund, Greg Coffey, a hedge fund star who retired at 41, is eyeing a comeback, Brevan Howard plans Greek funds as bond rally signals revival[more]

    Ex-BlueCrest team to open over $200m hedge fund From Bloomberg.com: A team of traders who left BlueCrest Capital Management earlier this year raised more than $200 million for their own hedge fund focused on Asian stocks, according to a person familiar with the matter. Ovata Capital Manag

  3. North America - Miami could attract hedge funds if SALT deductions axed[more]

    From Law360.com: For years, inertia has been Nitin Motwani's greatest foe in his attempts to lure hedge fund owners in the northeast to Miami, which he has pitched as a tropical low-tax paradise. But with the Republican tax bill proposing to eliminate deductions for state and local taxes, he's sensi

  4. Northleaf Capital Partners closes debut private credit fund on $670M[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: Northleaf Capital Partners has closed its debut private credit fund - Northleaf Private Credit I - on $670 million. The vehicle will invest in private credit transactions in Europe and North America, with a primary focus on lending to private equity-backed compa

  5. Opalesque Exclusive: Credit Suisse Asset Management's NEXT Investors leads $6M Series A round for LUX Technology and Services[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: Credit Suisse Asset Management's NEXT Investors has led a $6 million Series A funding round for LUX Technology and Services, a business and technology solutions provider for the alternative assets industry. The investment will be used to fuel growth of Trans