Sun, Feb 19, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

Hedge fund managers are bearish on US Treasuries, many expect another recession

Tuesday, July 05, 2011
Opalesque Industry Update – The outlook shared by many hedge fund managers is not particularly promising, according to a new report by TrimTabs Investment Research and BarclayHedge. The firms, which interviewed 87 hedge fund managers, found that 38% are bearish on the S&P 500, a significantly higher percentage than were bearish in May (29% higher in fact). The managers were also rather downbeat on US treasuries and almost half expect the US to slip into another recession in the next year.

“Downbeat views on domestic stocks characterized the first half of 2011,” says Sol Waksman, founder and President of BarclayHedge. “Hedge fund managers were net bearish on the S&P 500 in four of the first six months of the year. The grim mood coincides with weak performance. The Barclay Hedge Fund Index shows a year-to-date return of just 1.8% after increasing 10.9% in 2010.”

June marked another difficult month for many hedge funds.

While hedge fund managers are still expressing a bullish sentiment on the US Dollar Index, they are growing vastly more pessimistic over US Treasuries. “Hedge fund managers may not like Treasuries, but our flow data shows that investors of all stripes are not shying from bonds,” notes Vincent Deluard, Executive Vice President at TrimTabs. “Bond mutual funds, bond ETFs, and fixed income hedge funds continue to post sizable inflows. Meanwhile, hedge fund managers tell us that they aim to increase leverage in the coming weeks even though they are relatively downbeat on stocks. Aggressive bets from this crowd could support equities in the second half of the year.”

Additional expectations from managers include:

  • An end to quantitative easing
  • Weaker corporate earnings for 2H2011
  • Another recession in the next year

“The recent correction in stock prices gave rise to fear,” notes Deluard. “Margin debt decreased for the first time in 11 months, short interest increased to the highest level in six months, and the speculative crowd turned net sellers of equity futures. But equities have rebounded smartly because recent economic data shows that the soft patch was not the start of something more serious, and we are interested to see how managers adjust.”

Source

Kirsten Bischoff

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. With $54bn in assets, Philippines is ready for hedge funds, alternative investment products[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: With the country's outstanding fund management industry at $54bn and growing, the Philippine market and its investors are ready to invest in "more sophisticated" asset management products, like hedge funds and alternative investments, said Deanno J. Basas, presi

  2. ...And Finally - Truth in advertising[more]

    From Newsoftheweird.com: Girl Scout Charlotte McCourt, 11, of South Orange, New Jersey, saw her sales zoom recently when she posted "brutally honest" reviews of the Scouts' cookies she was selling -- giving none of them a "10" and labeling some with dour descriptions. She was hoping to sell

  3. Europe - Brexit - Updated legal guide, Euro exchange rates set to tumble as hedge fund's super computer predicts Marine Le Pen will be next French president, Swiss fund market hits all-time high[more]

    Brexit - Updated legal guide From Herbertsmithfreehills.com: When we began analysing in depth the possibility of Britain exiting the EU (Brexit), 18 months prior to the June 2016 referendum, the business consensus was very much that Brexit was a remote prospect that either would never hap

  4. People - Gramercy appoints Bradshaw McKee as managing director of Capital Solutions, Trump taps Cerberus's Feinberg to lead intelligence review[more]

    Gramercy appoints Bradshaw McKee as managing director of Capital Solutions Gramercy Funds Management LLC, a $5.8 billion dedicated emerging markets investment manager, today announced the appointment of Bradshaw McKee to the position of Managing Director, Capital Solutions and Distressed

  5. Hedge fund investor redemptions accelerate through 2016[more]

    Despite hedge funds returning 7.40% over 2016, investors continued to withdraw capital over the year; the industry saw overall net asset outflows totalling $110bn in 2016. Preqin's latest research finds that the rate of redemptions accelerated through the year, from net outflows of $14bn in Q1 to $4