Wed, Jul 23, 2014
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

Hedge fund managers are bearish on US Treasuries, many expect another recession

Tuesday, July 05, 2011
Opalesque Industry Update – The outlook shared by many hedge fund managers is not particularly promising, according to a new report by TrimTabs Investment Research and BarclayHedge. The firms, which interviewed 87 hedge fund managers, found that 38% are bearish on the S&P 500, a significantly higher percentage than were bearish in May (29% higher in fact). The managers were also rather downbeat on US treasuries and almost half expect the US to slip into another recession in the next year.

“Downbeat views on domestic stocks characterized the first half of 2011,” says Sol Waksman, founder and President of BarclayHedge. “Hedge fund managers were net bearish on the S&P 500 in four of the first six months of the year. The grim mood coincides with weak performance. The Barclay Hedge Fund Index shows a year-to-date return of just 1.8% after increasing 10.9% in 2010.”

June marked another difficult month for many hedge funds.

While hedge fund managers are still expressing a bullish sentiment on the US Dollar Index, they are growing vastly more pessimistic over US Treasuries. “Hedge fund managers may not like Treasuries, but our flow data shows that investors of all stripes are not shying from bonds,” notes Vincent Deluard, Executive Vice President at TrimTabs. “Bond mutual funds, bond ETFs, and fixed income hedge funds continue to post sizable inflows. Meanwhile, hedge fund managers tell us that they aim to increase leverage in the coming weeks even though they are relatively downbeat on stocks. Aggressive bets from this crowd could support equities in the second half of the year.”

Additional expectations from managers include:

  • An end to quantitative easing
  • Weaker corporate earnings for 2H2011
  • Another recession in the next year

“The recent correction in stock prices gave rise to fear,” notes Deluard. “Margin debt decreased for the first time in 11 months, short interest increased to the highest level in six months, and the speculative crowd turned net sellers of equity futures. But equities have rebounded smartly because recent economic data shows that the soft patch was not the start of something more serious, and we are interested to see how managers adjust.”

Source

Kirsten Bischoff

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing
  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Events – AIMA Australian Hedge Fund Forum, Sept. 16, Sydney[more]

    AIMA Australia invite you to join us at our annual Hedge Fund Forum on Tuesday 16th September 2014 at the Sofitel Sydney Wentworth. The AIMA Australian Hedge Fund Forum is a non-profit hedge fund conference organised by the industry for the industry, featuring quality Australian and internation

  2. Opalesque Exclusive: Loeb, Grantham cite growing economic concerns in letters[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: Hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb, head of Third Point, and Jeremy Grantham of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. have both released their quarterly investor letters today. While news is positive on some fronts, and both men see pockets of opportunity, they also h

  3. Investing – Hedge funds expect Netflix earnings to catapult forward, Third Point's Loeb takes stakes in Fibra Uno, YPF, Royal DSM, Lake Capital in talks to back Engine Group[more]

    Hedge funds expect Netflix earnings to catapult forward From Investing.com: Netflix has made major strides forward in 2014 despite ongoing battles with the FCC and cable companies over the issue of net neutrality. The FCC has now received over 500,000 comments from the public on its pend

  4. Opalesque Roundtable: European family offices struggle to retain their investments in offshore hedge funds[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: The European Union’s Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD) will constrain investment opportunities amidst concern a number of U.S. fund managers will stop marketing their products in the European Union under the new rule, said Valentin Bohländer fro

  5. Opalesque Roundtable: Success in hedge fund marketing not linked to performance, but investor appetite[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Success in marketing a fund is not linked to the performance, but to investor appetite, to the way you can market the fund, and to how much time you can spend to raise assets, said Antoine Rolland, the CEO of incubator and seeding firm