Tue, Apr 24, 2018
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

Hedge fund managers' confidence in US equities falter slightly, but they remain bullish overall - Barclays TrimTabs

Monday, January 31, 2011
Opalesque Industry Update - Hedge fund managers are upbeat on U.S. equities but less bullish than a month ago, according to the TrimTabs/BarclayHedge Survey of Hedge Fund Managers for January. About 37% of the 91 hedge fund managers the firms surveyed in the past week are bullish on the S&P 500, down from 46% in January, while 26% are bearish, up from 19%.

“Less upbeat forecasts are somewhat surprising in that hedge fund managers performed exceptionally well in the final four months of 2010,” said Sol Waksman, founder and President of BarclayHedge. “Nevertheless, the January bullish reading is the second-highest since the inception of our survey in May 2010, while the bearish reading is the second-lowest. Hedge fund managers still have plenty of skin in the game.”

Hedge fund managers remain downbeat on the 10-year Treasury note, although they are less bearish than a month ago, while they shifted to neutral from bullish on the U.S. dollar index. A net 8% of managers aim to increase leverage in the coming weeks, down from 11% last month. Meanwhile, a host of other sentiment gauges reveals that investors of all stripes are especially bullish on domestic stocks.

“Even Google search trends underscore the expectation of higher stock prices and stronger economic growth,” noted Vincent Deluard, Executive Vice President at TrimTabs. “Searches for ‘economic depression’ plummeted in the past 18 months. Also, searches for ‘double-dip recession’ have virtually disappeared since August 2010, when the Fed announced QE2, while searches for ‘green shoots’ have spiked in January.”

The share of managers that cites large public deficits in the U.S. as the biggest risk to global economic growth (33%) is identical to the share that cites sovereign debt problems in Europe. Also, 41% of managers do not know what to expect from the Fed in the wake of QE2, but 67% expect bond prices to fall after it ends in June.

“Policymakers have proven wildly successful at keeping market participants guessing about what they will do after QE2 ends,” noted Deluard. “But we feel another round of QE is unlikely to alter the bond landscape. Yields across the curve stand between 30 and 100 basis points north of the 2010 lows despite heavy Fed Treasury purchases. Hedge fund managers are bearish on Treasuries and worried about public deficits, while mom and pop poured a gargantuan $641 billion into bond funds between January 2009 and October 2010. These are just a few of the reasons why we believe bonds are in the beginning stage of a secular bear market.”

Source

kb

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Investing - Sequoia takes Facebook stake as shares slide in data controversy, $1.4b hedge fund sees intact fundamentals for Facebook, Jim Cramer reveals some 'suggested hedge fund trades' amid the Trump tariffs[more]

    Sequoia takes Facebook stake as shares slide in data controversy From Bloomberg.com: The $4.2 billion Sequoia Fund bought a small position in Facebook Inc. as the stock slid late in the first quarter, investment manager Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb told clients. "The recent controversy enab

  2. Activist Investors - Blue Sky-owned Wild Breads faces uncertain future[more]

    From AFR.com: A Blue Sky private equity investment in artisan-style baker Wild Breads enjoyed multiple valuation upgrades despite losing millions and breaching its lending covenants, accounts lodged with the regulator last week show. Wild Breads lost $2.4 million in 2017, but Blue Sky ascribed a hig

  3. Opalesque Exclusive: Barnegat to close hedge fund to outside investors on weak opportunities[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Bob Treue's Barnegat Fund Management said it is closing its $666m fixed income relative value hedge fund to outside investors. "The negative side to gains in Fixed Income Arbitrage is that unless we find new opportunit

  4. Investing - Hedge fund makes a big bet on malls, British hedge fund manager Odey short UK government bonds on QE bet[more]

    Hedge fund makes a big bet on malls From Barrons.com: The dominant narrative on American shopping malls is that they're dead. Crushed by Amazon.com, many brick-and-mortar retail stores are destined for bankruptcy. And where is the most retail, clustered all together? Malls. From a

  5. Performance - Hedge funds suffer first back-to-back loss in two years, Netflix performance burns hedge fund short sellers, Macro hedge fund up 14.5% in first quarter sees dollar falling, Renaissance Technologies rebounds across hedge funds in March[more]

    Hedge funds suffer first back-to-back loss in two years From Bloomberg.com: Hedge Fund returns sank for a second straight month in March, the first back-to-back loss since the first two months of 2016, as trade wars, tech-sector woes and a Fed rate hike dragged down the S&P 500 from its