Mon, Jul 28, 2014
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

Hedge fund managers' confidence in US equities falter slightly, but they remain bullish overall - Barclays TrimTabs

Monday, January 31, 2011
Opalesque Industry Update - Hedge fund managers are upbeat on U.S. equities but less bullish than a month ago, according to the TrimTabs/BarclayHedge Survey of Hedge Fund Managers for January. About 37% of the 91 hedge fund managers the firms surveyed in the past week are bullish on the S&P 500, down from 46% in January, while 26% are bearish, up from 19%.

“Less upbeat forecasts are somewhat surprising in that hedge fund managers performed exceptionally well in the final four months of 2010,” said Sol Waksman, founder and President of BarclayHedge. “Nevertheless, the January bullish reading is the second-highest since the inception of our survey in May 2010, while the bearish reading is the second-lowest. Hedge fund managers still have plenty of skin in the game.”

Hedge fund managers remain downbeat on the 10-year Treasury note, although they are less bearish than a month ago, while they shifted to neutral from bullish on the U.S. dollar index. A net 8% of managers aim to increase leverage in the coming weeks, down from 11% last month. Meanwhile, a host of other sentiment gauges reveals that investors of all stripes are especially bullish on domestic stocks.

“Even Google search trends underscore the expectation of higher stock prices and stronger economic growth,” noted Vincent Deluard, Executive Vice President at TrimTabs. “Searches for ‘economic depression’ plummeted in the past 18 months. Also, searches for ‘double-dip recession’ have virtually disappeared since August 2010, when the Fed announced QE2, while searches for ‘green shoots’ have spiked in January.”

The share of managers that cites large public deficits in the U.S. as the biggest risk to global economic growth (33%) is identical to the share that cites sovereign debt problems in Europe. Also, 41% of managers do not know what to expect from the Fed in the wake of QE2, but 67% expect bond prices to fall after it ends in June.

“Policymakers have proven wildly successful at keeping market participants guessing about what they will do after QE2 ends,” noted Deluard. “But we feel another round of QE is unlikely to alter the bond landscape. Yields across the curve stand between 30 and 100 basis points north of the 2010 lows despite heavy Fed Treasury purchases. Hedge fund managers are bearish on Treasuries and worried about public deficits, while mom and pop poured a gargantuan $641 billion into bond funds between January 2009 and October 2010. These are just a few of the reasons why we believe bonds are in the beginning stage of a secular bear market.”

Source

kb

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing
  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Events – AIMA Australian Hedge Fund Forum, Sept. 16, Sydney[more]

    AIMA Australia invite you to join us at our annual Hedge Fund Forum on Tuesday 16th September 2014 at the Sofitel Sydney Wentworth. The AIMA Australian Hedge Fund Forum is a non-profit hedge fund conference organised by the industry for the industry, featuring quality Australian and internation

  2. Opalesque Roundtable: Success in hedge fund marketing not linked to performance, but investor appetite[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Success in marketing a fund is not linked to the performance, but to investor appetite, to the way you can market the fund, and to how much time you can spend to raise assets, said Antoine Rolland, the CEO of incubator and seeding firm

  3. Hedge fund manager Winton Capital making headway with long-only strategy[more]

    From PIonline.com: North American investors are helping Winton Capital Management Ltd. make progress — albeit slowly — toward its founder's goal of becoming a $100 billion company. The firm's ticket to quadrupling its assets under management is unlikely to be one of its scientifically designed manag

  4. Opalesque Radio: Now is a good time to buy protection cheaply in the options market[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva: Investors are showing an increased interest in risk parity funds and strategies, Opalesque reported last year. Risk parity strategies have the

  5. Winton’s low-cost equities fund tops $1bn for first time[more]

    From FT.com: Winton, the London-based hedge fund, has increased the assets in its low-cost equities fund to more than $1bn for the first time in a sign that traditional stock managers may come under increasing pressure from computer-driven rivals. Winton, which manages about $25bn in total ass