Fri, Aug 28, 2015
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

Kleinwort Benson: More ‘Blue Sky’ ahead: “Gold trending higher”

Tuesday, November 02, 2010
Opalesque Industry Update - Gold has prospered as investors have sought ‘safe haven’ assets and protection against inflation. Gold is up c. 70% in 3 years and almost 25% since the beginning of the year, and with analysts at Goldman Sachs recently predicting that the spot price will be at USD 1,650 in a year’s time, some analysts are talking of Gold as a bubble waiting to burst.

Kleinwort Benson’s Head of Advisory Portfolio Management, Andrew Thompson, believes that Gold may well become a bubble in due course and if so, it will burst - as all bubbles tend to do. However, for now, he is encouraging his ‘Trend Following’ clients to stick with their Gold positions and to protect the downside via Trailing Stops.

Gold is also seen as a ‘currency of last resort’ and the spectre of an all-out Foreign Exchange war is adding to Gold’s appeal. At c. USD 1,355 Gold is currently trading at an all-time high. Some investors believe that the very fact that Gold is trading at an all-time high is indicative of a bubble and is grounds for selling the commodity. This is not consistent with Thompson’s Trend Following investment philosophy. Indeed, Thompson points out that when Gold finally broke through USD 1,000 in September 2009, there were plenty of analysts decrying the commodity as a bubble. Since then Gold has gained a further 36%.

Thompson also points out that Gold is very difficult to value from a fundamental perspective (because it has no yield), thus its price has the potential to be driven much, much higher by the dual forces of ‘Fear and Greed’. For now Gold remains in the clearest of primary up-trends and more ‘blue sky’ beckons, with some financial commentators forecasting price targets of USD 1,500, USD 2,000 and some even suggesting the price could go as high as USD 6,000.

In a poll taken amongst bankers, producers and analysts attending the London Bullion Market Association conference in Berlin recently - one of the biggest gatherings of the precious metal’s industry – the consensus view was that Gold will rise to USD 1,450 a troy ounce in the next year.

In the short-term, Thompson accepts that Gold is looking ‘overbought’ and some sort of correction is all but inevitable. Thompson’s Trend Following clients are likely to use any such correction to add to existing Gold holdings. In the meantime, they are protecting the downside by raising their Trailing Stops.

Gold is one of 15 or so themes that Thompson is following and in which the Bank’s clients are investing via his Trend Following Managed Advisory Service.

(press release)


The Kleinwort Benson Managed Advisory Service is designed for experienced and financially sophisticated, high net worth clients who want to work with their investment adviser in identifying major market themes and trends and who wish to receive personalised advice on their investments and the management of their portfolios. Risk management is at the core of its investment philosophy. Clients are alerted to investment opportunities and with regular advice on the management and composition of their portfolios, the client maintaining the decision to purchase, hold or sell an investment. www.kleinwortbenson.com/ourservices/managedadvisoryservice


Bg

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Commodities - Commodity hedge funds lose most in three years as rout deepens, Funds bet on Shell deal as oil prices plunge[more]

    Commodity hedge funds lose most in three years as rout deepens From Bloomberg.com: Hedge funds betting on commodities lost the most in almost three years in July as the price-rout deepened. Funds lost money for a third month, according to the Newedge Commodity Trading Index, which was re

  2. Investing - Hedge funds suddenly find real money is back in Argentina's debt, Elon Musk buys more SolarCity stock following hedge fund manager short, BlackRock plans to get into rental-home financing[more]

    Hedge funds suddenly find real money is back in Argentina's debt From Bloomberg.com: The real money is back in Argentina. Before the country’s default in July 2014 (its second in 13 years), most long-term investors abandoned its bond market. As they rushed out, Argentina became a favorit

  3. JTC acquires Kleinwort Benson’s fund administration business[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: JTC has completed the acquisition of Kleinwort Benson’s fund administration business, boosting assets under administration (AuA) to $56 billion. Kleinwort Benson is based in the Channel Islands, South Africa. The transaction, which relates to the whole of K

  4. Performance - Hedge funds set to bank millions by short selling during London share slump, The China market chaos has made this hedge fund its most money in 2 years, Odey hedge fund said to surge 9% betting against China, Hedge funds with long-held bearish views on China rack up profits, Hedge funds in U.S. seen curbing damage from August turbulence, Hedge funds collect on their predictions of a fall, How did managed futures do while the Dow was down 1000[more]

    Hedge funds set to bank millions by short selling during London share slump From TheGuardian.com: Hedge funds are set to bank tens of millions of pounds from the slump in share prices in London, having bet almost £18bn that the FTSE 100 would fall. The funds making the bets include Lansd

  5. Opalesque Exclusive: John C Head IV leaves alternative investment firm Gallery Capital, David Harrison joins as co-CIO[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva for New Managers: John C Head IV, former president and co-founder of Gallery Capital Management, an alternative inv

 

banner