Thu, Oct 19, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

Only 17% of hedge fund managers bullish on S&P 500, according to TrimTabs/BarclayHedge survey

Monday, August 30, 2010
Opalesque Industry Update - Managers neutral on dollar. Hedge fund managers upbeat on Treasuries, and most want Bush tax cuts extended.

Only 17% of hedge fund managers are bullish on the S&P 500, according to the TrimTabs/BarclayHedge Survey of Hedge Fund Managers for August. About 47% of the 104 hedge fund managers the firms surveyed in the past week are bearish on stocks, up markedly from 33% in July.

“Bearish sentiment skipped sharply higher, and bullish sentiment plunged,” said Sol Waksman, CEO of BarclayHedge. “Meanwhile, short interest is heaviest in the most cyclical sectors, and from a seasonality standpoint September is far and away the worst month of the year for stocks. The developments hedge fund managers are telegraphing bode ill for equities.”

Sentiment on the U.S. dollar is evenly split, as 29% of managers are bullish and 29% are bearish. Almost half of managers were upbeat on the greenback just three months ago. As to U.S. debt, only 17% of managers are bearish on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes. Bullish sentiment vaulted to 36% from 14% in the past two months.

“Many fund managers have had their heads handed to them betting on an increase in long-term interest rates,” said Vincent Deluard, Executive Vice President at TrimTabs. “If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em? Retail investors continue to exhibit an insatiable appetite for bonds—bond mutual funds have sucked in a staggering $679 billion since the start of 2009. Mom and pop are disgusted with U.S. equities, so bond fund inflows are bound to bloat further.”

About 63% of managers want to see the Bush tax cuts extended in some form. Half of managers think decreased deficit spending is warranted, while 18% feel the government should spend more. Almost all of the managers who prefer tighter monetary policy also prefer tighter fiscal policy.

“These ‘double’ hawks are pessimistic about the economy and stocks—only 6% of them are bullish on the S&P 500,” noted Deluard. “They realize their policy prescription is too distasteful for the government and the Fed, and they fear that record deficits and ‘exceptionally low policy rates for an extended period’ read a bit too much like another Greek Tragedy.”

(Press release)


The TrimTabs/BarclayHedge database tracks hedge fund flows on a monthly basis. The Survey of Hedge Fund Managers appears monthly in the TrimTabs/BarclayHedge Hedge Fund Flow Report, which provides detailed analysis of hedge fund flows, assets, and returns alongside topical studies. For further information, please visit http://www.barclayhedge.com/products/trimtabs-hedge-fund-flow-report.html


TrimTabs/BarclayHedge Survey of Hedge Fund

 

Bullish

Neutral

Bearish

Managers for August 2010

 

S&P 500

Jul-10

33.90%

33.10%

33.10%

Aug-10

17.30%

35.60%

47.10%

10-Year U.S. Treasury Note

Jul-10

34.50%

49.60%

16.00%

Aug-10

36.00%

47.00%

17.00%

U.S. Dollar Index

Jul-10

21.90%

49.00%

29.20%

Aug-10

29.00%

42.00%

29.00%


BarclayHedge is a leading hedge fund data vendor and one of the foremost sources for proprietary research in the field of alternative investments. From its origin as a research specialist and performance measurement firm, BarclayHedge has developed complete client services as a publisher, database and software provider, and industry consultant. www.barclayhedge.com


TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity—including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows—as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. www.TrimTabs.com


Bg

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Regulatory - David Stockman: Trump tax reform overhaul is a pipe dream, stocks are heading for 40-70% plunge, Carried interest tax: How much does it matter?, Odey sees 'terrifying' mix in MiFID, tapering, asset values, Hedge funds come together to share cost of MiFID and research, SEC turns up the heat on U.S. investment advisers, India's Sebi asks hedge funds to report investments in commodity derivatives[more]

    David Stockman: Trump tax reform overhaul is a pipe dream, stocks are heading for 40-70% plunge From CNBC.com: David Stockman is warning about the Trump administration's tax overhaul plan, Federal Reserve policy, saying they could play into a severe stock market sell-off. Stockman, the R

  2. North America - Puerto Rico rejects loan offers, accusing hedge funds of trying to profit off hurricanes[more]

    From TheIintercept.com: Puerto Rico has rejected a bondholder group's offer to issue the territory additional debt as a response to the devastation of Hurricane Maria. Officials with Puerto Rico's Fiscal Agency and Financial Advisory Authority said the offer was "not viable" and would harm the islan

  3. Investing - WPP targeted by short-selling American hedge fund, Sun co-founder sells secretive hedge fund on big chip trade[more]

    WPP targeted by short-selling American hedge fund From Cityam.com: An American hedge fund has mounted a bet against WPP, the world's largest advertising group, with a trade worth almost £90m. Lone Pine Capital has built a short position worth 0.51 per cent of the FTSE 100 company,

  4. Hedge funds up as industry adjusts to rising rates[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Hedge funds have reshuffled their portfolio after nearly four weeks of rising rates as the Lyxor Hedge Fund Index was up +0.2% from 19 September to 26 (+1.1% YTD), fuelled by strong results of global macro funds, Lyxor Ass

  5. Manager Profile - How the world's hedge fund king used 'idea meritocracy' to become a billionaire[more]

    From Forbes.com: In 1982, Ray Dalio made what he calls the biggest mistake of his life. He made a bet that there would be an economic collapse stemming from a debt crisis. And he was wrong. He lost money. He lost his client's money. He had to let people go from his firm and borrow money from his dad