Mon, Sep 26, 2016
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

2009 outlook (7) – Opposing views on the fate of emerging markets: economists vs. Ashmore

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London. See yesterday’s 2009 outlook (5) here.

Economists see collapse of emerging markets

A problem with hedge funds is that some of them, according to Saxo Bank’s estimates, are partly correlated to the stock markets and to emerging markets. Chief economist David Karsbøl believes that most hedge funds have not brought their exposure to emerging markets down enough. “This is going to hit them,” he said.

Saxo Bank has very bearish views on E.M. economies which are not expected to recover before the Western economies. “Especially Eastern Europe, which is way too dependent on foreign capital,” he added.

Indeed Strauss-Kahn recently declared the IMF needed an additional $150bln to help emerging economies. “Just to keep Eastern Europe going in the first part of the year,” Karsbøl specified. “And I very much concur.” (See Outlook (4) for more on Eastern European economies.)

The same goes for areas which are export-oriented such as South-East Asian economies. Taiwan’s, South Korea’s and China’s exports have plunged in 2008. And those economies have no plan B, says Karsbøl. The Chinese are now sitting on a huge pile of U.S. debt and they have no plan as to who to produce for, as they have no domestic consumptio......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. North America - Acela fight splits hedge fund Connecticut and old money enclaves[more]

    From Bloomberg.com: Connecticut’s residential coastline is two worlds, the one of newcomer millionaires and one whose wealth and New England roots span generations. Now, their differences over a rail route threaten to gum up plans for the U.S. Northeast’s fastest-ever trains. About 30 miles from Man

  2. Activist News - Caesars offers creditors another $1.6bn, would spell end of hedge fund ownership, Activist investors double chance of CEO exits[more]

    Caesars offers creditors another $1.6bn, would spell end of hedge fund ownership From Calvinayre.com: Casino operator Caesars Entertainment has improved its offer to junior creditors to over $5b, but the offer is only good until Friday. On Wednesday, Caesars added an extra $1.6b to the $

  3. Nobel Sustainability Trust, Prince Albert II of Monaco help launch major new initiative to drive sustainable technologies[more]

    Matthias Knab, Opalesque: The Nobel Sustainability® Trust ("NST") is leading a major new initiative to finance, incubate and accelerate the development of clean technologies. The initiative will start with the formation of the Nobel Sustainability Fund® ("NSF"). NSF will drive faster access t

  4. Hedge funds saw four consecutive months of outflows in August, but assets still up by $17.6bn YTD[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Hedge funds witnessed four consecutive months of outflows with investor redemptions totaling $23.8bn as of end of August, data provider Eurekahedge said in its monthly report. But total hedge fund assets grew by

  5. Trend reversals lead to losses as managed futures drops 1.52% in August[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Trend reversals in August have led managed futures traders to lose 1.52% last month according to the Barclay CTA Index compiled by BarclayHedge. The Index is up 0.62% year to dat