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By the Opalesque Team: See last week’s 2009 outlook (3) here.
According to Marcus Svedberg, chief economist at East Capital, the most immediate effect of the global credit crisis, which dominated the second half of 2008, will be over and the main concern will shift from the financial markets to the real economy.
All economies in Eastern Europe will experience a dramatic deceleration in economic growth in 2009 after almost a decade of very rapid growth. The medium-long term catch-up potential is still there but most economies will grow below potential in 2009 and some will go through a difficult adjustment period with negative growth rates.
The fact that 2009 will be a very challenging year in the real economy does not necessarily mean that the financial markets will be under pressure. This does not imply that they necessarily will perform strongly, some might even be pressed down further, but rather illustrates that financial markets and underlying economies do not always move in tandem.
Economic growth was overall strong in Eastern Europe in 2008 whereas most markets corrected substantially, which has resulted in very attractive valuations. The slowdown in underlying growth means that investments and consumption as well as exports will be reduced and corporate earnings pressed down. There should, however, be some selective markets, sectors and companies that will perform ...................... To view our full article Click here
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