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Commodities Briefing 16.Mar 2012

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Seaborne oil exports from OPEC, excluding Angola and Ecuador, will fall by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to March 31, an analyst who estimates future shipments said on Thursday.
Exports will reach 23.41 million bpd on average, down from 23.57 million bpd in the four weeks to March 3, UK consultancy Oil Movements said in its latest weekly estimate………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

David FyfeThe International Energy Agency (IEA) claims that Iranian oil exports could fall by as much as 50 percent in July, when European sanctions over that country’s nuclear program take full effect.
The IEA said in a report issued on March 14 that Iranian crude output fell to 3.38 million barrels per day last month, the lowest level in at least three years, and that exports were below 2 million barrels, down from 2.6 million in November………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

India and South Korea have increased oil imports from Iran despite the United States’ plea for the two countries to reduce their dependence on the Iranian crude, says the International Energy Agency (IEA).
According to an IEA report, released on Wednesday, both Seoul and New Delhi sharply raised their oil purchases from Iran in January………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

U.S. crude futures rose on Friday, after dropping for two straight sessions, as robust economic data in the world’s top oil consumer countered news that the United States and Britain were preparing a release from strategic oil stocks this year.
NYMEX crude for April delivery was up 41 cents at $105.52 a barrel by 0022 GMT, after settling down 32 cents at $105.11 on Thursday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The recent market trend has been to unwind safe-haven exposures, such as gold, and buy growth assets, said UBS in a research note.
“This is clear in the resumption of easing correlations between gold and risk assets. The 20-day rolling correlation between gold and the S&P 500 indexes has fallen back to 0.39 after climbing sharply in the last couple of weeks to this year’s high of 0.55 as of last Friday,” bank added………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold traders are the least bullish in two months after prices erased more than half of this year’s gain on speculation that a strengthening U.S. economy will dissuade the Federal Reserve from buying more debt.
Thirteen of 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week and four were neutral, the lowest proportion since Jan. 20. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The gold price crept higher towards $1,650 per ounce early in London on Thursday, adding 0.9% from yesterday’s new 8-week low as crude oil and industrial commodities slipped once again.
Silver bullion bounced 2.3% to $32.40 per ounce, but held more than 5% down for the week after being “very much influenced” by the gold price falling through $1,700 on Tuesday, according to a Swiss dealer………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The behavior of gold stocks during this gold bull market is really not that different to the gold bull market of the ‘70s. It was not until almost the end of the bull market (in 1979) that the gold stocks really started to take-off.
Those who think gold stocks will not rise during this bull market will be disappointed, and need to consider the evidence presented here………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The gold market is searching for support from physical demand, which has been “fickle” lately, said Barclays Capital in a research note.
According to Barclays, market watchers will be looking to see whether such demand, particularly from the Far East, picks up after a recent price decline pushed gold below its 200-day moving average as the probability for further quantitative easing in the U.S. declined………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Investors and savers cannot know that they are buying an uptrend instead of the top. Gold took very nearly 28 years to recover the big top of Jan. 1980 - way up there at $850 per ounce. That topped the 25-year recovery in US stocks after 1929’s Great Crash.
We won’t know if Japan sets a new record pause with its stocks and real estate until November 2017. But the 30-year bull market in US Treasury bonds is sure to leave a heavenly high-water mark when interest rates turn upwards from today’s all-time historic lows………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The CEO of Aurubis , Europe’s biggest copper producer, said he is confident of strong copper demand from China this year despite forecasts of lower growth in the country.
The copper market was concerned about the cut in China’s forecast economic growth to 7.5 percent in 2012 as the country accounts for 40 percent of global copper demand, Peter Willbrandt said on Thursday at the Metal Bulletin international copper conference in Hamburg………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Higher palladium and platinum prices are what John Lee, Chairman of Prophecy Platinum Corp predicted at the Bloomberg Link Precious Metals Conference in New York.
Lee believes that investor demand will be so high that palladium prices will jump to $1000/oz this year, a 30% increase from current levels of $700/oz. On platinum, Lee believes that that the metal could in fact surpass gold once again- by a premium of 20%-30%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The demand for Uranium is increasing, despite Japanese nuclear disaster, and countries will continue to depend on Uranium to meet their energy requirements, says Sasha Cekeravac, co-editor of Penny Stocks Detectives.
In a recent article, Cekeravac says the U.S. is now proceeding with building the first nuclear power plant in over 30 years, while Japan, China, and India have not slowed down their significant investments in uranium which supports the statement that countries need uranium to meet their energy demands………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

At the core of economic and industrial growth is always demand or lack thereof for base metals. After all they are at the well-springs of overall growth. Copper for example has been nicknamed Mr. or Dr. Copper given a PhD in economic forecasting abilities regarding future economic conditions.
For copper and other base metals, the higher the demand the rosier will be the future………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Of all of the commodities that have experienced a fair amount of volatility as of late, none have fared worse than natural gas. This asset has been one of the more frustrating commodities over the past few years, as it has continually hit new lows while many called it undervalued, only to watch it lob off even more of its price.
Already in 2012, NG futures have sank over 27%, and a quick glance at its historical performance reveals a nasty downward trend that has persisting starting with the 2008 recession………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

At least two major commodity funds have missed out on this year’s oil rally, one of the energy market’s biggest since the financial crisis, market sources said.
BlueGold and Clive Capital, both based in London and known for taking big bets on oil, have relatively weak returns to show for the first two months of the year when crude prices put in one of their strongest two-month performances since 2009………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Asset manager Man Group aims to attract new institutional and wealthy retail clients with a commodity fund that uses hedge fund techniques and computer models, but in a traditional long-only format.
A wave of investment has entered commodities over the past decade from pension funds and other investors seeking diversification from equities and fixed income, but much of it is in passive index funds which underperform in weak markets such as last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Proactive management of operational risk is critical to ensuring an organisation responds effectively to ever-changing market conditions and regulatory environments. Julie Shochat and Kenzel Fallen outline how to align strategy, processes and technologies to effectively mitigate operational risks and meet future regulatory demands.
Commodity trading organisations have faced numerous types of risk throughout the evolution of the industry. In today’s market, anticipating and responding to various operational risks has become particularly challenging and increasingly critical………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

One of the most important developments in the foreign exchange market is the fragmentation of the risk-on/risk-off matrix that was a key feature since the onset of the financial crisis.
While cognizant of the nonlinear nature of the capital markets and the fact that returns are not normally distributed, we continue to find use in monitoring the correlation between individual currencies and the U.S. S&P 500. Numerous portfolio managers we talk to also watch these closely………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

China’s plans to widen the yuan trading band yuan may lead to more volatility in the so-called dim sum bonds, hastening the development of the fledgling offshore derivatives market.
More flexible yuan trading may also lead to active arbitrage opportunities as well as speculation risks, while issuers who have so far been enjoying the twin benefits of low yields and a rising renminbi, may have to prepare for higher costs………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 March 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Evidence the Australian dollar rally has overshot — as the Reserve Bank of Australia has been warning — came flooding in this week, increasing the chance of an interest rate cut next month.
RBA deputy governor Phil Lowe warned a week ago that currencies can rise too high, reaching a point where their strength does more damage than good………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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