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Commodities Briefing 16.Feb 2011

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Eastern members of the European Union are “deeply” concerned about the increase in food and commodity prices and urge the 27-nation bloc to seek a common method to tackle it, Slovak Prime Minister Iveta Radicova said.
The global increase is driven by speculation and individual countries aren’t able to influence it, Radicova said after meeting with her Czech, Polish and Hungarian counterparts in the Slovak capital, Bratislava. The prime ministers of the four countries are asking the EU to deal with the issue as early as its March summit, she said……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From AFP: Brazil said Tuesday it opposed a French plan to impose regulation on commodity prices, saying it could have “negative effects” on major suppliers such as itself. “Brazil is totally opposed to a mechanism of control or regulation of commodity prices,” Finance Minister Guido Mantega told reporters, reiterating a position he gave last week.
France has said it plans to use its chair of the G20 group of big developed and developing nations to push for commodity price regulation in a bid to block what it saw a speculation in the market of food crops such as grain and cereals……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: British bank Barclays increased its commodity trading risk exposure by 15 percent in 2010 after scaling it back in 2009, the bank said in a full-year results report on Tuesday.
Barclays, which does not disclose its quarterly risk figures, reported its average daily value-at-risk rise at 16 million pounds ($25.7 million) in 2010, up from 14 million pounds a year earlier……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Citywire.co.uk: Fidelity’s Sanjeev Shah believes it is a fertile time for special situations investing with valuations in the financial and drugs sector looking particularly appealing, but commodity prices leave him queasy.
Shah (pictured), who manages the £3.1 billion Citywire Selection Fidelity Special Situations fund, says he has identified a significant number of valuation anomalies in the UK market………………………………………Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Marketwatch.com: Commodity prices are currently surging, particularly industrial metals such as copper and many agricultural products. That surge has been widely covered. What has not been covered so much is that commodity prices are still well below the level reached in 2008.
I’m not saying commodities won’t go higher. In fact, this is good news for those who believe commodities have a long ways to go……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Xinhua: China on Tuesday reported lower than expected consumer inflation in January, but pressure remains for the government to control inflation as the situation is complicated by ongoing drought and high global commodity prices.
The consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, rose 4.9 percent in January year on year due to surging food prices, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced Tuesday……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Resourceintelligence.net: Red-hot copper hit another new all-time high this week, extending its mighty upleg to a 66.6% gain since June! As always after any strong run, investors and speculators are pretty excited about this essential base metal these days. But this incredible bullishness, along with overbought technicals, actually suggests copper is on the verge of a major correction today.
Corrections are perfectly normal, necessary, and unavoidable within even the strongest bull markets. All prices flow and ebb, advancing two steps forward before retreating one step back……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Seekingalpha.com: All indications are that by 2020 auto companies will be manufacturing more EVs and hybrid electric vehicles than gas powered cars. Certainly that is the case for China, India and Europe. America will trail this world-changing development, but will eventually be brought into the lithium economy kicking and screaming.
Rather than placing bets on which of the hundreds of labs around the world will develop the best battery, best technology or the most stable catalyst in its uses, I have been placing my money on the producers of lithium - specifically the small- and mid-tier group that for the past two years have staked the best lithium properties around the world……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Metals demand in India, Asia’s second-fastest growing major economy, may double in five years and remain robust for a decade, fueled by rising car sales and higher spending on infrastructure projects, analysts said.
Growth in demand for base metals may jump 10 percent to 15 percent this year, said Sumit Verma, an analyst at broker Geojit Comtrade Ltd……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.co.za: Noting metals are entering “uncharted territory” in 2011 with a series of firsts and new landmarks being set along the way, Barclays Capital commodities analysts revised metals price forecasts higher to reflect positive fundamentals and tighter market balances.
“Out in front, and by a big margin, are the trailbreakers copper and tin,” said the analysts……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From WSJ: Investors have been flocking to precious metals as a safe haven, boosting prices for the likes of gold and platinum. But that’s putting a squeeze on companies that use the metals in industries as varied as construction equipment and film making.
Precious metals tend to keep their value even as inflation and economic uncertainty hurt investments like stocks and bonds. That has fueled a flood of investment in exchange-traded funds, which track benchmark indexes, that are backed by gold and other metals……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.co.za: Rare earths stormed into the public spotlight in 2010 over fears that China’s policy of curbing exports will cause global shortages. In 2011, the game is shifting, as investors look for winners in the race to break China’s stranglehold on this tightly controlled group of high-tech metals.
Here is a look at the key factors analysts say investors should look for when investing in rare earth plays, and the top four prospects by market cap:………………………………………Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Resourceinvestor.com: The global economic recovery is gaining traction. Several leading indicators, such as business and consumer confidence, are pointing towards a solid recovery of services and manufacturing activity in Germany and the United States.
In spite of a slow recovery in the West of give or take 1.5 to 3%, Asia is still growing at a 6 to 8% annual rate. More importantly, the global economy is growing at 4% annually, which is quite a healthy backdrop……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Marketoracle.co.uk: A mixed bag in the metals sector today, which bears close watching for the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), Silver Wheaton (SLW), the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX).
The SLV is pushing up towards a challenge of its Jan high at $30.44, although for the first time since the pivot low on Jan 25, the SLV is not leading the charge today. Instead, SLW is out front. The change in profile is bothersome to me, as the SLV needs to retake the leadership role……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Hardassetsinvestor.com: When you hold—as Soros does—4,721,808 shares of GLD, any slight percentage change in your holdings translates into potentially huge moves for the vehicle. And since GLD, with more than $52 billion in assets under management, dominates the gold ETP scene, what happens in GLD tends to greatly influence the rest of the gold market.
But this is a nonstory. Amid European economic uncertainty and a tightening Chinese economy, Soros decides to hold onto his gold—well, it doesn’t take an investing genius to make that call……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodity Online: Investors liquidated large quantities of exchange traded funds (ETFs) in gold and silver as prices of these precious metals dropped in January in response to strong Chinese GDP figures and market nervousness in the expectation of more monetary tightening from the Chinese authorities, says a precious metals analysis from Standard Bank.
Where does the gold-silver ratio stands, and why investors are liquidating gold and silver ETFs? Here is an indepth analysis on gold and silver from Standard Bank:………………………………………Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Guardian: Is it 260bn or 550bn barrels? Should we believe the Americans or the Saudis? The answer may lie in the provenance of the information. Does anyone know how much oil Saudi Arabia has left? Last week a series of US diplomatic cables from 2007-2009 and released by WikiLeaks suggested that senior US embassy staff were warning Washington that reserves could be 40% less than stated and that “peak oil” might be imminent.
The source of this new information was Sadad al-Husseini, a senior geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco who, the cables revealed, disputed the official figure of 716bn barrels of total reserves……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Tradearabia.com: Iraqi oil output will double in the next decade, not quadruple as in initial government targets, but the country could still test Saudi Arabia’s influence in Opec, oil major Shell said.
In its energy scenarios to 2050, published for the first time since 2008, Royal Dutch/Shell said Iraq was a key uncertainty in the oil supply picture, with output likely to reach 5-6 million barrels per day over the next decade if reasonable stability and security are achieved……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Seekingalpha.com: In the intertest of balance, since after all, in every trade there are two parties with exactly opposite visions of the future, I though I’d go through a few counter-arguments that support the idea that the oil price will go higher at some point in the near future.
Keep in mind that a lot of these ideas are not mutually exclusive with my previous post arguing that oil prices should be lower, but might be a matter of timing…. The time horizon on some of these situations might be somewhat longer……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Investorsoffshore.com: The international derivatives exchange Eurex is set to launch new equity options based on leading German companies and will soon commence trading in new dividend futures based on the dividends of major UK firms.
The 11 new German equity option contracts will be based on the shares of Allianz, BASF, Bayer, Commerzbank, Daimler, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Telekom, EON, RWE, SAP and Siemens and are due to launch on February 21……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Dow Jones: The U.S. will likely leverage many of the major economic issues at the upcoming conference of the Group of 20 largest economies as an opportunity to continue pressuring China on its currency policy.
The G-20 will tackle rebalancing the global economy and emerging-market concerns about volatile capital flows and commodity-price inflation as some of its top priorities when world financial leaders meet in Paris, France later this week……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Smh.com.au: A ”hybrid” model of a fixed carbon price leading to an emissions trading scheme is likely to be agreed by the multi-party climate committee on Friday as the foundation for a new greenhouse reduction policy.
Federal cabinet has approved the preferred model, which was proposed by the Greens as a compromise after Kevin Rudd’s emissions trading scheme was defeated in the Senate in late 2009……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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