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Commodities Briefing 14.Feb 2011

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Indiatimes.com: For the first time since their inception seven years ago, turnover on commodity futures exchange looks likely to exceed that of stock and index futures in a financial year on the back of rising commodity prices and growing trading interest.
While stock market fortunes have been more volatile over the past one year, commodity prices have by and large been rising on account of the global economic recovery and international funds moving cheap money in search of higher returns……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From WSJ: Chinese companies are paying a heavy price to participate in North America’s natural-gas boom in a bet on gaining vital new technology and access to a bountiful new source of energy.
Technological advances have opened up massive new gas fields in North America, creating opportunity for Asia’s energy-hungry countries. The technology taps gas trapped in rock, called shale gas……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Gulfnews.com: As good as they are, I hope WikiLeaks cables will not become our reference for everything that goes around the world — including the evolution of the oil market. The headline in the Guardian February 8, 2011 says: “WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices,” as if Saudi Arabia’s only mandate is to keep a lid on prices for the industrial west to enjoy everlasting growth at the expense of depleting developing countries resources.
The article by John Vidal, the environment editor, goes on to say that “the US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating,” thereby creating the impression that the country is running out of oil……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Guardian: Europe could save €900bn (£762bn) and still hit its 2050 carbon reduction targets if it built fewer wind farms and more gas plants, a coalition of gas producers including Gazprom, Centrica and Qatar Petroleum has told the European commission.
The industry is lobbying against the possibility of the commission setting new renewable energy targets and phasing out the use of gas. Next month, it will publish a draft “road map” energy strategy to 2050……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Resourceinvestor.com: James Turk forecast that gold could reach $8,000 per ounce by 2013-2015. He added that that may be too conservative. Turk, the founder of digital gold currency GoldMoney, said individuals should own bullion not as an investment, but as a wealth preserver.
“Gold is not a commodity. It is not volatile. It is not an investment. Gold is money,” Turk said……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.co.za: GoldMoney CEO, James Turk says surging physical demand for the metals is pushing them into backwardation and should see gold hitting $2,000 per ounce this year. After a record breaking run during the course of 2010 and, indeed, the last 10 years, gold took a breather in January.
Part of the reason for the decline was a movement out of gold by investors in Europe and the US who had bought the metal as protection against further declines in the health of the global economic system……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Hedge funds are piling back into New York gold futures and options as turmoil in Egypt sent bullish bets on the metal to the highest since April 2010, government data show. Holdings in silver also increased.
Managed-money funds held net-long positions, or wagers on rising prices, totaling 145,846 contracts on the Comex as of Feb. 2, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Feb. 11. The holdings jumped 17 percent, after five straight weeks of declines……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.co.za: Changes in the structure of gold markets where most transactions no longer involve the transfer of physical gold make some technical analysts’ conclusions irrelevant. Over the last eight years or so we have seen the Technical Analysis approach to the gold price give incorrect signals, when seen in isolation.
Many times the technical picture pointed down on the gold price in the face of a strong fundamental picture. We know that this has wrong-footed many gold investors who found themselves waiting for a fall only to see it consolidate then rise……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Bloomberg: Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third- largest mining company, forecasts high copper prices will continue amid rising demand and before output from new projects eases a supply shortfall.
“We will see a continued period of strong copper pricing, largely because many of the large mines, including our own, are seeing declining grades, deepening pits,” Tom Albanese, chief executive officer of London-based Rio Tinto, said……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Resourceinvestor.com: Copper production is likely to continue to fall short of demand into 2012 and possibly 2013, driving prices to an average of $9,200 per tonne this year and $10,000 per tonne next year, an analyst with Standard Bank said.
Walter de Wet, head of commodity research for the Johannesburg-based banking group, said strong demand in emerging markets and especially China was driving pricing. “We expect demand to increase in all regions, even in developed markets, not because growth is so strong but simply because they are coming from a low base,” he said……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Commodityonline.com: Red-hot copper hit another new all-time high this week, extending its mighty upleg to a 66.6% gain since June! As always after any strong run, investors and speculators are pretty excited about this essential base metal these days. But this incredible bullishness, along with overbought technicals, actually suggests copper is on the verge of a major correction.
Corrections are perfectly normal, necessary, and unavoidable within even the strongest bull markets. All prices flow and ebb, advancing two steps forward before retreating one step back……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: We continue to be very bullish on the price of uranium. It’s had a very good run of late and we see that continuing for many of the same reasons that Macquarie does. I think for the early part of the year $75 is a good number, but it could surpass that substantially by year-end. By then, we think that the price will be at the $100 level and maybe even higher.
We’ve got China doing quite a lot of stockpiling, especially on the spot market. We see the producers as being overcommitted right now. We also think that financial-speculator activity will come back to the market. All those events will culminate in a much higher price……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Chinapost.com.tw: China aims to greatly increase the proportion of recycled nonferrous metals used in its industries. To achieve this it plans to optimize the organization of the industry and accelerate the restructuring process, the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) said on its website.
The MIIT announced a plan on Thursday, in collaboration with the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology and the Chinese Ministry of Finance, to nearly double the capacity of recycled metals production by 2015……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Nasdaq.com: For three straight trading days, silver prices have closed above $30 and it’s got some analysts thinking that the metal and silver exchange traded funds (ETFs) could be gearing up to gain big again.
Silver is less than $1 away from its recent nominal highs of $31.2375, reports Tyler Durden for Silver Hedge . Mark Thomas for Commodity Online reports that silver is undervalued right now and the physical market is tight, creating a recipe for some possible moves……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Marketwatch.com: The U.S. market’s upward momentum has been impressive, but its divergence from slumping Chinese equities could be a sign that U.S. stocks are overextended.
After topping in November, iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund has been under pressure, with the exchange-traded fund making a series of lower highs……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Etftrends.com: Investors who bought “alternative” investments believed that these assets would have low correlations and great rewards, but some got burned by that thinking. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are a viable and less risky way to gain access to this area of the market.
Alternative asset classes usually depend on sophisticated financial instruments and some produced higher returns by being exposed to high leverage………………………………………Full Article: Source

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From Investmentnews.com: Executives at BlackRock Inc. and Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC are calling on regulators to address suitability requirements for the sale of sophisticated ETFs such as commodities-based and leveraged funds.
Although BlackRock would like to see increased suitability requirements for the sale of these kinds of exchange-traded funds, Invesco Power-Shares hopes that regulators create a separate class of investors who could invest in more-sophisticated products, executives at the firms said……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Fundstrategy.co.uk: Currency hedging is becoming common in retail asset management as a way of protecting sterling-based investors from excessive volatility. But with swings in the currency markets becoming more pronounced, disparities are emerging in the way funds use it.
Some managers treat unhedged currency investing as another way of making money, particularly in emerging markets. Others are launching share classes that hedge out the risk of overseas currencies for their investors……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 February 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Hedge funds increased their bullish bets on wheat to the highest in more than three years amid shrinking global supplies and mounting concern that food inflation will accelerate.
In the week ended Feb. 8 on the Chicago Board of Trade, the funds and money managers increased net-long positions, or wagers on rising prices, by 19 percent to 51,787 contracts, the highest since August 2007, government data showed on Feb. 11……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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