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Commodities Briefing 14.Jan 2010

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Ninemsn.com.au: Global commodity markets have continued to perform far better than most would have dared to hope, starting to rise in the second quarter of last year on the back of Chinese stockpiling and then continuing the advance into the new calendar year on an increasing expectation of economic recovery, a declining US dollar, supply concerns and growing interest in commodities as an asset class and a hedge.
Yet so far the steady recovery has been without any real increases in physical demand………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Financialpost.com: A weak U.S. dollar and a “tidal wave” of investment inflows should lead to a huge year for exchange-traded commodity prices, according to Scotia Capital analyst Lawrence Smith.
He wrote that 2010 may be the peak year for exchange-traded commodities, as the inflow of dollars into them are supported by improved economic data………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Smh.com.au: Investor appetite for commodities ”has never been stronger”, according to a report by Deutsche Bank, which predicts that global growth will keep prices high.

The investment bank believes Rio Tinto will drag the market higher in 2010 as long as its fourth-quarter production report today doesn’t produce any shocks………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Istockanalyst.com: Société Générale (SocGen), France’s second-biggest bank, has told its clients to be bullish on commodities, stay with stocks and “anything but cash” in 2010.
SocGen’s Chief Strategist Alain Bokobza sees an ongoing momentum for growth in the U.S. with employment growth, as well as the emerging economies.
The consensus seems to be we are heading towards a bond market crash in 2010; nevertheless, fear of a double-dip will prevent a bond market crash………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Thestar.com.my: The global economic recovery will boost demand for raw materials and this will keep commodity prices buoyant this year, according to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch head of global commodity research Francisco Blanch.

The biggest risk to the commodity rally would be a “double-dip” in economic growth………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From FT Alphaville: Deutsche Bank on Tuesday revealed it was issuing “three-year market contribution securities” linked to the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index – Mean Reversion Plus.

The SEC filing, brought to our attention by Thomson-Reuters columnist John Kemp, summed up the securities as follows:…………………………………Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Marketoracle.co.uk: Everyone would love to know what would be the outlook for the commodity markets and commodity trading. After a roaring 2007 and 2008 it seemed that commodity trading advisors would know no limit.
The stock markets collapsed in 2008 and fear was rampant through out the world. During the turmoil when virtually every strategy lost money the Newedge CTA Index was up 13.07%………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Financialsense.com: From 2008 to 2009 it was a real gut check for commodity bulls in terms of reevaluating the secular bull market thesis, but from my vantage point the fundamentals behind commodities have not changed.
What 2008 to early 2009 is likely to represent in hindsight is a bump along the road not unlike the mid 1970s correction in commodities before the 1980 bubble top or the 1987 market crash before the 2000 stock market peak………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Tehrantimes.com: Despite the grim oil market outlook that trailed the global economic recession, recovering oil prices is giving hope to the prediction that revenue receipts from export of crude oil will boost support for fiscal projections by the members of the Organization of petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Oil prices closed last week on a strong note as the commodity touched $83 per barrel for the first time in 15 months and opened this at $84 per barrel, confirming forecasts by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the United States of America that the exporters’ club could rake up about $750 billion this year………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: Rising imports helped push U.S. crude oil inventories to a larger-than-forecast build last week and distillate stocks saw a surprise rise, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday.

The report by the Department of Energy’s statistical arm — which also cited a much larger-than-expected build in the nation’s gasoline inventory — validated Tuesday’s bearish data from the American Petroleum Institute trade group………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Businessweek.com: Federal regulators are planning their first major step to rein in oil speculators. Whether it’s enough to control future spikes in energy prices remains to be seen.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Thursday will consider setting trade limits on the New York Mercantile Exchange to keep fund managers and other “speculative” investors from wielding too much influence in the market………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: High-yielding currencies rallied on Wednesday, reversing losses in the prior session, as investors concluded China’s unexpected monetary tightening would not derail the world’s third largest economy.

Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar recovered some losses but the market remained nervous that the withdrawal of liquidity may prompt unwinding of positions in riskier assets as economies recover and central banks focus on inflation risks………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Commodityonline.com: Two months after India’s Reserve Bank made big global news with the purchase of 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), bullion traders are now waiting for the ‘golden’ news of 2010. The news in question: Will China buy the remaining 203 tonnes of gold from IMF soon?

Bullion trader and gold investors in China want the dragon country to take the plunge and buy the rest of the IMF gold, following India’s footsteps. India bought 200 tonnes of IMF gold for $1,045 an ounce………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Bullionvault.com: The safe-haven offered by Gold Investment has been championed today as gold rebounded stateside following its biggest drop in three weeks.

The Gold Price increase has been put down to an increase in demand for a safe haven from both falling prices among alternative commodities and the weakened US dollar, according to Bloomberg………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Usnews.com: Gold. Glenn Beck has sworn by it. So has radio personality Dennis Miller. Even Fred Thompson, in a way that only a U.S. senator turned Law & Order district attorney could, has stepped up to bat for it. And if you’re an investor, chances are somebody you know has told you recently to buy it.
Despite what the potency of the modern “gold rush” might suggest, America’s favorite precious metal is hardly the only one out there. …………………………………Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.com: Measured over the past 12 months, rolling stock price returns from listed mining specialists have been dominated by broadly-defined copper stocks. There are two main reasons explaining this phenomenon, starting with the sharp decline in most commodity prices between mid-2007 and mid-2008.
Copper, for one, fell from around USD 4.10/lb to USD 1.25/lb during the second half of 2008, but recovered sharply, in line with most commodities, during 2009, and is now trading up around USD 3.35/lb………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: Base metal prices came under pressure on Tuesday and the mood in the complex was dampened by China’s latest measures to tighten monetary policy. This will curb lending and prevent overheating in some economic sectors.
China’s central bank said it was raising banks’ reserve requirements by 0.5 percentage points………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: Following their worst drop in three weeks on Tuesday, gold prices staged an overnight recovery as additional dollar weakness prompted some bargain hunting in the overseas markets.
The yellow metal was thus far only able to retrace about a third of yesterday’s significant losses with said lukewarm buying patterns, and remains some distance from the previous $1142 resistance area it previously overcame during its late Sunday/early Monday rally………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Etftrends.com: Investors who are interested in commodities may consider trading in straight commodity exchange traded funds (ETFs) or equity-based commodity ETFs. The current market conditions seems to be favoring the equity-based investments for the time being.

According to Paul Justice, a Morningstar analyst, commodity ETFs lagged behind spot markets and equity ETFs that held oil, gas and agricultural companies companies in 2009…………………………………Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From WSJ: Exchange-traded funds are now a trillion-dollar business, according to a report by BlackRock Inc., the largest ETF firm.

BlackRock, which bought the iShares ETF business from Barclays PLC last year, on Wednesday said assets in ETFs around the world reached a peak of $1.032 trillion at the end of 2009, up 45% during the year………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Istockanalyst.com: The commodity futures charts and gold precious metal stocks have be trading with increased volatility as they bounce between support and resistance levels on the daily and hourly charts.

This report is focused more on technical analysis and charts so that I can show you what I feel these commodities are lining up to do………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Insidefutures.com: In today’s investment arena, with an ever-increasing need for diversification, transparency, and liquidity, investors continue to look beyond traditional investments. Many investors, ranging from large institutional firms to individuals, are discovering that these needs can be satisfied without compromising performance by investing in managed futures.

What are managed futures?…………………………………Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: Speculation in commodity derivatives has been “scandalous” and needs to be regulated carefully, the European Union’s nominee for chief financial watchdog said on Wednesday.

“Why do we have this speculation we have had over the last two to three years in raw materials,” Michel Barnier, EU internal market commissioner-designate, said………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Business24-7.ae: Despite shedding early gains marginally, Dubai Gold and Dubai Silver futures on Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) are likely to witness upward movement in the short term.

Owing to favourable market conditions, the first session of the week showed strong opening for the precious metals, which retreated yesterday………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From WSJ: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is set Thursday to propose limits on positions energy traders can take, advancing a major piece of Chairman Gary Gensler’s agenda after delays and some skepticism from commissioners.

The proposal is a response to criticism the agency faced in 2008 when crude-oil prices soared to $145 a barrel. Many in Congress blamed speculators and accused the commission of sitting by and letting it happen………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 January 2010 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Environmentalleader.com: Are “carbon offsets” an effective means of cutting carbon for society and industry? Carbon offsets are a recent invention of the Kyoto Protocol. Kyoto has a unique distinction – it uses market forces. It trades the nations’ rights to use the planet’s atmosphere. These are the “carbon offsets” – or “carbon credits”. If you buy a “carbon offset” you buy the right to emit one ton of CO2.

Carbon trading has grown by leaps and bounds. Trading has doubled yearly since the market became international law in 2005………………………………….Full Article: Source

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