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Commodities Briefing 11.Nov 2009

Posted on 11 November 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: Returns from commodities are expected to remain strong up to another two years as prices of key raw materials such as oil, copper and corn rise further from supply deficits, Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday.

Wall Street’s most-watched investment banker and commodity markets mover said it was also bullish on gold after a streak of record highs above $1,000 an ounce in the precious metal…………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 11 November 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Gulf-times.com: The global oil demand growth will be 0.7mn bpd in 2010 and will gradually rise to 1.2mn bpd by 2013, Opec research director Hasan M Qabazard has said.
“Most of this demand growth will be in non-OECD countries with transport, industrial and petrochemical industries leading the way,” he said at the 4th LPG Trade Summit yesterday…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Reuters: The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday raised its forecast for OPEC crude oil production next year to 29.44 million barrels per day from its prior estimate of 29.19 million bpd.

“Through the forecast period, OPEC surplus production capacity should remain in excess of 4 million bpd, versus an average of 2.8 million bpd seen over the 1998-2008 period,” the EIA said in a monthly energy outlook…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Reuters: OPEC is still deciding whether to adjust crude output next month, and so far sees a “balanced” market, a senior Gulf source told Reuters on Tuesday in the Chinese city of Fuzhou, on condition of anonymity.

Asked about the chances of a change in output by the oil-producing bloc, he said: “It’s too early to say. We’ll be looking at numbers…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Hardassetsinvestor.com: Is oil entering a bubble? That was the question on everyone’s mind at last week’s “Inside Commodities” conference, where keynote speaker Nouriel Roubini argued in his speech that oil prices had risen too far, too fast, too soon.
But oil can still go much higher, says Stephen Schork, editor of The Schork Report, a daily briefing on the energy markets…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From UPI: High-value investors including the pension funds are pushing oil as an instrument of high-yield investment, a factor that is keeping oil prices high amid low interest rates and low energy demand, a London think tank said Tuesday.

The London Center for Global Energy Studies said the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates low had contributed to investors flocking to oil and other commodities as high-yield instruments of investment…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Dow Jones: Goldman Sachs (GS) Tuesday forecast oil supplies would tighten in the coming months as the global economy rebounds from a severe slowdown.

“We continue to expect generally positive OECD economic indicators will boost oil demand in the developed economies, reinforcing strong emerging market demand,” Goldman analysts said in a report…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Csmonitor.com: A weak US dollar has sent investors to oil, pushing up crude prices over the past few months. That means higher gasoline prices this Thanksgiving.
But the gyrations had little to do with fundamental supply and demand for petroleum, energy analysts say. Instead, they say, oil prices are moving in relation to the US dollar, which has been losing value all year. In this case, traders say, the weak dollar is boosting oil as a commodity that has some value…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Heraldscotland.com: Global oil consumption will surge by 24% over the next 20 years to more than 100m barrels a day stoking big increases in prices unless governments agree to measures that will lead to a big drop in energy consumption and carbon emissions at next month’s Copenhagen summit.

The prediction comes from the influential International Energy Agency, which fears that current trends in energy usage could result in massive environmental damage…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Guardian: Rich countries are being urged to sign up to a Make Poverty History-style pledge at the climate change summit at Copenhagen next month to bring electricity to the 1.5 billion people in the world without it.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is working with the United Nations and the World Bank on a project to electrify millions of homes and villages in Africa and south Asia…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Telegraph: The International Energy Agency has warned that energy bills are likely to double in Europe if global leaders fail to reach an agreement on halting demand for fossil fuels at the Copenhagen climate change summit next month.
The independent body said the huge price of tackling climate change will eventually be overtaken by the cost of remaining dependent on fossil fuels, which are becoming more difficult and expensive to extract…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Independent: The world’s energy systems will need an extra $10.5 trillion (£6.3trn) in investment between now and 2030 to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and avoid “irreparable damage to the planet”, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned yesterday.

In the run-up to next month’s climate summit in Copenhagen, the IEA’s annual global outlook outlined parallel forecasts – one based on the current trajectory of global energy consumption, the other a lower-carbon model requiring major international policy co-ordination…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Telegraph: Gold has reached an all-time high, breaking through the $1,100 an ounce barrier on a weaker US dollar and the continued appetite from investors for the precious metal’s safe-haven attributes.
Demand continues to be strong – even Harrods, the famous Knightsbridge store, is getting in on the act by selling gold bars and coins to its upmarket customers…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From WSJ: The world’s central banks are likely to be net buyers of gold in 2009 after spending two decades as net sellers, sparking a race among analysts to figure out which countries may further step-up buying.

For 18 years, central banks have been net sellers of gold, reducing their holdings by 10%. It is a trend long cited as keeping an overhang on gold prices…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Theaureport.com: Gold has just breached US$1,100 after a strong move following the purchase of 200 tonnes of gold bullion by the Reserve Bank of India from the International Monetary Fund. This overhang had been troubling “ye of little faith” observers of gold.

The same day the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 0.25% whereas many had factored in a 0.5% rise so the AUD temporarily dropped with the gold surge—and away went the gold stocks Down Under too…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Resourceinvestor.com: Gold recently completed a bullish inverted head and shoulders continuation pattern and quickly put in a gain of $100 or 10%.
While the rise has been impressive, the technical picture suggests gold has much higher to go before any meaningful correction will surface…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Dnaindia.com: Gold’s been going from peak to peak, to use a favoured phrase of mountaineers. Spot prices of the precious metal closed at an all-time high of $1,108.91 per ounce (one ounce = 31.1 gram) on Monday, signalling firm investor interest, though on Tuesday, prices came off an intra-day high of $1,111.20 to close lower, at $1,101.12.
Since the beginning of this year, the yellow metal has given a return of 26.6% in dollar terms…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Mineweb.com: According to research undertaken by the state organisation, the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), the country’s gold production could triple by 2015, putting the South American nation possibly into the world’s top seven global producers.

Chile’s current gold production is put at 39.2 tonnes, but new developments and expansions - most notably Barrick’s Pascua Lama project - could bring output to 103 tonnes by 2015. Indeed this could even be an underestimation with a number of other potential projects waiting in the wings…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Reuters: Gold prices hit record highs of $1,110.85 an ounce on Monday as the dollar index weakened to 15-month lows, with last week’s news that the IMF had sold 200 tonnes of gold to India also supporting the market.

Expectations for further dollar weakness and the prospect of inflation and further central bank buying are firmly underpinning the metal, dealers and analysts say…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Canada.com: When spot uranium prices soared to nearly US$140 a pound in 2007, critics blamed hedge funds and other financial speculators for pushing prices to absurd levels unmatched by any other commodity.

Whatever happened to those days?………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Theaureport.com: Everyone is talking about commodities as the place to be in the coming months. I tend to agree, but it is still important to know where each commodity is trading to maximize returns and reduce risk.

That being said we are also seeing money flow out of the small cap stocks and into the large cap blue chips Stocks…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Gurufocus.com: “If you can tell me something else where the fundamentals are so attractive…I’d be happy to put my money there,” said Jim Rogers, the famed investor and self-made billionaire in a recent interview. “But I don’t know of any other place.”

What’s he talking about? Today, we take a look and invest right alongside his idea. And it should start to pay off with the arrival of the first swallows of spring in 2010…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Bloomberg: There are tough new regulations on the horizon. There are scandals and arrests. Investors, shaken by the credit crunch, are nervous about taking risks.

Yes, there has never been a better time to polish your CV, shine your shoes and start a new hedge fund…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Etftrends.com: Earlier this year, oil exchange traded funds (ETFs) were lagging oil prices by a wide margin thanks to contango. Although the situation has improved, it brings to light a situation that futures-based commodity funds can experience.

In the last month, United States Oil Fund has been lagging oil prices slightly: it’s up 10.4% in the last month, compared to about 10.7% for oil prices…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Etfdb.com: The International Energy Agency (IEA), an energy advisor to rich nations such as the U.S., released its highly-anticipated World Energy Outlook on Tuesday, singling out potential climate change initiatives as a major driver of oil consumption and prices in coming decades.
If a major agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions is signed and implemented in coming years, global crude oil demand could increase by only four million barrels per day by 2030…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Benzinga.com: Despite the Stock market slowly recovering from the financial crisis, experts still believe that money can still be made in the commodities market.
For one, the decision of the G20 to keep the stimulus measures in place will help maintain interest for Gold and Silver to hedge against the dollar…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Istockanalyst.com: “The commodities bull market has further to run,” says Martin Hutchinson. In Money Morning, he looks to four ETFs to play gold, silver, and base metals as well as coal

“As long as the world’s central banks continue to interest rates at these very low levels, speculative interest in commodities will be strong. And since only minor central banks yet show signs of moving rates, the commodities bull market has further to run…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Forbes: Russia’s central bank on Tuesday warned the market against a one-way bet on the rouble’s strength, pledging new rate cuts and budget liquidity injections to prevent the oil-fuelled rouble rally damaging the recovery.
The comment came as the World Bank slightly raised its outlook for Russia’s economic growth for 2010 but warned authorities that inflationary pressure may return sooner than expected on the back of lower rates…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From WSJ: The dollar fell against the euro and other higher-yielding currencies after the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations pledged not to remove economic-stimulus programs until global recovery is certain.

Investors got the green light to bulk up on trades considered riskier after currencies weren’t mentioned in the official communiqué of finance ministers and central bankers at the weekend meeting of the G-20 nations in Scotland…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Zacks.com: The dollar has clearly been under pressure this year. Most of the graphs of it that you have seen probably look like the first graph below, which shows what the dollar has done against two indexes since the start of the year.
The blue line is how the greenback has fared against the major currencies like the Euro and the Yen, and the red line includes those, but also looks at how it has fared against a much broader collection of currencies…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From CNN: … stocks and oil are surging. Or is it the other way around? Figuring out the cause and effect could help determine what’s next for the economy.
Here’s the latest twist on the timeless chicken versus the egg debate. Which came first: the stock and commodities rally or the weaker dollar?………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 11 November 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

The highly anticipated pan-African commodity and derivatives exchange, Bourse Africa, is now expected to be fully operational in the first quarter of 2010 after some delays due to regulatory issues.

The CEO of the Botswana International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) Alan Boshwaen says the Non-Bank Financial Institutions Regulatory Authority (NBFIRA) needed to be operational before the exchange could start…………………………..Full Press Release: Source

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From Business-standard.com: The Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) of India, the country’s largest commodity exchange by turnover, aims to strengthen its presence in agricultural products and also to work extensively on illiquid contracts in its seventh year.
Started with a basket of three commodities — gold, silver and castorseed — on November 10, 2003, MCX completed six years of live trading operations in commodities on Tuesday…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Agrimoney.com: Global soybean production is set to jump by nearly 19% this year thanks to record production in all of the world’s big-three producing nations.

Washington has added more than 4m tonnes to its forecast for world soybean output in 2009-10, citing improved hopes for America, Brazil and third-ranked producer Argentina…………………………..Full Article: Source

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From Marketoracle.co.uk: Too many investors forget to ask this very important question when trading commodities. In many cases commodity traders leave money in segregated accounts at their Futures commission merchant.
As well there are cash management companies. In order to survive in these trying times …using the words of Andy Grove… ” The Paranoid Survive”……………………………Full Article: Source

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