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Commodities Briefing 09.Apr 2009

Advisors remain bullish on equities and commodities: survey
Commodity price recovery anticipated in 2010
Commodities and commitment of traders: Who, what, why and when
Speculators still dominate the gold and commodities markets
ETF Securities' 1Q 2009 results: Commodities outperform equities by 8% in 1Q 2009
Precious metal ETCs top performer in Q1
Assets surge in gold and oil ETCs
Energy ETCs almost triple in 1st qtr as oil rises
US energy sector up as crude inventories rise less than expected
Oil tanker companies may be in trouble if OPEC raises cuts
Nigeria May exports expected to exceed OPEC output target
Iran sees $60 oil by year end
Oil prices may touch 70 dollars: Algerian minister
Middle East hope for wave energy
China discovers huge coal reserve in northwest
Energy and climate change: Meltdown
Gold demand ebbs as prices recover
2009 Gold outlook
Investors to flock to gold in 2009
Chasing the world's top gold stock targets
Old gold to be king in 2009 too!
Revisions to precious metals price forecasts
Towards new global currency, new financial world order
We should listen to Beijing’s currency idea
Hedge funds welcome G20 communique
DMCC plans trading centre of rice, pulses
Chicago Climate Futures Exchange announces nw record for daily volume
Indian sugar futures hit new highs on low output
China to raise grain output to 550 mln tonnes by 2020
Expecting the unexpected: New Credit Suisse research piece examines how commodities may provide an effective hedge against unexpected inflation
OPEC resigned to $50 oil, unlikely to cut output

Posted on 09 April 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Investmentexecutive.com: Advisor confidence remains high in both commodities and energy stocks, according to the lasted survey from BetaPro Management Inc. Advisors who are bullish on energy stocks represent over 73% of the almost 400 advisors polled, managing more than $30 billion in assets and representing a significant cross-section of the industry.

The survey revealed increased optimism for crude oil, but slightly lowers expectations for natural gas. Confidence in energy and mining commodity prices is consistent with a 70% bullish sentiment in the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar. The expectation of a return to economic stability also resulted in a bearish outlook for the U.S. 30-Year Bond…..Full Article: Source

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From Energycurrent.com: Recent declines in the capital expenditures required to develop oil and natural gas will help drive commodity market prices up, predicts AJM Petroleum Consultants in their current oil and gas price forecast, established effective March 31, 2009.

“Some analysts believe world oil production peaked in 2008, but regardless of whether or not you agree, it is generally accepted that the world’s supply of hydrocarbons is declining,” said Ralph Glass, economist and Vice President of Operations at AJM Petroleum Consultants…..Full Article: Source

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From Seekingalpha.com: The Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of open interest for commodity markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC.

Reports are available in both a short and long format. The short report shows open interest separately by reportable and non-reportable positions. For reportable positions, additional data is provided for commercial and non-commercial holdings, spreading, changes from the previous report, and percentage of open interest by category, and number of traders…..Full Article: Source

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From Seekingalpha.com: There must be too many speculators and not enough serious investors in gold and silver. If you are serious about buying gold and silver as safe haven assets, then you should buy the physical metal, take delivery and hold for long term as an insurance for your financial security.

Monday’s gold/silver plummet proves that speculators still dominate the gold market; sentiments, rather than fundamentals, are still the driving force behind gold price. Even James Sinclair, the most outspoken gold bug, got so frustrated that he almost gave up attempts to persuade people to demand gold delivery from the COMEX…..Full Article: Source

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From Mondovisione.com: ETF Securities’ 1Q 2009 results show that commodities outperformed equities in the first quarter, extending the outperformance of the past ten years. Precious metals, as measured by the DJ-AIG Precious Metals Sub-IndexSM, was the best performing commodities group, up 7% during the quarter, followed by the DJ-AIG Industrial Metals Sub-IndexSM, up 5%.

Commodities as measured by DJ-AIG-F3 Commodities IndexSM, fell 4% during the quarter, compared to a 12% decline in Dow-Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index, a 10% fall in the FTSE 100 Index and a 11% fall in the MSCI World Index during the period. A surge in demand for commodities and for liquid, collateralised and physically backed exchange traded commodities (ETCs), caused ETF Securities’ assets under management to rise by 44% during the quarter to $10.1bn…..Full Article: Source

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From Investmentweek.co.uk: Precious metal exchange traded commodities (ETCs) were the top performers in Q1 2009, according to ETF Securities.

The ETC provider says this quarter’s results show commodities outperformed equities in Q1, extending the outperformance of the past ten years…..Full Article: Source

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From Fundstrategy.co.uk: Investors flocked to invest in gold and oil exchange-traded commodities (ETCs) during the first quarter, boosting ETF Securities’ assets under management by 44%.

The firm reported record inflows in long oil and gold ETCs as investors sought a hedge against inflation and to gain from a rising oil price…..Full Article: Source

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From Reuters: Exchange-traded commodities (ETCs) investments in energy almost tripled to a record $1.5 billion in the first quarter of this year as oil prices rose sharply, ETF Securities said on Wednesday.

Holdings in long oil ETCs rose by a record $916 million in the January-March period, up 160 percent from the end of last year, the company, which manages a range of ETCs in London, said in a statement…..Full Article: Source

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From WSJ: U.S. energy stocks Wednesday perked up from earlier losses on the latest inventory data, with natural gas shares moving furthest into the green as the broad market moved up.

Crude inventories rose 1.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3, according to the latest figures from the Energy Information Administration. Analysts at energy information provider Platts had expected an increase of 2.3 million barrels. ….Full Article: Source

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From Reuters: Any further output cuts by OPEC, coupled with an expected increase in vessels in 2009, may dampen the oil tanker companies’ ability to hold on to higher freight rates, denting their earnings potential in the coming quarters.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil supply fell in March, for the seventh consecutive month, but remained above its target as some members pumped more than agreed levels, a recent Reuters survey showed…..Full Article: Source

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From Guardian.co.uk: Nigeria is unlikely to cut its crude oil production much further, even though it is exceeding its OPEC target, because the country’s weakening economy is overwhelmingly reliant on oil revenues.
Nigeria is expected to export 1.81 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, according to trade sources, far above its implied production target of 1.67 million bpd set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries…..Full Article: Source

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From UPI: Oil prices on the world market should recover to around $60 per barrel this year as OPEC members honor production-level quotas, Iranian officials said.

Mohammad Ali Khatibi, the Iranian governor to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, told the official Islamic Republic News Agency he saw a bull market emerging in the energy sector as production controls impact prices…..Full Article: Source

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From AFP: Oil prices could rise to 70 dollars by the year end and then touch 80 dollars, Algeria’s energy minister told AFP, adding that oil producers should maintain their production quotas for the moment.

“The global economy is starting to pick up, especially in the United States. A barrel could hover around 70 dollars between the end of 2009 and early 2010 and then rise to 80 dollars,” Chakib Khelil said…..Full Article: Source

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From BBC: Devon inventor is hoping to make a commercial version of his wave energy machine in the Middle East. Alvin Smith, 62, from Dartmouth, said he has had some “serious interest” from a number of Gulf countries.

The Searaser machine works by using wave energy to pump water up to container tanks and the water is then released to a hydro-electric turbine…..Full Article: Source

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From Xinhua: China discovered a 3-billion-tonne coal reserve at Aiding Lake in its northwestern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
The Xinjiang Bureau of Coal Geology said Wednesday the coalfield, which includes the lake, has a perimeter of 16 by 10 kilometers. The coal bed is estimated to be 10-22 meters deep…..Full Article: Source

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From Economist.com: Everyone is green now, at least in theory. A warming planet has panicked the world into looking for alternatives to fossil fuels even as billions of people begin to achieve the sort of luxurious Western lifestyle that will, without reform, cook the Earth.
If the science of climate change is fast-moving, the politics are even faster, with a huge array of treaties, promises, pledges and targets giving the appearance of lots of action—but with little actually being achieved. Three books take very different approaches to sizing up the problem…..Full Article: Source

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From Livemint.com: India’s gold demand ebbed on Wednesday on rising prices, a reversal from the healthy offtake seen last week, traders said.
“There was demand last week but nothing as of now… as prices have jumped,” said Haresh Acharya, head of bullion desk, Parker Agrochem in Ahmedabad…..Full Article: Source

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From Livenews.com.au: Gold has been under pressure this week as sharemarkets have paused for breath, or slipped back after the big run up of the past four weeks. Gold has risen, fallen, risen and was trading under $US900 an ounce on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the Easter break.
For gold investors, these are temporary developments. Because of the credit crisis, the recession and the enormous rise in government spending and borrowings, they see the outlook for gold as being more ‘golden’ than it would appear…..Full Article: Source

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From Commodityonline.com: Don’t give up on gold. 2009 will see more investors putting their money on gold and the yellow metal will be the only safe place where the recession-hit world will be placing its hard-earned dollars.

Even after the G20 leaders’ decision to pump in $1.1 trillion into the global economy, investors’ confidence on equity market is still down and sustained concerns over the global economy and the health of the financial system will continue to fuel safe haven interest in the yellow metal…..Full Article: Source

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From Mineweb.com: Recent patterns in the pricing of listed gold stocks around the world shows a firm trend where investors tend to favour potential acquisition targets, typically companies with great discoveries but lacking either the balance sheet or full access to capital required to develop appropriate mines.
Depending on the potential target, valuations vary widely; 20 of the most likely targets show numbers where proven gold in the ground is valued from as little as USD 3.11/oz to USD 152.69/oz. ….Full Article: Source

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From Commodityonline.com: If you thought how did the world coped with the increased demand for gold during the peak times in 2008, the answer lies in scrap.

Yes, the world witnessed a huge jump in scarp gold sales in 2008 and the trend is expected to continue due to the rising prices of the yellow metal and distress selling by individuals…..Full Article: Source

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From Forexpros.com: Bullion prices have slipped in the last week as equity markets have recovered in the wake of the G20 leaders’ summit, with investors becoming more optimistic the global economic slowdown may be bottoming out.

Precious metals’ prices remain high, however, on worries measures taken by governments around the world to raise money supply may lead to rising inflation in the longer term…..Full Article: Source

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From Marketoracle.co.uk: Following the 2009 G20 summit, plans were announced for implementing the creation of a new global currency to replace the US dollar’s role as the world reserve currency.

Point 19 of the communiqué released by the G20 at the end of the Summit stated, “We have agreed to support a general SDR allocation which will inject $250bn (£170bn) into the world economy and increase global liquidity.” SDRs, or Special Drawing Rights, are “a synthetic paper currency issued by the International Monetary Fund.”….Full Article: Source

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From FT: Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China’s central bank, has suggested creating a “super-sovereign reserve currency” to replace the dollar over the long run. He would sharply enhance the global role of special drawing rights, the inter­national asset created by the Inter­national Monetary Fund in the late 1960s and just given an enormous boost by the decision of the Group of 20 to expand its issuance by $250bn (€189bn, £171bn).

These are the first big proposals for international monetary reform from China or indeed any emerging market economy and deserve to be taken seriously for that reason alone…..Full Article: Source

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From Investorsoffshore.com: The G20’s April 2 communiqué, which seeks to increase regulation of hedge funds and other high-yield investment vehicles, has been given a cautious welcome by the hedge fund industry.

In response to the G20’s communiqué, Managed Funds Association (MFA) President and Chief Executive Officer Richard Baker stated the following:….Full Article: Source

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From Business24-7.ae: The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) plans to introduce trading facility for rice and pulses and eyes re-exporting Asian agricultural commodities to Africa, a senior official said.

The centre has been studying introduction of such facilities and would introduce them when it finds the market waters receptive, according to Ashok Das, executive director (soft commodities and commodity trade finance) at DMCC…..Full Article: Source

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From Mondovisione.com: Chicago Climate Futures Exchange (CCFE), a whollyowned subsidiary of Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), yesterday announced that it established a new record for daily volume with 11,049 futures and options contracts traded.

Both Nitrogen Financial Instrument Annual (NFI-A) futures and Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) futures and options had record days with 6,980 NFIA futures contracts and 3,449 RGGI futures and options contracts traded…..Full Article: Source

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From Reuters: Indian sugar futures extended gains to hit new contract highs on Wednesday, bolstered by a downward revision in output estimates and a firm spot demand from bulk buyers.

India’s sugar output will fall to 14.2 million tonnes in 2008/09, down 8.4 percent from previous estimates, as lower cane availability forced mills to end crushing earlier than expected, a top trade official said late on Monday…..Full Article: Source

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From Xinhua: China has set the annual grain output capacity to more than 550 million tonnes as of 2020, an increase of 50 million tonnes over the coming 12 years to guarantee grain security.

The plan was approved by the country’s State Council, or the Cabinet, at a meeting on Wednesday, presided over by Premier Wen Jiabao…..Full Article: Source

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Opalesque Industry Updates - Governments globally continue to flood markets with capital while central banks cut interest rates to nominal levels in an effort to combat the financial crisis.

Though these emergency measures may be essential to prevent any further contraction of financial markets, they could have serious, unintended inflationary consequences down the road. A new research report, “Expecting the Unexpected: Using Commodities as an Inflation Hedge,” released today by the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy team, examines how investing in commodities could provide a diversified hedge against inflation, especially unexpected changes to inflation, while helping to improve a portfolio’s overall risk/return profile. Some key findings from the report include:….Full Article: Source

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From Reuters: OPEC’s lowered price ambitions mean the oil producers’ club is unlikely to meet promises to improve output discipline and the chances of a production cut when it meets next month are slim.

So far the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has delivered roughly 80 percent of its pledge to decrease output by a record 4.2 million barrels per day from September……Full Article: Source

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