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Commodities Briefing - Archive | March, 2012

Miner Newmont sees gold at $2,000/oz this year

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Newmont Mining’s Chief Executive Richard O’Brien said he believed a gold price at $2,000 per ounce was “reachable” this year.
“Based on this bull market and gold’s rise in recent years, $2,000 is still reachable,” O’Brien told the Reuters Global Mining and Metals summit in New York on Tuesday. Gold was trading around $1,686 per ounce on Tuesday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

AngloGold CEO: Gold could top $2,000/oz. this year

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd.Chief Executive Mark Cutifani said Tuesday the price of gold could exceed US$2,000 a troy ounce this year as demand remains robust in fast-growing economies like India and China.
Cutifani expected the gold price, which settled Monday at US$1685.60 an ounce, to average between US$1,700 and US$1,800/oz in 2012. “We could see it peak at well over US$2,000 in my view, but it is going to move around a fair bit, I think, as news flow from Europe, the U.S. and other countries continues,” he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

TD Securities lowers gold’s average price forecast to $1,766/oz in 2012, silver $35.05/oz

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The average price for gold in 2012 is forecast to be $1,766 an ounce and the average silver price is forecast at $35.05 an ounce, a reduction of 8.3% and 9%, respectively, from a previous outlook, said a leading Canadian bank on Tuesday.
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, also reduced his forecast for platinum’s 2012 average price by 1.1% to $1,755 an ounce and palladium by 3.9% to $740 an ounce. In base metals, he lowered the 2012 copper average price to $3.92 a pound, a 2% reduction from the previous forecast………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Asia’s golden future

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For most of the last century the default currency for international settlements has been the US dollar. This has given America ultimate power over international trade. In recent months, the US wielded this power against Iran, making life extremely difficult for all Iranians.
Importantly it has interrupted oil trade with India, China and Japan. Furthermore Swift, the Belgian-based international banking settlement agency, has halted all Iranian interbank transfers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold & China: Where bulls & bears square off

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In his latest Gold Monitor, Dundee Wealth Economics Chief Economist Martin Murenbeeld lists 10 positive factors for gold, one of which is monetary reflation. We are currently experiencing one of the greatest global liquidity booms the world has ever seen.
Over the past seven months, there have been 122 stimulative policy initiatives from central banks around the world, according to ISI Group………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rio, BHP lose faith in diamonds even as prices rise: Commodities

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Rio Tinto Group (RIO) and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) are looking to exit the diamond industry even as prices head for a fourth year of gains, because they see little prospect of repeating the dominance they hold in iron ore.
Rio is considering options for its diamond mines because they may no longer fit with strategy and they don’t have the required scale, the London-based company said yesterday. BHP Billiton Ltd. has sought bids for its diamond assets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Copper oversupply to push down prices to $6000/tone

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A looming oversupply in copper markets could push down prices to $6000/tonne over the next 4 years, states a report by Intierra Resource Intelligence. Benchmark LME Copper prices are currently trading around $8500/tonne and the last time it traded below $6000/tonne was in 2009.
“With the physical market for copper remaining quite tight through 2012 and 2013, prices are forecast to remain within sight of USD 8,000 per tonne………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Hedge funds dead wrong on commodities (Video)

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Bloomberg’s Alix Steel reports that hedge funds wagered the wrong way on commodity prices for a fourth consecutive week, boosting bullish holdings just before reports showing a contraction in manufacturing from China to Europe drove prices lower.
She speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “In The Loop.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Oil ETF vs. gas ETF: USO vs. UGA

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The ongoing evolution of the ETF industry has brought forth a host of previously difficult-to-reach asset classes right at the fingertips of mainstream investors. Commodities in particular have attracted serious interest lately as the exchange-traded product structure makes it easy and cost effective to access this corner of the market.
The energy segment of the commodities market presents investors with lucrative rewards, although the risks can be overwhelming for those unfamiliar with the underlying fundamentals and futures trading mechanics……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Water investing: Profiting from a commodity we can’t live without

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

You’ve no doubt heard about the building scarcity of water. It’s the reason savvy shareholders have been busy investing in water stocks. Here’s why.
Water may be everywhere but only 3% of it is fresh or suitable for drinking. Two-thirds of that is locked in glaciers and polar icecaps, which means less than 1% of the world’s fresh water is available for human use………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India: Commexes turnover jumps by 54pct till Mar 15 of this fiscal

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The turnover of 21 commodity exchanges rose 54 per cent to Rs 173.69 lakh crore till March 15 this fiscal on increased volumes in gold, silver and some agricultural commodities, according to the Forward Markets Commission (FMC).
The business at these exchanges stood at Rs 112.86 lakh crore in the same period last year. Much of the business came from gold, silver, aluminium, soy oil and soyabean, the regulator FMC said in a statement………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Ghana: Effective commodity exchange roll-out would ensure food security-Minister

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Ms Hanna Tetteh, Minister of Trade and Industry on Monday expressed optimism that effective implementation of a Ghana Commodities Exchange (GCX) concept would increase agricultural productivity and ensure food security.
She said the move would encourage multinationals like the Nestle Ghana Limited and Guinness Ghana Breweries Limited to source their raw products from local farmers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Tanzania: Commodity exchange set-up process starts

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) has started the process of establishing a commodity exchange in the country. The bank has called for bidders for consultants to provide legal and regulatory framework and design a robust trading system.
BoT said bidders have been given the task of “reviewing existing legal and regulatory framework for warehouse receipt system, cooperative and crop bodies and commodity trading.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodity derivatives rules may be toughened by EU lawmakers

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

European Union lawmakers may seek to toughen planned curbs on speculation with commodity derivatives as part of an overhaul of financial-market rules.
Markus Ferber, the lawmaker leading work on the measures in the European Parliament, is proposing to force venues to limit the number of commodity-derivative contracts that traders can enter into, according to a report sent by his office………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why you should beware of commodity speculators

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity speculators often get a bad rap for manipulating the price of commodities that they trade in. Because the business of speculation isn’t well understood, it’s assumed that the speculators are causing the wild price fluctuations in the marketplace. It’s true.
Speculators do buy and sell commodities for profit. Do they drive up the price of the underlying commodity? Sort of………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global soybean production to fall by 22.7 mln tons in 2011-12

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global soybean prices are likely to rise higher as the world soybean production is expected to fall 22.7 million tons to 242.9 million tons, a decrease of 8.5%, according to Oil World.
Presently, the price of the commodity is high on persisting bad weather conditions in South American nations especially Brazil and Argentina………………………………………..Full Article: Source

BRICS may agree to trade in local currencies

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The second BRICS summit that gets underway here on March 29 could set the ball rolling on a pact for extending cross-country credit in local currencies of member nations.
This comes at a time when development banks of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are said to be in advanced stage of reaching a path-breaking currency agreement………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Airlines call on US to fight EU over carbon-trading market

Posted on 28 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The trade group representing the largest U.S. airlines has called on the Obama administration to launch legal action against the European Union in a bid to end the bloc’s controversial carbon-trading market.
The Airlines for America lobby group dropped its own lawsuit against the EU and called on the Obama administration to bring a case through the International Civil Aviation Organisation, or ICAO, a branch of the United Nations………………………………………..Full Article: Source

High frequency trading having greater impact on commodities: study

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The growing trend of increased correlation between the price of oil and commodities markets and other assets classes, including currencies, equities and bonds, is well documented.
But two economists have found evidence of a rise in cases of heightened correlation over very brief periods – even as short as one second – pointing to the increased impact of algorithmic trading strategies on commodities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

High-frequency trades seen boosting commodity-stocks link

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

An increase in high-frequency trading in commodities is boosting the short-term correlation between prices for raw materials, including oil and food, with stocks and other assets, a study found.
From the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008, commodities have developed a correlation with U.S. stock markets at periods from one second to five minutes with the advance of high-frequency trading, which uses algorithms to analyse markets and execute orders, according to a study by Geneva-based economic affairs officers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

EU lawmaker turns screw on ultra-fast trading

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Banks should be banned from giving outside brokers direct access to markets as part of a sweeping crackdown on computerised high-frequency trading, a European Parliament report said on Monday.
The report was the assembly’s initial response to a draft law aimed at reining in computerised or algorithmic trading and other advances in technology which have made it harder for supervisors to see the full picture and control markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Six things to consider when trading soft commodities

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity categories: Though most spread betters of commodities tend to focus on the energy sector and on hard commodities such as gold and silver, you can also take a position on softs. Typically listed are: cocoa, coffee, corn, lean hogs, live cattle, oats, soy, wheat and sugar. Commodities are then often split into various grades, for example arabica and robusta coffee.
Subsidizing your profits: Political factors can greatly influence soft commodity prices. Grain subsidies in US states – as a way to sweeten a huge voting bloc ahead of an election in an agricultural state – can drive one price down at the expense of a less politically favoured commodity, as the policy creates an excess of supply and deflates the price………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Three best commodity funds

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The rapid economic development of China and the Asia Pacific region has been a recurrent theme of the Citywire Selection Isa series so far. This week we look at another way of tapping into the growth of emerging markets, through funds investing in commodities and natural resources.
Commodities cover a huge range of materials that emerging economies need to build their infrastructure and feed their growing populations. From iron and steel to oil and coal and on to basic foods such as rice and wheat: all fall within this category of essential goods………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Demand, supply no longer dominant factors — OPEC chief

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Supply and demand are no longer most influential factors that affect prices of oil and other causes have proven much more effective in setting prices of the crude, opined Secretary General of the Organization of Arab Exporting Petroleum Abbas Al-Naqqi.
The other factors that turned much more influential include geopolitical considerations, speculations, status of global crude reserves, rate of the US dollar, conditions at global financial markets, major shares, weather forecast and production and exports, said Al-Naqqi in a statement on Monday……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Why Saudi and US attempts to influence oil prices are ineffective

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

If you have the power and the desire to bring down oil prices, the best way to proceed is to start bringing them down. The easiest and fastest method would be to make more supplies available to the world market and keep adding until you reach your target price. The less you say about what you are doing, the better.
When market participants are filled with uncertainty about your intentions, they have only the direction of prices to guide them. That means the speculative players can help you achieve your goals more quickly as they panic out of their positions………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEA: Data show high oil prices hurting EU consumer spending

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Early data show that high oil prices in Europe have already started to eat into consumer spending in other areas and could push the region back into recession, said the chief economist of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, Monday.
The European Union will spend an estimated $502 billion on energy imports in 2012, compared with $472 billion in 2011, said Birol in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires. A further $100 billion will go in 2012 on imports of natural gas, the price of which is indexed to oil, Birol said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Agnico-Eagle sees $2,000 per ounce gold possible this year

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd expects gold can reach $2,000 an ounce this year, propped up by investment demand for the precious metal amid a still weak global economy.
“Can it get to $2,000? Absolutely. Can it do that within the next year? Absolutely,” said Sean Boyd, chief executive officer at the Canadian gold miner, in an interview at the Reuters Mining Summit on Monday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold may see buying at $1580-$1600: Barclays

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Physical demand remains muted in gold which has failed to provide a solid floor. However, the congested support zone in the $1580/$1600 area may provide buying interest and support prices in the near term.
The six-month rolling correlation between gold prices and the dollar has started to strengthen and the dollar will possibly continue to gain when the Euro has room to weaken………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold investors ditch equity funds, favor bullion

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investors keen on gold showed frustration at underperforming funds that invest in mining firms as liquidations extended for more than four straight months, while money flowed into funds that invest in the underlying metal, data from Lipper showed.
Gold mining stocks have underperformed the metal over the last several years as companies struggled with rising costs and operational problems in far-flung locations, but the figures show an accelerating trend………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India gold bullion imports “to fall by one third this year”

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Imports of Gold Bullion to India are set to fall by nearly a third in 2012, according to a poll of industry insiders conducted by newswire Reuters.
The poll of 10 respondents, including jewelers, brokers and importers, found the median estimate to be 655 tonnes of gold – a 32% drop from 2011’s volume. According to World Gold Council data, India imported 969 tonnes of Gold Bullion last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India cuts import tariff value of gold by 7.50pct

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Indian government has slashed the import tariff value of gold from $573 per 10 grams to $530. Though the decision was not taken due to the pressure from the Indian bullion industry, which has been protesting the duty hike, marketmen said it would provide a breather to the troubled industry.
In the case of silver imports though, the tariff value remains unchanged at $1,036 per kilo………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Indian jewelers strike hits physical gold demand: Commerzbank

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Physical demand in India is falling as jewelers there strike to protest a proposed hike in import duties, said Commerzbank in a daily research note.
According to the bank, data from the Bombay Bullion Association which forecasts that Indian gold imports in March may only reach 25-30 tons in light of the increased import duties………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bullion: More attractive than ever

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After registering an all-time high near $1,924 an ounce Sept. 6, 2011, the gold price tumbled all the way back down to $1,523 on Dec. 29, 2011. Since then, gold has made some feeble attempts to rally – at one point briefly approaching $1,800 an ounce – but it has not been able to hold onto any meaningful gains.
Despite this recent weakness - and even if the metal tumbles further in the days and weeks ahead – I believe the long-term outlook for gold remains extremely positive………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why copper is a good buy now

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In the past few years, the commodities market has come into the limelight due to the lack of financial opportunities in other markets. So, apart from gold and silver, various commodities are now being zeroed in by investors as a portfolio diversification tool to manage and contain risk. One of the more attractive options is copper, which is a very versatile metal.
Since copper is a good conductor of electricity, it is an essential component for energy-efficient generators, transformers, motors and renewable energy production systems………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity ETF dangers

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Recent action in the commodity markets begs the question of how to play the game and stay in it. Until about a decade ago, the only way to get direct exposure to this market was via futures contracts. Now, while ETFs provide access, expect at least some degree of “drift” between the way the ETF and its underlying commodity contracts move.
ETFs designed to track futures contracts have a huge fundamental disadvantage compared to ETFs based on a basket of equities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Should investors consider commodity country ETFs?

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As commodity prices start to rebound thanks to an improved economic outlook, a number of countries around the globe are seeing their fortunes rise along with these key products. Increased economic activity is reigniting demand for everything from copper to oil while higher living standards in much of the developing world are having a similar impact on many agricultural commodities.
Overall, many are starting to believe that the slump in commodity prices that investors saw for much of last year is finally subsiding once again………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What to beware of when trading commodity ETFs

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Recent action in the commodity markets begs the question of how to play the game and stay in it. Until about a decade ago, the only way to get direct exposure to this market was via futures contracts. Now, while ETFs provide access, expect at least some degree of “drift” between the way the ETF and its underlying commodity contracts move.
ETFs designed to track futures contracts have a huge fundamental disadvantage compared to ETFs based on a basket of equities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil ETFs…with a twist

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

While most portfolios are dominated by exposure to traditional asset classes such as domestic and international stocks and bonds, the past few years have seen investors gradually expand the universe of investable assets to include commodities and other types of “alternatives.”
In part as a result of the surge in the number and availability of exchange-traded products, investors have embraced ETPs as tools for tapping into corners of the market that were previously beyond their reach………………………………………..Full Article: Source

EU commodity market regulation battle commences

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The battle over EU commodity market regulation commences this week, with key bureaucrats meeting in Brussels tomorrow to thrash out an agreement on regulation of commodity derivative markets.
The European Parliament’s rapporteur for the review of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), German MEP Markus Ferber, said on Friday that he intends to introduce strong controls on financial speculation in these markets - Commodities Now………………………………………..Full Article: Source

10 reasons the reign of the dollar is about to end

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The U.S. dollar has probably been the closest thing to a true global currency that the world has ever seen. For decades, the use of the U.S. dollar has been absolutely dominant in international trade.
This has had tremendous benefits for the U.S. financial system and for U.S. consumers, and it has given the U.S. government tremendous power and influence around the globe………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Africa: Countering European Union’s carbon tax

Posted on 27 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As the global aviation industry joins forces to fight the European Union’s inclusion of international civil aviation in its Emissions Trading Scheme, it appears that the African continent has yet to come out with a strong stand on the issue which experts say might further retard the growth of African airlines.
Though the EU ETS was developed to contain green house emissions from the aviation which contributes about two per cent CO2 to green house emissions, its inclusion in the EU ETS scheme has been estimated to cost the global industry about $11.8 billion by the end of 2020, while the International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates will cost the industry about $1.2 billion this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity wrap: Slowdown fears hit markets

Posted on 26 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A slowdown in manufacturing growth numbers in Europe and China led to across the board weakness in commodities. The sentiment improved a bit ahead of the release of US housing data.
A gauge of European manufacturing shrank on back of an unexpected drop in factory output in Germany and France in March. A preliminary measure of Chinese manufacturing slipped to its lowest level in four months. These signs of slowdown turned the trading sentiment to bearish in most commodities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

A commodities guide for the perplexed

Posted on 26 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Nouriel RoubiniLast week Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the world financial crisis, said he considers high oil prices the number-one threat to the global economic recovery. The price of crude has jumped 36% in the last five months to $106 a barrel, stoking inflation.
But it’s not just oil: Growth and industrialization in emerging economies have greately spurred demand for commodities and raw materials, driving prices up. These increases have now slowed, partly due to the Western world’s economic crisis………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China soft landing may be hard for commodities

Posted on 26 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The good news: China’s government will engineer a soft landing. The bad news: Even a soft landing is painful for industries that have become dependent on the world’s fastest-growing major economy as their main profit engine.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank AG, Nomura Holdings Inc. and Daiwa Capital Markets raised forecasts this month for 2012 expansion to as high as 8.6 percent, partly on anticipation of looser monetary policy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil: Demand, prices and the global economy

Posted on 26 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Given the recent ramp up in oil prices, Barclays Capital have explored the impact on oil demand – and in turn economic growth. They have constructed a set of scenarios (at prices of $100, $125 and $150 per barrel) around their base-case oil price forecast for this year ($115 per barrel), and quantified the implications for oil demand – Commodities Now.
Under the base case (factoring in tightening fundamentals and limited spare capacity, with very little geopolitical tension) US oil demand falls by 1.3% and European oil demand by 2.1%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil scene: IEA grapples with crude realities

Posted on 26 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude consumers and producers are rarely on the same page — hand in hand — together. They occupy the opposite sides of the table and the difference is understandable. Their interests, mostly, diverge.
Yet for a change now, the International Energy Agency, the consumers’ watchdog, and major crude producers seem converging on the moot point — there is enough capacity to meet the emergency — in the event Iran sanctions start to bite………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices in a ‘peak oil’ environment

Posted on 26 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Peak Oil can be defined at least 4 ways but one way is simple: Peak Oil is when supplies and stocks are enduringly tight relative to demand, and price slides are short but price hikes are long - until and unless the economy tilts into steep recession.
The most recent example of this was in 2005-2008 culminating in US Nymex oil prices at around $145 a barrel in July 2008, with little difference between Brent and WTI grades………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold may jump to $2050/oz in Q3, 2012: Soc Gen

Posted on 26 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices may break through the $2000/oz in the third quarter of this year, a latest report from Societe Generale stated. Benchmark COMEX gold is currently trading around $1650/oz level.
The bank forecasts that gold prices will jump to $2050/oz in Q3 2012, thanks in large to a weaker US Dollar and higher oil prices. On silver prices, the bank advises investors to be “wary”………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold prices stay softer, silver may lose shine

Posted on 26 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global commodity markets have come under increased pressure for a variety of reasons including weak manufacturing data flowing from China and Euro zone, geopolitical tensions once again coming to the fore and currency market gyrations.
The choppy movements in the market culminated in broad-based weakness in commodity prices last week. China is the focus of attention with January and February trade data coming under close scrutiny for new signals………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold prices falling in near term: HSBC

Posted on 26 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices may be susceptible to further losses in the near term, even if weaker-than-expected economic data results in maintenance or more monetary policy easing, said HSBC in a briefing.
According to HSBC, Investor sentiment is currently not positive and listing several reasons. U.S. Treasury yields are rising and are lifting the U.S. dollar, further stock market losses could weigh on gold, physical Asian demand has been dulled in China and from the jeweler protests in India………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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