The Chinese speculators shaking up global commodity markets are switched-on, flush with cash and probably not getting enough sleep. For the second time this year, trading has exploded on the nation’s exchanges, pushing prices of everything from zinc to coal to multi-year highs and sending authorities scrambling to deflate the bubble before it bursts.
Metals brokers described panic earlier this month as the frenzy spread to markets in London and New York, prompting wild swings in prices that show no signs of abating. While billions of yuan have poured in from herd-like Chinese retail investors who show little regard for market fundamentals, brokers and traders say even more is coming from an expanding army of deep-pocketed hedge funds………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Industrial metals slumped, paring the biggest monthly rally in four years, on signs that China is taking steps to cool a trading frenzy in commodities. The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange have raised margins and fees to ease a trading frenzy that’s fueled aggressive price gains this month, and further measures are expected, according to Citigroup Inc. analysts.
“Chinese investors trigger copper prices back to life, but not back to reality,” Citigroup analysts including David Wilson wrote in an e-mailed note. Prices may fall as China takes steps to “skim speculative froth on industrial commodity markets,” they said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities analysts at Goldman Sachs raised their outlook for base metals prices on Monday with currencies as a tailwind, but lowered their gold projection and offered a mixed outlook for Australia-based metals producers as the commodities cycle peaks.
The upward revisions included prices for iron ore, hard coking coal, oil & base metals (Aluminum, Cu, Zinc, Pb & Nickel) on 3- 6- and 12-month basis. The Goldman analysts Craig Sainsbury, Meredith Schwarz and Ken Lek see strength in the Australian dollar and U.S. dollar………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Two years ago, Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC nations declared an oil war with America. On November 30h OPEC will meet to admit they have lost that conflict.
At this month’s meeting OPEC will try to decide about the possibility of a global production cut or even a freeze in crude oil production in order to raise prices. The speculation about this conference is the fact that the production increase war failed and OPEC is on the verge of extinction………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Trump heading closer to presidency has seen a rally in metal and oil prices, further strengthened by the strong US dollar. However, this has generated scepticism about the markets and whether China’s rally will begin to fade out.
Robin Bhar, base metals strategist at Societe Generale said, “When you have copper going up by $US1000 in barely a week you know there is something wrong. Fundamentals don’t change that fast,” according to the SMH. Copper prices shot up by 25 per cent to $US5445 a tonne within one month, with nickel, zinc, and lead also experiencing rises………………………………….Full Article: Source

Investors should watch miners’ 2016 results carefully to see whether firms take the bait of higher prices and let capital expenditures drift up again. Mining executives are a sober lot these days. “Capital discipline” has replaced “commodity supercycle” as the industry catchphrase.
Things are looking somewhat brighter recently, however. Chinese metals demand has staged a limited, but real, rebound, and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is touting an infrastructure-investment plan…………………………………Full Article: Source

Despite the fall, Finland remains an important trade partner for Russia, the deputy prime minister stressed. “Between January and September 2016, the volume of trade between Russia and Finland came to around $6.2 billion, falling 20 percent compared to the same period last year.
The main reason for this is the fall in oil prices,” Kozak said during a meeting of the Russian-Finnish Intergovernmental Commission for Economic Cooperation. The Finnish delegation at the meeting was headed by Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Kai Mykkanen, while Kozak headed the Russian side…………………………………Full Article: Source

Price fluctuations reveal that the mainland market is still too much of a speculative gamble for Hong Kong and overseas investors, analysts say. With the launch of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect approaching, some observers now expect the next step in Hong Kong’s financial links to the mainland could come through commodities trading.
Earlier this month, Charles Li Xiaojia, the chief executive of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, said the bourse was likely to explore similar schemes for metals, bonds and initial share sales……………………………………Full Article: Source

President-elect Donald Trump said a lot of crazy things during the divisive election campaign, but few were crazier than his suggestion of launching a trade war with China. The Donald accused China of manipulating the yuan to make its exports more expensive and give it a favourable trading advantage.
He threatened to fight back by slapping a 45% tariff on Chinese imports to the U.S. and officially named the country a currency manipulator. He has also talked of a 35% import tariff on Mexico as well as smashing global trade agreements and even pulling out of the World Trade Organisation……………………………………Full Article: Source

According to one Swiss national newspaper, the European physical gold market shrank Wednesday as Swiss bank UBS closed its gold-swapping operations at three of its banks — in Zurich, Basel and Geneva. In a statement to the Tagesanzeiger, UBS said that its decision to close its “gold switches” at the three branches was a “business policy decision” to reduce the bank’s costs.
Because of the policy change overnight, customers will not be able to immediately swap their precious metal for cash. The bank also said that it will streamline its bullion coin and bars available for purchase, offering “most common bars and coins.”…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia is cautioning President-elect Donald Trump against carrying out a threat to cut off American purchases of the kingdom’s oil.
Trump made the threat earlier this year, saying that if elected he might halt imports of oil from Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries if they don’t commit ground troops to fight ISIS, or at least reimburse the U.S. for efforts to battle the terror group. “Without us, Saudi Arabia wouldn’t exist for very long,” Trump told The New York Times in March………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Some Indian gold traders are placing bulk, short-term import orders on fears that Prime Minister Narendra Modi might soon add curbs on overseas purchases of the metal to his withdrawal of high-denomination banknotes in his fight against ‘black money’, traders and jewellers said.
India is the world’s second biggest gold buyer, and it is estimated that one-third of its annual demand of up to 1,000 tonnes is paid for in black money - untaxed funds held in secret by citizens in cash that don’t appear in any official accounts………………………………………..Full Article: Source

There are several factors that has gold prices stuck in what Marin Katusa describes as a “twilight zone.” Founder of Katusa Research and one of the organizers behind the Silver & Gold Summit, Katusa told Kitco News that gold prices could move either way, even below $1,100 an ounce. The yellow metal has been under pressure since the U.S. election, hovering near the key support level of $1,200.……………………………………….Full Article: Source

OPEC embarked on a final diplomatic effort to secure an oil-cuts deal, with its top official heading on a tour of member states as Russia scheduled informal talks in Doha this week with nations including Saudi Arabia.
The behind-the-scenes diplomacy follows an unannounced meeting in London between OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo and Saudi Minister of Energy and Industry Khalid Al-Falih, said one OPEC delegate. Just two weeks before the group’s Nov. 30 ministerial meeting in Vienna, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran are still at odds over how to share output cuts, said another delegate………………………………….Full Article: Source

Trade body Indian Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA) has created a flutter among some of its 2500 members by informing them through a text message that the government might ban imports of gold into the country until the end of the current fiscal year (FY17) and advance the last date of deposit of old notes for jewellers to November 15 to crackdown on black money.
“We hear from certain circles of this possibility (gold import ban and advancement of deposit date) though nothing official is out yet,” said Surendra Mehta, national secretary, IBJA. “The association is supportive of the government’s fight against black money and has informed its members of the possibility of such action. We have asked our members to support the government wholeheartedly.”…………………………………Full Article: Source

Spot rates of oceangoing container ships appear to have bottomed out. In addition to growing demand for ships bound for the U.S., the collapse of leading South Korean marine shipper Hanjin Shipping accelerated attempts by other companies to shore up earnings with higher freight rates.
With the introduction of large container ships aimed at reducing operating costs, the shipping capacity supply and demand balance is not too tight, but the prevailing view is that the rock-bottom prices seen this past spring are unlikely to reoccur………………………………….Full Article: Source

Forget the BRICs and the MINTs; it appears that there is a new acronym in town. In October, market research firm, Absolute Strategy Research (ASR), launched CARBNS, a new commodities-dominated grouping, consisting of Canada, Colombia, Australia, Russia, Brazil, Norway, and South Africa.
This mix of developed and developing economies is ASR’s attempt to address the shortcomings of the traditional emerging market groupings that have dominated investment portfolios and benchmark indices for the past fifteen years. These groupings – which are often erroneously assumed to have a strong positive correlation with commodities – have attracted criticism because they have implied some kind of equivalence between very disparate countries…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Chinese coal imports by volume in October were up 55% on the year. China posted another month of lackluster trade figures in October, but one positive trend remains intact: Chinese power plants and factories have an ample appetite for coal, iron and oil.
Commodity investors bruised and battered by two years of gut-wrenching price declines have been cheered in recent months by record imports from China, which have helped push oil and iron ore prices off their nadir and helicoptered Aussie coal prices back to levels not seen since early 2014…………………………………….Full Article: Source

China’s imports of commodities slowed to the lowest in months in October, as a week-long holiday closed factories, a weakening currency made foreign raw material more expensive and higher prices for products like crude oil hurt demand, analysts said.
Imports of copper by the world’s top producer and consumer fell to their lowest since February 2015, extending a six-month decline as domestic prices remained at a discount to the international market amid plentiful supplies…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold buying globally fell 10 percent in the third quarter as consumer demand in China and India sagged and central banks halved their purchases, despite a rise in investment sentiment, the World Gold Council said.
Chinese consumers bought 22 percent less gold in the July-September period due to “cooling economic growth, stock market uncertainty and concerns over a property bubble,” said Roland Wang, managing director of WGC China…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Suddenly the path to budget repair has gotten murkier. Global ratings agencies like Standard & Poor’s raised concerns about the make-up of the Senate following the July 2 federal election and what it would mean for legislation.
Little did they expect the larger crossbench would have started dropping like flies, leaving a big question mark over future government legislation should Labor and the Greens join forces to oppose government bills. Bob Day finally officially stepped down as a Family First senator this week, but it could be weeks before his Senate vacancy is filled as the High Court scrutinises parliamentary financial arrangements surrounding the South Australian………………………………………Full Article: Source

Growing price transparency and algorithmic-led trading is transforming trading. When Michael Farmer, founding partner of metals hedge fund Red Kite, this week blasted high-frequency traders who use powerful computers to execute orders at ultrafast speeds, he spoke for many in the commodities world.
“High-frequency trading appears to have no other purpose than to make money from the trading of other participants by jumping ahead of them,” said Farmer………………………………………Full Article: Source

Glencore Plc, the world’s biggest commodity trader, improved its earnings forecast for its trading division after coal and zinc prices rallied to the highest in at least four years.
Earnings before interest and tax will be $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion for this year, Baar, Switzerland-based Glencore said in a third-quarter production statement Thursday. That’s a slight improvement on its previous estimate of $2.4 billion to $2.7 billion. The company didn’t give a reason for the revised forecast………………………………………Full Article: Source

Oil is trading at a three-week low on concerns that OPEC is unable to make the kind of progress it needs to come to a consensus and to a tangible agreement from Vienna in late November.
Bloomberg analysis shows that even if OPEC cuts, it still might not be enough to drain the surplus. Bloomberg’s Wael Mahdi reports on “Bloomberg Markets: Middle East.”…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold enthusiasts go to the extent of advising that one should make investment in gold on the eve of Dhanteras every year a la Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) of mutual funds. SIP over a long period of time evens out the gyrations in the stock market given the reality of averaging and booms and bottoms so that the investor doesn’t have to do the near impossible task of timing the market.
In this light the parallel drawn between SIP in stocks and annual Dhanteras eve investments in gold does sound pragmatic—you keep up with your religious beliefs while at the same time investing for the rainy day. Indeed gold can be one’s rain check given its scarcity value……………………………………Full Article: Source

As commodity margins flat-line, the number of traders will shrink as existing trading firms consolidate and digital rivals emerge, U.S. consultancy Oliver Wyman said in its annual commodity trading report.
With the exception of oil and natural gas boosted by volatility last year, growth across commodities is plateauing with combined margins stuck at around US$44 billion per year in 2014 and 2015, the report said. Wyman sees digitization as the game-changer in the next few years that will force independent traders such as Glencore, Trafigura and Vitol, as well as the trading arms at integrated oil companies like Shell and BP, to become ever more nimble and automate many of their activities………………………………….Full Article: Source

World trade growth has ground to a halt as the commodity price slump hits economic growth in emerging markets and with it their demand for imported industrial equipment, supplies and consumer goods.
World trade volumes were unchanged between June and August compared with the same period in 2015, according to the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). Growth in volumes has been unusually weak since 2012 but the recent slowdown has pushed growth down to zero…………………………………Full Article: Source

A Reuters survey reported that India’s crude oil imports rose 17.7% to 4.5 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in September 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. September imports were at their highest level since April 2009. A rise in domestic demand led to the rise in crude oil imports.
India’s oil ministry expects India’s crude oil demand to rise 11% in 2016 compared to 2015. This would be driven by better economic growth and favorable monsoon rains. Market research company Energy Aspects estimates that crude oil consumption in India will rise by 400,000 barrels per day in 2016 and 2017………………………………….Full Article: Source

Metals are regaining their luster, a sign the global economy is becoming more resilient, helping to boost stocks and currencies of commodity-producing nations. Iron ore surged by the daily limit of 6 percent on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and rising steel prices in China spurred a rally from aluminum to zinc.
Currencies of resource-exporting nations, South Africa and Australia, led gains versus the dollar. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for its strongest close in three weeks as earnings reports fueled optimism about the profitability of the region’s companies. Spanish and Italian bonds outperformed top-rated German bunds as the region’s improving political and economic outlook sapped demand for haven assets………………………………….Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia faces the prospect of much deeper — and financially painful — oil production cuts after Iraq joined the queue of group members seeking immunity from the deal hatched in Algiers. In addition to Iraq, the second-biggest exporter in the group, Iran has already sought to exclude itself.
Output is also recovering from fields in Nigeria and Libya, two more countries that were exempted from the Algiers deal because violence has wrought havoc in their oil industries. Taken together, more than a third of OPEC’s production now stands outside the plan…………………………………..Full Article: Source

The world economy needs international trade to pick up, according to Reuters polls of hundreds of economists who see no end yet to the aggressive monetary stimulus through which central banks have tried to prop up inflation.
In recent months central banks from India to Britain to Brazil have become more accommodative with policy, leaving the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to raise rates in December, looking like an outlier. Financial markets are already showing a sense of unease, with sovereign bond yields up from record lows, many stock markets looking shaky, and investors warily eying the price of oil, which appears to have awoken from a long slumber…………………………………Full Article: Source

The global oil industry needs an astronomic investment injection over the next two decades or risk jeopardizing it’s ability to meet future oil demand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries warned on Tuesday.
Speaking at the “Oil & Money” conference in London, the cartel’s Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said the recent oil crash has already taken a serious toll on investments, particularly the exploration-and-production sector, and poses a “serious threat” to both producers and consumers…………………………………Full Article: Source

The gold market will be subject to some nervousness in the fourth quarter of this year due to growing investor fears about the Federal Reserve raising rates in December, Sucden said. Still, the broker believes the metal will ultimately pass the test, it said on Tuesday, October 18 in a quarterly report produced in partnership with Metal Bulletin.
It expects gold prices to trade in a range of $1,230-1,420 per oz over the fourth quarter of the year – the uptrend that started late in 2015 is set to continue over 2017…………………………………Full Article: Source

New rules in China aimed at curbing risk and speculation have triggered an exodus of institutional cash from the country’s commodities futures markets and hobbled a thriving niche business for brokers.
Before the ban, futures brokers were launching hundreds of structured products a month offering guaranteed returns, which attracted institutional cash and fed billions of dollars into the commodity futures markets…………………………………..Full Article: Source

The release of cash to the financial sector must be properly channelled to consumers and business, and not hoarded by the banks for balance sheet purposes. It is part of the indomitable human spirit, the sense of heady optimism that hopes for the best outcome when the chips are down.
Policymakers are no different in hoping for the happy ending after all their hard efforts in pulling the world back from the brink after the 2008 financial crash…………………………………..Full Article: Source

EM assets are well positioned to benefit when more favourable trade winds return. Since 2011, global trade growth has been stagnant. With protectionist sentiment intensifying in the US and Europe, and with China appearing to pivot away from export-oriented growth strategies, a hypothesis informally known as “peak trade” has become increasingly popular.
According to this view, the past five years of stagnant trade growth is not temporary, but instead reflects fundamental changes to the global economy that will drive continued stagnation in global trade over the next decade and beyond…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Weakening demand for metals hits shares of largest mining companies. China’s latest trade data have raised concerns about weakening demand for metals, casting a shadow over the sector and knocking the price of copper.
Data showing a 10 per cent fall in China’s exports last month and a greater-than-expected drop in imports sent copper down nearly 3 per cent on Thursday before a slight recovery on Friday. “The drop in exports is negative for industrial commodities raising concerns about weakness in the manufacturing sector,” said Caroline Bain, an analyst at Capital Economics…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Shanghai will open a pilot online cross-border commodities financial services platform in the Free Trade Zone in February, using electronic warrants and digitalized technology. The platform has already signed up well-known names, including MasterCard, Singapore’s DBS Bank, Malaysia-based CIMB Bank, Bank of Shanghai and local payment provider ValuePay.
The new system will allow commodities companies registered in the zone to use e-warrants instead of physical documents. It will match companies with commercial banks for lower interest rate loans and insure transparency of transactions in a global network, according to Commodity Info-Tech (Shanghai) Co, which will operate the platform……………………………………..Full Article: Source

China went on an unexpectedly big buying spree for crude oil, coal and iron ore last month, customs data showed on Thursday, even as Beijing cools its overheated property market and concerns linger about the health of the world’s No. 2 economy.
Daily crude imports hit an all-time high as the nation again overtook the United States as the world’s top oil consumer, while iron ore imports were the second highest on record, propelling Shanghai rebar steel futures to five-week highs. Coal and soybean purchases were just below August’s total, but wer e better than analysts had expected……………………………………Full Article: Source

2016 has been a good year for commodities. Year-to-date, the FTSE world Mining index is up just less than 56% in dollar terms, while the FTSE oil and gas index is up just less than 20%.
Such a return to form has been welcome after a pretty dismal performance for the preceding few years, but it has also left the market wondering how much juice is left in the rally. The problem is, the commodities complex is just that - complex. And, there are cogent arguments to be made on both sides of the coin……………………………………Full Article: Source

Australia will be the fastest growing Aaa-rated commodity exporting economy in 2016, according to analysis by Moody’s Investors Service. Behind this analysis is the increase in export volumes and a services sector benefiting from a weaker Australian dollar.
The weaker dollar and lower interest rates have allowed Australia to take an increasing market share of rising global demand for tourism and education services……………………………………Full Article: Source

Even though there is a demand and there are requests to implement co-location facilities in the commodities market, the market regulator said that it do not think that it is time for allowing the facility in the segment.
S K Mohanty, executive director, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), said that while algorithmic trading (algo trading) is part of trading strategy and is more applicable to non-agri products, the market regulator has not thought of bringing in co-location facilities in commodities……………………………………Full Article: Source

Chinese trade data for September was surprisingly dour. Exports contracted 10% from a year earlier. Imports of things like coal, iron ore and oil didn’t fall in volume terms, which should provide some solace to commodities bulls.
But in value terms, as measured in U.S. dollars, overall imports shrank 2%. The hoped-for rebound in Chinese demand for global goods remains elusive. The fall in exports isn’t because China is becoming less competitive. In fact, the opposite is true……………………………………Full Article: Source

A long slump in commodity prices is forcing commodity exporters around the world to reshape their economies. For some Latin American nations, adjusting to reality means getting back to basics.
Top economic officials from the region are trying to refocus attention on underlying overhauls through infrastructure, education, tax policy and regulatory changes to ease business. “Growth by commodity prices going up, it’s nice, but it’s not permanent,” said Ilan Goldfajn, governor of the central bank of Brazil. “So you need to do reforms that increase productivity.”…………………………………Full Article: Source

Options traders are betting gold prices have more room to fall. Last week, as gold suffered its biggest weekly decline in three years, the cost of protecting against a decline in the shiny metal became more expensive than protecting against a rise, according to Macro Risk Advisors.
Bearish put options that protect against a 10% slump in the SPDR Gold Trust over a three-month period now cost slightly more than bullish call options protecting against a 10% rise over that time. A measure of the so-called skew, which essentially subtracts the cost of the call option from the cost of the put option, turned positive last week for the first time since the beginning of the year………………………………….Full Article: Source

Human nature is nothing if not consistent. I’ve seen this dozens of times. At every single intermediate cycle low traders begin to doubt. No matter how strong the bull signals are, when a correction occurs traders find, or make up reasons for why the bear market is still in force or a new bear market is starting.
Folks, bull markets have to have corrections. They don’t signal the end of the bull, they are just profit taking events when price gets stretched too far above the mean, or when sentiment becomes too bullish………………………………….Full Article: Source

All businesses have trade secrets. It could be something easy to identify, like a database of customer contacts, or a new product or service in development. It could be something less easy to describe, like a business process. The EU has recently published Directive 2016/943 on Trade Secrets, which will soon make its way into UK law. So, how will this affect your business?
Existing UK law is currently pretty flexible. It states that confidential information is protected when a person acquires information he knows, or ought to know, is fairly and reasonably to be regarded as confidential……………………………………….Full Article: Source

China has recently ordered more output of thermal coal ahead of the winter. Given the dominance of Chinese output in the world coal market, this is a price-changing event. The markets had accepted the Chinese statement that they had too much capacity. The country embarked on a major pit closure programme, with lower targets for future output. Coal prices rose as a result.
The Chinese were talking of eliminating an annual 60 million tonnes of capacity to deal with oversupply, as part of a longer-term 500 million tonnes reduction programme. Now this autumn they have announced what may be a temporary increase of output instead. Coal prices have fallen back…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Oil could be in for some longer-term trouble, according to one trader who’s looking to cash in on an oil market fall. Crude hit its highest level in almost three months on Tuesday, but Andrew Keene of AlphaShark isn’t fully convinced that the oil rally can be sustained.
In fact, he’s seeing some problems arise amid the oil and gas exploration and production stocks contained within the XOP ETF, as he made clear Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” E&P names have soared this year, with the XOP up 26 percent year to date, but Keene believes his charts are signaling a dip…………………………………….Full Article: Source

CME Group’s metals trading volume averaged 383,000 contracts/day in September, up 30% on the year, the US exchange group said Tuesday. Gold futures and options average daily volumes rose 34% year-on-year to 225,000 contracts, with silver futures and options up 58% to 68,000 contracts, CME said.
CME’s suite of metals products includes precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium), base metals (copper, aluminum, aluminum alloy, alumina, zinc and lead) and ferrous metals (iron ore, ferrous scrap, hot rolled coil and steel billet)…………………………………….Full Article: Source