Conventional wisdom suggests that a Federal Reserve rate hike next month is bearish for precious metals, particularly gold. This is because gold investors aren’t rewarded with the interest coupon payments as Treasury holders are. Thus, the opportunity cost of owning gold is the potential cash flow of interest payments, or dividends if comparing it to equities.
Accordingly, if bond and note yields are on the rise, there is less incentive to be long gold. Or so says the theory. Nevertheless, there is another school of thought which suggests that higher interest rates generally come with higher inflation. This, of course, is supportive to the precious metals markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

It is well-known that India’s government wants to coerce its population into “modernizing” its financial behavior and abandoning its traditions. The recent ban on large-denomination banknotes was not only meant to fight corruption.
In fact, as our friend Jayant Bhandari has pointed out, fresh avenues for corruption immediately opened up upon enactment of the ban. It is a nigh apodictic certainty that governments are lying – whether outright or by omission – when they impose such drastic measures. It should be clear how the State operates once one recognizes its true nature and realizes that “we” are definitely not the State………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Palladium seems to be the winner among precious metals for 2017 so far. As of November 21, 2017, palladium had a whopping rise of 32.5% year-to-date. That figure is far higher than the rises in gold, silver, and platinum. Platinum has the least year-to-date rise so far among the four precious metals.
There’s a lot of noise in the market about the possibility of a deficit in the palladium market. The demand for palladium looks like it’s clearly outpacing the supply. Palladium prices may be clearly reacting to this fundamental calling………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Trump heading closer to presidency has seen a rally in metal and oil prices, further strengthened by the strong US dollar. However, this has generated scepticism about the markets and whether China’s rally will begin to fade out.
Robin Bhar, base metals strategist at Societe Generale said, “When you have copper going up by $US1000 in barely a week you know there is something wrong. Fundamentals don’t change that fast,” according to the SMH. Copper prices shot up by 25 per cent to $US5445 a tonne within one month, with nickel, zinc, and lead also experiencing rises………………………………….Full Article: Source

Ed Morse global head of commodities research at Citigroup, looks at China as the driver of a rally in the copper and iron ore markets. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”.……………………………….Full Article: Source

Copper posted its highest closing price since July 2015 amid a broad rally in commodities on expectations of a pick-up in global manufacturing and infrastructure spending. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Kenneth Hoffman reports.………………………………..Full Article: Source

Investors wrongfooted by second major surprise that prompted a flight from havens. What’s bugging gold? The election as US president of a political neophyte with questionable temperament was supposed to be a sweet moment for gold, perhaps the best-known haven when markets or politics get a little hairy.
And it was, briefly. The yellow metal shot up 4 per cent in the early hours of November 9, as investors digested the year’s second major political upset after the UK’s vote for Brexit…………………………………….Full Article: Source

The conventional wisdom had gold prices skyrocketing in the immediate aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, which put Donald Trump into the White House. But that hasn’t been the case, with gold future sliding through November, with two consecutive weekly price declines leading up to November 19. Last week, December gold futures slid by $7.60, to just over $1,200 per ounce - a nine-month low.
Gold prices rebounded moderately in Monday trading, gaining back 0.4%, to $1,213 an ounce. But a stronger dollar (at a 13-year high) and an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike have gold gurus taking a skeptical tone on the precious metal…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold prices close at a five-month low; Janet Yellen said that a rate increase ‘could well become appropriate relatively soon’. Gold prices closed at a five-month low on Thursday, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations for an interest-rate increase as early as December.
Gold for December delivery settled down 0.6% at $1,216.90 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, its lowest close since June 2. The precious metal reversed gains after trading as high as $1,229.30 an ounce on Thursday morning……………………………………..Full Article: Source

The US election is not as scary as some gold bugs imagined. After a fall, and rebound rally, the gold price resumed its downtrend. Weeks ago we asked who stole the gold? Now we know the answer.
We re-assess the extent of the damage and the now limited potential for recovery. We start with damage assessment. The fall below the historical resistance and support level near $1,290 is critical. The rally was a dead cat bounce, and yes, we were caught on the wrong side of it……………………………………..Full Article: Source

But the precious metal may remain in demand as insurance against potential shocks. Donald Trump was supposed to be good for gold. Not necessarily because his capture of the White House was seen as delivering geopolitical stress.
Nor because gold leaf sales would rise as the president-elect considered stamping his interior design preferences on the Oval office. No. The gold price was mooted to rise because the Republican’s policies would deliver “Trumpflation”……………………………………..Full Article: Source

U.S. election result has failed to produce an uncertainty boost, while rupee voiding has chilled key India market. Gold is being let down by India and Donald Trump. Ahead of last week’s U.S. presidential election, investors looking to bet on a victory by Trump bought gold assets on the theory that the resulting policy uncertainty would be a boost for such havens.
But a week after his win, gold is hovering close to a six-month low of around $1,230 a troy ounce as investment flows out of gold-focused exchange-traded funds and gold futures………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China may need a bigger mallet to hammer the nation’s commodity investors and take the wind out of what Beijing believes is a speculative bubble in prices for natural resources.
A raft of new measures were announced last week aimed at increasing costs for investors using the domestic commodity exchanges, the latest salvo from the authorities in their ongoing attempts to control commodity markets. But evidence from the first week of the increased fees and margins is mixed as to how successful they have been………………………………….Full Article: Source

If you have been puzzled about the crash in gold prices after Donald Trump’s election, you are in the company of almost every analyst and media outlet in the western world. Gold and silver are a major part of the research at The Arora Report.
A combination of our proven precious metal algorithms, extensive resources and knowledge of the emerging markets led us to alert subscribers to The Arora Report early that gold was about to crash and the reason behind it. Immediately after the election, the net position of The Arora Report in gold, silver and miners has been short as part of a sophisticated strategy……………………………………..Full Article: Source

An agreement between OPEC nations over a cut in oil production is “imperative”, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said, according to media reports on Sunday. Khaled al-Faleh called on cartel members to stick to the surprise cut deal, reached in Algiers in September, during a meeting with his Algerian counterpart Noureddine Boutarfa on Saturday.
“In this period marked by unstable oil prices it is imperative to reach a consensus between OPEC nations and to agree on an effective mechanism and precise figures to activate the historic Algiers accord,” Falih was quoted as saying by Algeria’s APS news agency…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Heading into the week, expectations were high that a surprise Trump win would be bullish for gold prices; that optimism has been dashed with gold prices ending the week at a five-month low. Although volatility and uncertainty remain extremely high in financial markets, some analysts are expecting to see lower gold prices in the near-term as markets continue to digest President-elect Donald Trump’s fiscal policies.
Expectations that a Trump presidency will increase infrastructure spending is helping to boost optimism in the industrial metals complex as well as in U.S. equities, while safe-haven assets like U.S. bond yields and gold continue to suffer…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Beyond the short-term volatility as investors become used to the idea of President Donald Trump, the main risk for global commodities is how much of the campaign rhetoric translates into policy reality when the Republican victor moves into the White House.
The problem global commodity markets are currently grappling with is that the new U.S. president hasn’t articulated well-defined policies, rather his campaign was a series of slogans, threats and somewhat vague promises. Nonetheless, there is enough to suggest that Trump’s presidency holds both positives and negatives for commodity demand and prices…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Donald Trump pulled off an upset victory Tuesday for the US Presidency, overcoming Hillary Clinton, who despite recent polls showed that the former Senator had a sizeable lead heading into the election. Yet by the end of the count, it was Trump who captured the required 270+ electoral college votes to win.
And as most major world markets were pricing in an outcome in line with the polls, chaos erupted within the financial markets as votes began to show Trump securing a probable victory. If there is one thing markets hate it is uncertainty. And as Trump will be the first US President without prior government experience to step into office, the outcome is certainly giving markets plenty to worry about…………………………………..Full Article: Source

The foreseeable future under a Donald Trump presidency will prove beneficial for commodities and emerging markets, investor Marc Faber said Wednesday. With huge infrastructure expenditures underway in Asia, “within the stock market … anything that is commodity-related will do well,” Faber, who publishes the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”
He said that there is another notable trade investors should be eyeing in connection with the Trump win………………………………………Full Article: Source

Safe-haven gold was losing ground to a big rebound in the U.S. stock market after its strong overnight losses. ‘I wish I could tell you what happens next, but the markets need some time to reflect on the phrase, President Trump,’ said Kitco Metal’s global trading director, Peter Hug on Wednesday.
Throughout the night, markets saw extreme volatility across the board. Gold moved up some $80, from its low print to its high, and the stock market was at one point 800 points limit down, as it became clear that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton was losing, Hug explained. The focus is now back on the expected Federal Reserve rate hike in December………………………………………Full Article: Source

From late January, Donald Trump will have all the authority of the American executive, and the support of a unified Republican Congress, behind him. He will, therefore, be in a position to deliver profound and lasting change. The near-term economic effect of a Trump presidency is perhaps not of foremost concern to vulnerable racial and religious minorities in America, or to nervous Nato allies in eastern Europe.
But the economic consequences of Mr Trump’s presidency could be enormous, and costly. In the short run, the market reaction will receive most attention. Mr Trump will not be president until early in 2017, and so it falls to markets to anticipate, and price in, expected policy changes………………………………………Full Article: Source

Jeremy Baker, Vontobel Asset Management’s commodity and alternative investment product manager, has said a Donald Trump victory in the US elections would be positive for commodity prices, particularly oil. Trump’s fiscal policy, infrastructure development and his ‘pro-the oil industry’ stance relative to Clinton could cause a rise in commodity prices, Baker said.
“Since infrastructure is very old in the US, development is needed and Trump has been talking a lot about a fiscal policy. Clearly, he would be more pro-the oil industry compared to Clinton.”……………………………………Full Article: Source

A Donald Trump win in the US presidential election – the result is due in a few hours – would be decidedly bullish for gold and could push gold prices to up to $1,400 per oz, analysts said. Hillary Clinton’s policies are also bullish for gold, some noted, but not nearly to the same extent of Trump’s, they said.
Polls to elect the 45th US President will close between 12am and 6am GMT. Factors such as economic data, comments for the US central bank, physical demand, purchases by central banks and economic and political developments outside the US “may mean little for gold until well after the US elections”, HSBC analyst James Steel said…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Copper is on a roll — rallying more than 10.5 percent in two weeks. The industrial metal has been having its best winning streak in four years — in the runup to the presidential election, and some analysts believe it could continue to break out.
While the election is not necessarily the factor driving copper, strategists have watched the weaker dollar in the last two weeks as a positive for the metal, which is also viewed as a proxy for global growth. The dollar slumped as the prospects for Democrat Hillary Clinton were clouded by a new FBI probe………………………………………Full Article: Source

An election win by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump would fuel uncertainty in financial markets, but for commodities, the clear winner would be gold, according to Capital Economics.
“Whatever one’s personal views of the relative merits of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton as president of the U.S., there can be little doubt that global business and investor confidence would suffer in the wake of a Trump win,” or even a disputed victory for Clinton, said Julian Jessop, head of commodities research at Capital Economics, in a Wednesday note…………………………………….Full Article: Source

A Clinton win would be supportive of the gold price, but a Trump triumph could spark as much as a $200 an ounce jump in the price HSBC Chief Precious Metals Analyst James Steel is quoted by Bloomberg as saying adding that the metal could “enjoy at least a 8 percent jump whoever wins the race”:
Both candidates have espoused trade policies that could stimulate demand, with gold offering a potential “protection against protectionism,” he says. Even the relatively more internationalist Democratic candidate has argued for the renegotiation of longstanding free-trade agreements…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold futures are now trading at almost $1,291 an ounce. And HSBC analyst James Steel says the price for the precious metal will rise through 207 no matter who ends up living in the White House.
But he says gold will rise higher if Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump beats Democrat Hillary Clinton. Steel argues that Trump’s policies are more “gold-bullish” than Clinton’s. But it’s, at best, a backhanded compliment……………………………………Full Article: Source

In today’s “Futures in Focus,” Alan Knuckman of Bulls-Eye Options and Bloomberg’s Alix Steel examine market moves related to OPEC oil output. They speak on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”.…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold is set to advance by as much as 15 percent before the end of next year as the US Federal Reserve goes slow on increasing interest rates and the dollar remains subdued, buoying bullion demand, according to Templeton Emerging Markets Group.
“The Fed is going to increase the rates by a little bit, but not excessively, and there is no guarantee that a rise in interest rates will put people off,” executive chairman Mark Mobius said in an interview at a Bloomberg event in Mumbai. “A lot will depend on the real rates.”……………………………………Full Article: Source

I used to live in Washington state. I’m no longer registered to vote there, but if I were, I would vote “Yes” on Nov. 8 for the Washington Carbon Emission Tax and Sales Tax Reduction, also known as Initiative 732, or I-732.
I-732 would make Washington the first U.S. state to have a carbon tax. The tax would be levied on refineries and utilities, who would then pass the tax on to consumers in the form of higher gasoline, electricity and natural gas prices. The tax would start at US$15 per ton of carbon dioxide in July 2017, increase to $25 after one year, then rise with inflation plus 3.5 percent in each subsequent year…………………………………….Full Article: Source

John Dizard on the problems of banks not lending to a problematic asset class. Usually physical commodities prices increase at a faster rate towards the end of an economic expansion, and there is evidence that such a move has already begun. We have seen “surprise” increases in shipping rates, natural gas prices, cocoa, coal and iron ore.
What is different this time is the unwillingness of the large banks to increase their lending against commodities collateral. This is likely to lead to much greater volatility in commodities prices, and more frequent breaks in global supply chains. What should be modest price increases will turn into price spikes and even physical shortages……………………………………..Full Article: Source

After recovering from its recent lows, the price of oil should continue to rise, in the short term at least, experts say. A trend towards equilibrium in the continuing battle between supply and demand, and a rare agreement between the members of Opec, the oil cartel, are among the reasons.
The price of oil is notoriously difficult to project, and any prediction needs to be taken with a hefty dose of salt. However, there appear to be compelling arguments in favour of a continued recovery in the oil price and Telegraph Money has rounded up a selection, along with the opposite view……………………………………..Full Article: Source

With all eyes on Russia’s unveiling their latest nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which NATO has dubbed the “SATAN” missile, as tensions with the U.S. increase, Moscow’s most potent “weapon” may be something drastically different.
The rapidly evolving geopolitical “weapon” brandished by Russia is an ever increasing stockpile of gold, as well as Russia’s native currency, the ruble. Take a look at the symbol below, as it could soon come to change the entire hierarchy of the international order – potentially ushering in a complete international paradigm shift – and much sooner than you might think……………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold prices stayed firm on Wednesday as stronger physical demand for the precious metal, ahead of India’s late-October festival season, offset a steady U.S. dollar. Demand for bullion is expected to pick up ahead of festivals such as Dhanteras and Diwali, which is also a time when gold is traditionally given as a gift.
“A recovery in physical demand provided the foundation for the rally that carried over into later trading,” HSBC analyst James Steel said in a note. “Gold investors brushed aside the negative impact on bullion of a firmer USD.”…………………………………Full Article: Source

Peter Esho, principal at Esho Research, discusses the outlook for commodities, emerging markets stocks and where gold will be by the end of the year. He speaks to Bloomberg’s Yvonne Man and Ramy Inocencio on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.”.…………………………………Full Article: Source

“Markets are never wrong – opinions often are” said Jesse Livermore, a legendary American stock trader of the 1920. Trading your opinion can be dangerous to your P/L statement. At the end of the day, the market is always right. Recent gold market action has been choppy and “noisy.”
Both the bulls and the bears are biding their time. At times like this, even fundamental traders and investors can find important clues on the chart. Here are 3 important signals the daily gold chart is showing now: The 2016 gold uptrend pattern is broken. The late September/early October sell-off broken the rising bull trendline drawn off the December 2015 low on the daily gold chart…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Copper, Aluminum, and Crude Oil have reached at a crossroads and their next moves can dictate where the global economy is headed. Commodities’ next moves can dictate where the global economy is headed. Critical macro releases in the US, Europe, and Japan will shed more light on the dynamics of the global business cycle for Q4.
As the Fed remains ambivalent about its next moves, it is actually the commodity markets that might provide an answer as to when the next interest rate hike will happen…………………………………..Full Article: Source

This Diwali may turn out to be one of the best in recent years for jewellers. The mood on the street is buoyant after gold rallied by more than 20 per cent over the past year, although there has been a bit of price correction ahead of the festival season.
This has increased the number of footfalls in jewellery showrooms, and jewellers are offering various schemes to boost sales. After a couple of dull seasons, we expect this season to see higher gold sales. Of course, given the price volatility of recent years, investors may wonder whether gold will yield superior returns going forward. It is a genuine concern: given that the domestic equity markets are hovering close to record levels, so beating returns from that will be tough…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Copper is not a good doctor. Investors believe that the metal’s price is a reliable way to gauge the health of the global economy, and have nicknamed it “Dr. Copper” for this reason. Copper is found in things like electrical cables, roofing, and other components of the largest capital projects undertaken anywhere.
And so, if copper prices fall because demand is weak, it’s seen as showing a deeper rut elsewhere in the global economy. John LaForge, head of real asset strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said copper helped predict three of the past five recessions in the US — in 1981, 2001, and 2007…………………………………..Full Article: Source

R Srinivasan, MD, Priyanka Bullion, in Madurai, has been in the bullion dealing business for a long time. The North Indian tradition of buying gold during Dhanteras, as part of Diwali, leads to good business during the festival season.
Wanting to buy gold on Dhanteras has increased in recent years, says Srinivasan. This year, too, bookings from his customers have already started. “The influence of North India has increased and people down South, too, think that buying gold on Dhanteras is auspicious. More than jewellery, women now want to buy it as bars of 20/30 gram…” His customers aside, Srinivasan himself too buys gold from the market during Diwali. “I buy for my children, the investment made that day brings luck…”…………………………………Full Article: Source

In 2014, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) declined to reduce oil production in the face of falling prices. Last month, at a meeting in Algiers, OPEC went in the opposite direction, setting out a goal of capping production collectively at 33 million barrels per day.
Why the change of course? And does OPEC’s most recent pronouncement carry any weight? A recent report from the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, and authored by Antoine Halff, director of the center’s Global Oil Markets Research Program, provides some perspective…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold will rise to $1,347 an ounce during the next year, according to a poll of attendees after the London Bullion Market Association’s annual conference in Singapore this week. The LBMA asks audience members where they think each of the precious metals will go as of the 2017 LBMA conference, which is scheduled for Oct. 15-17 in Barcelona.
Participants were most bullish about silver over the next year, the LBMA pointed out. The average of forecasts was $20.90 an ounce, which would be an increase of 18% from the early-morning price of $17.73……………………………………Full Article: Source

Gold prices have enjoyed a hefty climb so far this year as the market continues to guess the pace and timing of the next U.S. interest-rate hike, but the battle for the U.S. presidency is set to take center stage as Election Day nears.
And it doesn’t matter if Republican Party nominee Donald Trump or Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton moves on to be the next president of the United States—gold is likely to come out a winner, George Milling-Stanley, head of gold investment strategy at State Street Global Advisors, told MarketWatch…………………………………Full Article: Source

Investors looking for a buy should still look to gold, even as the U.S. dollar rallies, according to commodities king Dennis Gartman. While the greenback has strengthened in the past week, Gartman and other market watchers argue that bullion is still interesting to watch given its short term trends versus the dollar.
In a research note this week, Wells Fargo Investment Institute said the commodity appeared “oversold”, and was ripe for a bounce back in price. “I find it fascinating that gold has held reasonably well, even tries to rally as the dollar has gotten stronger over the course of the past six or seven days,” said Gartman……………………………………..Full Article: Source

On the macro front the central banks have been doing a good job of incentivising investors to increase their weightings in commodities, notably holdings in hard assets, with gold being the first and prime beneficiary.
A massive 500 tonnes of gold have been added to ETF holdings this year, and as interest rates around the world sink further into negative territory, investor commodity demand should continue to escalate. If the monetary experiment doesn’t deliver results, fiscal stimulus could begin on a global scale……………………………………..Full Article: Source

Who stole the gold? The yellow metal’s dramatic fall from $1,340 to below $1,260 is a break-and-enter theft on a grand scale. It’s going to take a while to find out who stole these profits from open long positions. But what’s more important is to assess the extent of the damage and the potential for recovery.
Let’s start with damage assessment. The fall below the historical resistance and support level near $1,290 is critical. It would be reasonable to expect that this level would provide support for any retracement but instead gold fell straight through this level. Chalk one up for the bears……………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rising inflation and sagging confidence in the ability of central banks to revive global growth will drive up gold, according to Incrementum AG, which says bullion could climb to a record in the next two years.
Consumer prices are set to rise as oil rebounds, while low or negative interest rates and bond buying by central banks have failed to boost economies, said Ronald Stoeferle, managing partner at the Liechtenstein-based company, which oversees 100 million Swiss francs ($101 million). Incrementum was the top precious metals forecaster last quarter, Bloomberg-compiled data show……………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC could cut production at its late-November meeting in Vienna by another 1 percent more than the amount agreed in Algiers last month if producers reckon it is needed, Algerian Energy Minister Nouredine Bouterfa told local Ennahar TV.
He also told Ennahar that OPEC and non-OPEC members would hold an informal meeting in Istanbul on Oct. 8-13 to discuss how to implement the Algiers deal, though he did not give details about who would attend. OPEC producers agreed in Algiers in September to reduce output by around 700,000 barrels per day to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day, its first cut since 2008. OPEC estimates its current output at 33.24 million bpd……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Although silver is taking a cue from gold this week, falling to levels last seen in June, one veteran trader remains bullish on the metal. ‘I think it’s one of the best hard assets to own. It’s got so many good things going for it. You want to own it and you want to be a buyer of it,’ Todd ‘Bubba’ Horwitz, host of the Bubba Show and founder of BubbaTrading.com said.
Like gold, silver prices hit new 3.5-month lows Wednesday with December silver Comex futures settling at $17.695, down 0.45% on the day. Although Bubba said he wouldn’t be surprised to see prices fall to the $17 an-ounce area, he said it would present a good buying opportunity for investors. ‘There is no reason not to own silver and $17 would be a solid level.’…………………………………Full Article: Source

If there’s been a prevailing theme in markets in recent months, it’s been increased optimism over the outlook for commodity prices, bolstering the view that the nadir seen earlier this year will be just that, the lows in the current cycle.
Joining the ranks of Macquarie Bank and HSBC before them, research analysts at Deutsche Bank believe that the recent strength in commodities will persist, at least over the short to medium term, announcing a swathe of price upgrades in a research note released earlier this week…………………………………….Full Article: Source