The Chinese speculators shaking up global commodity markets are switched-on, flush with cash and probably not getting enough sleep. For the second time this year, trading has exploded on the nation’s exchanges, pushing prices of everything from zinc to coal to multi-year highs and sending authorities scrambling to deflate the bubble before it bursts.
Metals brokers described panic earlier this month as the frenzy spread to markets in London and New York, prompting wild swings in prices that show no signs of abating. While billions of yuan have poured in from herd-like Chinese retail investors who show little regard for market fundamentals, brokers and traders say even more is coming from an expanding army of deep-pocketed hedge funds………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Two years ago, global oil prices crashed after the world started pumping out far more crude than anyone needed. That plunge, from $100 per barrel down to $45 per barrel, completely upended the global economy — and cost oil producers like Saudi Arabia billions of dollars in lost revenue.
Now those oil producers have had enough. This Wednesday in Vienna, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will try to reach a deal to cut back sharply on oil production in order to raise global prices. (OPEC is a cartel of 14 major oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq, that account for 40 percent of global production.)……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia’s problems run far deeper than trying to cobble together a deal with fellow OPEC members to curb crude oil output in order to bolster prices. About two-thirds of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports head to Asia, and the kingdom’s struggles in the region’s two biggest importers, China and India, are symptoms of its wider issues in crude markets.
While Saudi Arabia has been increasing the total volume of crude it ships to China and India, it has steadily been losing market share, something that is likely of deep concern given that much of the current and future growth of oil demand is dependent on these two countries………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The oil market is pricing in a 30 percent chance of producers reaching a deal to cut output at OPEC’s meeting in Vienna, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Global benchmark Brent crude may swing $6 a barrel on Wednesday, based on implied volatility for options contracts, analysts including Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie said in a report Monday.
Futures would rally into the low $50s a barrel and average $55 over the first half of next year if the group agrees to a cut, according to the bank. Failure to reach an accord would mean prices would average $45 a barrel through the summer………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Like celebrating Thanksgiving with a houseful of in-laws, OPEC’s autumn meeting in Vienna brings a combination of joy and dread. Something unexpected usually crops up, but the headlines out of both meetings are about the same year after year:
Iran Argues With Saudis. Grandpa Loses Dentures. Venezuela Pleads For Production Cuts. Three Year Old Has A Meltdown. Bomb Blasts Nigeria Pipeline. Sisters Bicker Over Politics………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Even though the markets haven’t behaved logically of late, it would have seemed a slam dunk for gold to rise if Donald Trump won. After all, we faced uncertainty around his policies, rising inflation from infrastructure spending, and higher expected growth rates.
But instead, gold has headed back down more sharply. It had its initial rise in the futures market when Trump looked like he was going to win. But since then, it’s reversed course – the opposite of the stock markets. While I’ve been saying for a long time now that gold still has a lot to lose, a new and interesting dynamic has arisen to add more pressure to the downside………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The rally in metals is showing no signs of slowing down. The Bloomberg Industrial Metals sub-index posted the biggest five-day gain since 2011, as zinc touched a nine-year high. Prices rallied after China’s top economic commission approved a $36 billion plan on new rail links around Beijing, boosting demand for industrial raw materials.
Zinc for delivery in three months rose 2.9 percent to settle at $2 900 a metric ton at 5.50pm on the London Metal Exchange, after touching $2 985, the highest since October 2007………………………………………..Full Article: Source

High global stock levels expected to keep food prices low during 2017, however, Donald Trump presidency may bring currency uncertainty that will translate into volatile food prices, Rabobank said in its Agri Commodity Market Outlook for 2017 here.
The record-high stock levels are set to keep worldwide food prices low during 2017 even as inflation starts to rise in many developed economies, according to the report from Rabobank, the global food and agribusiness bank. Following the election of Donald Trump as president-elect earlier this month, Rabobank is cautious on the outlook for the US………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities analysts at Goldman Sachs raised their outlook for base metals prices on Monday with currencies as a tailwind, but lowered their gold projection and offered a mixed outlook for Australia-based metals producers as the commodities cycle peaks.
The upward revisions included prices for iron ore, hard coking coal, oil & base metals (Aluminum, Cu, Zinc, Pb & Nickel) on 3- 6- and 12-month basis. The Goldman analysts Craig Sainsbury, Meredith Schwarz and Ken Lek see strength in the Australian dollar and U.S. dollar………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani agreed in a telephone call on Monday to coordinate steps on global oil and gas markets, the Kremlin said.
The coordination also included a dialogue between Russia and OPEC member countries, the Kremlin said, adding that both men noted the importance of measures taken through OPEC to reduce output as a key factor in stabilising the world oil market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

A bounce in the iron ore price to near two-year highs may deliver a short-term boost to the federal budget, but economists warn the benefit could be short-lived and only offset slower-than-expected wages and employment growth.
As Scott Morrison prepares the mid-year budget update for ­December 19, iron ore yesterday traded at $US79.20 a tonne, nudging $US80 for only the second time since October 2014. The May budget forecast an iron ore price of $US55 a tonne, up from a previous estimate of $US39, which Labor had said was an “heroic” assumption………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Remember when Barack Obama defeated republican presidential nominee Senator John McCain? Or Usain Bolt’s first appearance in the Olympic games? Well… that’s how far back you need to go if you want to see zinc prices as high as they are now.
Last week, zinc closed just short of $2,300 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, the highest level since early 2008. Zinc is the first industrial metal we can say that about (and possibly not the last one)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities prices have begun rising from their long slump, providing good news for the embattled shipping trade. But uncertainty and ambiguity in China, whose demand dictates the prices of many resources, are casting doubts over how long the rebound can last.
The main drivers for the recent rise include China’s continued domestic stimulus and the country’s cuts in coal production, along with increased commodity speculation following the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president………………………………….Full Article: Source

The election of Donald Trump to the presidency gives OPEC members another reason to agree to oil production cuts when they meet next week, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s head of global commodities and derivatives research.
Saudi Arabia is trying to guide OPEC members toward a deal to cut production by 4 to 4.5 percent, in a bid to balance global supply and perhaps boost oil prices by about $10 a barrel. Merrill’s Francisco Blanch told CNBC there are three ways Trump’s win and the Republican clean sweep of Congress will affect OPEC’s forecast:…………………………………Full Article: Source

Rivals of OPEC seeking to reach its most-prized oil customers are finding that the long way around is better than any shortcut to success. As the group seeks to implement a deal to limit output, the glut that was exacerbated by its prior strategy of keeping taps open has spawned a market structure that’s benefiting competitors in sales to Asia.
Cargoes from Europe’s North Sea will reach South Korea in coming months, while U.S. Eagle Ford shale crude as well as Mexican oil arrived at Yeosu port in November. Japanese and Thai refiners have bought West Texas Intermediate from BP Plc………………………………….Full Article: Source

OPEC’s final push to implement the Algiers supply accord and boost oil prices shifted focus to Iran and non-members such as Russia as Iraq appeared to reverse its opposition to output cuts.
The extension of shuttle diplomacy — including a visit to Tehran from an architect of the September agreement and an unusual Vienna breakfast with non-OPEC ministers — comes after an OPEC committee failed this week to hammer out details of how producers will share the burden of cuts. With less than a week until the crucial Vienna ministerial meeting, the refusal of just one major producer to participate could scuttle the whole deal………………………………….Full Article: Source

Metal’s price hits 17-month high as U.S. durable goods data jumps 4.8%. Copper prices hit a 17-month high on Thursday morning in London as bullish expectations for manufacturing spending outweighed the dollar hitting multiyear highs.
The three-month London Metal Exchange copper contract was up 1.27% at $5,842 a metric ton in midmorning trade in Europe, the highest price since mid-June 2015………………………………….Full Article: Source

Mood begins to turn on the metal as long-held assumptions are questioned. This year’s commodities slouch is playing catch up. Copper has suddenly burst into life, surging 14 per cent this month to above $5,500 a tonne as investors start to pick apart widely-held assumptions about the underlying dynamic for a metal used in everything from wiring to power grids.
The concern over a wall of supply from projects commissioned in the aftermath of the financial crisis is fading just as more optimistic views on demand in China and the US emerge………………………………….Full Article: Source

OPEC officials are struggling to reach a final agreement on how to share out production cuts implied by the preliminary output accord agreed by ministers in September. In theory, all OPEC members would benefit in absolute terms if an output cut produced even a modest and sustained rise in oil prices, so there are strong financial incentives for a deal.
But all members are acutely aware an agreement is about more than just a short-term boost to export earnings and has implications for the future regional power structure in the Gulf, which makes a deal harder…………………………………Full Article: Source

On a day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average touched 19,000 for the first time in history, investors would be forgiven for asking themselves if the shine has come off gold as a safe-haven investment.
The price of gold has breached the psychologically important $1,200 per ounce level after reaching an all-time high of over $1,800 in 2011, as the chart courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank shows. Over the last 10 years, this price level has been an important area of support and resistance as gold first rallied following the great economic recession in 2008 and 2009 but then sold off from 2011 when inflation failed to materialize in the global economy…………………………………Full Article: Source

Krishna Memani, chief investment officer at OppenheimerFunds, discusses the issues driving the rise of the commodities market, re-inflating the U.S. economy, and the risks of the Japanese-style stagnation in the U.S. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”.…………………………………….Full Article: Source

If broker UBS is right, yesterday’s virile performance by our blue-chip miners should be only the beginning, with BHP Billiton and pure-play iron ore king Fortescue Metals worth more than double their current value on current commodity prices.
That’s presuming these spot prices continue into perpetuity, which is a convenient assumption indeed. The firm’s resources team regularly compare the implied earnings of the key resources stocks based on commodity spot prices and relative to consensus (and UBS) estimates………………………………………Full Article: Source

Oil surged for a third day on signs OPEC members have made progress toward finalizing a deal to cut output. January futures rose as much as 1.5 percent in New York after the December contract expired 3.9 percent higher Monday.
Talks on assigning quotas to individual countries went well, Libyan OPEC Governor Mohamed Oun said after preliminary meetings at the group’s headquarters in Vienna. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it’s now “tactically bullish” on the likelihood of an agreement……………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran and Iraq have emerged as major stumbling blocks as OPEC officials tried to make progress on the broad outlines of a production cut that would thrust the cartel back into the position of directly trying to influence petroleum prices.
Two years after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries made the historic decision—on Thanksgiving Day—to let prices fall without taking action, the cartel’s members met for midlevel talks to nail down an agreement ahead of their formal Nov. 30 meeting………………………………………Full Article: Source

Back in August 1971, President Nixon shocked the world by taking the dollar off the gold standard. The dollar had been on gold standard since Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. The biggest bombshell for gold investors in 45 years since Nixon announcement may be ahead.
That bombshell is a potential ban on import of gold into India. If this happens, there is a high probability of a one-day drop in gold that could reach $200. A prerequisite to understanding this potential development is to understand what has happened in India recently………………………………………Full Article: Source

Iron ore and steel are resuming their rally in China as investors return to the market to pick up commodities made cheaper after days of steep losses, but a shaky demand outlook suggests the gains will again be fleeting.
Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have surged 6 per cent to their upside limit at 580.50 yuan ($114). Construction steel rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has also jumped 6 per cent to hit its exchange-set ceiling at 2900 yuan a tonne………………………………………Full Article: Source

Prices of steel and its raw materials soared to hit their trade limits in China on Tuesday as investors returned to the market to pick up sold-off commodities, but a shaky demand outlook suggests the gains would again be fleeting.
Chinese rebar steel and raw materials like coal and iron ore pulled back from this month’s multi-year highs after exchanges in Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou cracked down on speculative trading by raising transaction charges………………………………………Full Article: Source

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said investors should bet on higher commodities prices in the next year as manufacturing picks up around the world, the first time the bank has recommended an overweight position for the asset class in more than four years.
Purchasing managers’ indexes strengthened in all major regions in October, helping to spur gains in iron ore, copper and other base metals. Goldman raised its iron ore price forecasts, citing an unexpected resilience in steel usage and a demand boost coming from broad restocking, as well as its oil price estimates into next year…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Not only will OPEC reach a deal this month, but Goldman Sachs’ global head of commodities research said the cartel will have to “take it to conclusion” once the process starts.
OPEC members and noncartel producers have been working on an agreement to freeze oil production increases and reduce ouput. In September, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it would look to cut production to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels a day…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, discusses the prospect of an OPEC oil output deal and his investment strategy ahead of this month’s meeting. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”.…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold threatened to breach the $1,200 level on Friday before rebounding. The sentiment was helped by word that the Russian central bank added 1.3 million ounces to reserves in October and that was before the price drop. The Chinese and Russians have been supporting the market below $1,250 this month, which is helping to offset the large futures and ETF liquidation.
The outflow from gold ETFs last week alone was 19 tons, and the net long futures positions through Tuesday was the lowest since March. As a December rate hike seems to be a done deal and already reflected in the Fed funds and the dollar rally it seems that being short gold at this point has limited downside…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Copper’s recent turbo-charged rally has upended the market’s narrative of supply surplus. Too much supply was supposedly the reason why copper, until this month, was the worst performer among the base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME).
But right now the market is struggling to work out where all that extra copper actually is. LME stocks are low and falling. Stocks registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) are rising but still low…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Copper’s aggressive advance in the week since Donald Trump was elected president of the United States suggests investors are more bullish about growth than they have been in years, but strategists wonder if the rally is for real.
The metal used in cables and wiring jumped to a 17-month peak as high as $2.53 per pound after Trump’s victory on hopes he’ll make good on commitments to ramp up in construction in the U.S. After reaching a peak close to $4.50 in 2011, prices have languished around the $2 mark for the past few years, largely due to excess supply in a slow global growth environment…………………………………….Full Article: Source

The possible implications of a Trump presidency in the United States are spurring notable movements in other commodities apart from oil. Copper, in particular, has put in a stellar showing. Prices soared to a 17-month high following the Nov 8 election, and were up 18.6 per cent as at last Friday since the start of the year.
The surge was fuelled largely by hopes that more spending in the US - as promised by President-elect Donald Trump - would lead to higher demand……………………………………Full Article: Source

For the commodity bulls out there, the past few months have been rollicking fun. Coking coal prices have tripled since mid-year and iron ore has doubled since January. However, in the past week or so, the news flow has turned somewhat negative.
Iron ore and coking coal futures have endured some stunning reversals — iron ore falling 8 per cent on Wednesday alone — as speculators took their profits and ran……………………………………Full Article: Source

For years, Saudi Arabia was a close American ally, while Russia was a distant enemy. That’s why America purchased a lot of oil from Saudi Arabia and very little from Russia. For the period 1973-2005, America’s oil imports from the Saudi kingdom remained steady, in the range of one to 1.5 million barrels per day.
Over the same period, America’s oil imports from Russia fluctuated widely, rising from next to nothing in the 1970s and 1980s to a couple of hundred thousand barrels a day in the early 2000s, before falling back to less 38 thousand in 2015……………………………………Full Article: Source

OPEC’s diverse 14-country membership has responded to the oil price malaise of the past two years in contrasting ways, perhaps permanently altering the group’s dynamics as the world becomes more reliant on its crude in the long-term, according to the International Energy Agency.
OPEC’s share of global oil production, including condensate, will approach 50% by 2040, up from its current 42%, the IEA said Wednesday in its World Energy Outlook, as non-OPEC production will significantly drop off after 2020. But any benefits from OPEC’s increased market share will be spread unevenly, as its Middle East members figure to grow more influential, at the expense of its African and South American members……………………………………..Full Article: Source

President-elect Donald Trump is very unlikely to restrict imports of crude oil from Saudi Arabia despite threats to do so issued during the election campaign. Trump is first and foremost a showman and impresario rather than a policy wonk. Much of what he said on the campaign trail was intended to mobilise support rather than provide a detailed programme for government.
The media “never takes (Trump) seriously but it always takes him literally. I think a lot of voters who vote for Trump take Trump seriously but not literally,” as technology billionaire Peter Thiel observed in October……………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia has decided to officially list shares in the state-owned Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest producer of oil. It is expected that the company will immediately become the most valuable listed company on the planet.
Along with the IPO, though, will be the big reveal of a number of secrets about Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves, and global energy analysts are eagerly awaiting an answer to the question of exactly how much crude oil lies within the country’s borders……………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran overtook political rival Saudi Arabia as India’s top oil supplier in October, shipping data showed, just ahead of a producers’ meeting this month to hammer out the details on output cuts aimed at reining in a global glut.
Iran used to be India’s second-biggest oil supplier, a position it ceded to Iraq after tough Western sanctions over its nuclear development programme limited Tehran’s exports and access to finance. But India’s oil imports from Iran have shot up this year after those sanctions were lifted in January……………………………………..Full Article: Source

As Donald Trump proves, gold attracts those drunk on power. But artists have shown it can point the way to the divine. Gold can be erotic, heavenly, kingly – or hellish. If it has those meanings in art, what does it mean for Donald Trump?
Is it just a crass image of wealth – pure bling – or does it also have something more grandiose about it? The world’s future may depend on what he sees in all that gold he likes to have around him. Hopefully it is just profane, because if he craves gold for its divine and monarchical qualities, look out. A man of gold is unlikely to bring about a golden age……………………………………..Full Article: Source

The US election is not as scary as some gold bugs imagined. After a fall, and rebound rally, the gold price resumed its downtrend. Weeks ago we asked who stole the gold? Now we know the answer.
We re-assess the extent of the damage and the now limited potential for recovery. We start with damage assessment. The fall below the historical resistance and support level near $1,290 is critical. The rally was a dead cat bounce, and yes, we were caught on the wrong side of it……………………………………..Full Article: Source

The current copper spike may not last, but it shows copper’s long-term potential, especially if part of the announced infrastructure program materializes. Unlike copper, other metals aren’t in a sweet spot due to unlimited supply, and recent and large price increases.
Gold is the riskiest of all metals, especially now with no more election uncertainty, a stronger dollar, and the expected FED action in December that will have us seeing higher……………………………………..Full Article: Source

We have been asked a lot in the past day or so about the impact on the base metals of Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US presidential election. There is interest in the short term Trump-effect in light of the strength in base metal prices.
And there is interest in the longer term effect of ‘Trumponomics’ on the market fundamentals. Before the election, the base metals were already on a tear from LME Week in London last week, where quite a bullish consensus formed, especially for copper. So there was momentum from that, and from technical break-outs on the many of the charts……………………………………..Full Article: Source

A months-long rally in China’s commodity futures may be coming to an end after the country’s exchanges took steps to crack down on speculative trading. Futures for coal and iron ore that rallied sharply this year have gyrated this week following a dramatic rout on Friday evening after China’s three commodity exchanges increased margin requirements.
“It ran up too much and the increased margin requirements by the exchanges are starting to bite,” said a trader at one house that has taken big bets on commodities futures this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC and Russia will meet in Doha on Thursday for another round of talks without ministers from Iran and Iraq, the two countries that pose the biggest obstacle to a deal to cut production. Bloomberg’s Simon Kennedy reports on “Bloomberg markets: European Close.”.………………………………………Full Article: Source

Some Indian gold traders are placing bulk, short-term import orders on fears that Prime Minister Narendra Modi might soon add curbs on overseas purchases of the metal to his withdrawal of high-denomination banknotes in his fight against ‘black money’, traders and jewellers said.
India is the world’s second biggest gold buyer, and it is estimated that one-third of its annual demand of up to 1,000 tonnes is paid for in black money - untaxed funds held in secret by citizens in cash that don’t appear in any official accounts………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Our November metal price trends report showed an industrial metals complex buoyed by strong Chinese demand and bullish on the future, thanks to the election of republican presidential candidate Donald Trump who promises to curtail regulations on metals producers and the energy suppliers that provide power for smelting, steelmaking and mining.
While some of the metals turned in a flat performance during the month of October, almost all quickly took off after the election. Now, as our lead forecasting analyst, Raul de Frutos, recently wrote, the industrial metal bulls are in full charge………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The oil market is “pretty pessimistic” about OPEC reaching a deal to cut production, BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley said. Oil prices will probably stay around current levels if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fails to implement the deal it reached in Algiers in September to limit output, Dudley said.
The producer group is meeting in Vienna on Nov. 30. “People are pretty pessimistic right now about a potential agreement, you see that in the price,” Dudley said. If the talks fail, prices “will stay around the level we’re at.”…………………………………Full Article: Source

Kingdom’s energy minister says move would risk damaging the US economy. Saudi Arabia has warned Donald Trump that the incoming US president will risk the health of his country’s economy if he acts on his election promises to block oil imports.
In a sign of the difficulties Mr Trump faces over his campaign pledges to create “complete American energy independence” from “our foes and the oil cartels”, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister pointedly reminded the president-elect that the US “benefits more than anybody else from global free trade”, adding, “energy is the lifeblood of the global economy”………………………………….Full Article: Source