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VRS - who has written 48800 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


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Why Fighting Donald Trump On Climate Change Is A Waste Of Time

Posted on 17 November 2016

Before everyone gets overly upset about Donald Trump and climate change consider this one thing: Donald Trump’s denial of climate change is irrelevant.

Combating Climate Change Requires Smart And Urgent Action By World Powers – Analysis

Posted on 17 November 2016

Paris climate agreement that was adopted at the Climate Change Conference in December 2015 to replace the Kyoto Protocol, came into force November 4. Within the framework of this document, representatives of 195 countries agreed, in particular, to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Trump election to have implications for Commodities

Posted on 16 November 2016

President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will eventually have important implications for commodity markets, said Barclays in a research note. “On the environment, he is a known climate-change denier and promises the country’s environmental agenda will be guided by ‘true specialists in conservation, not those with radical political agendas,’” the bank added.

Gauging the Trump effect on global commodities

Posted on 16 November 2016

There is perhaps no better reminder that the US presidency is a position of extraordinary power. Since the victory of US President-elect Donald Trump last week, businesses and governments have been working overtime to try to discern exactly what his presidency might mean for a range of important policy areas.

China needs a bigger hammer to beat down commodity prices: Russell

Posted on 16 November 2016

China may need a bigger mallet to hammer the nation’s commodity investors and take the wind out of what Beijing believes is a speculative bubble in prices for natural resources.

BP CEO Sees Oil Market ‘Pretty Pessimistic’ About OPEC Cuts

Posted on 16 November 2016

The oil market is “pretty pessimistic” about OPEC reaching a deal to cut production, BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley said. Oil prices will probably stay around current levels if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fails to implement the deal it reached in Algiers in September to limit output, Dudley said.

Russia Says Another Oil Crash Not Likely, But $40 Oil For Three Years

Posted on 16 November 2016

Chairperson of Russia’s Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said on Monday the probability of another drastic collapse in oil prices is low, though recovery won’t be substantially above current rates.

Saudi Arabia warns Trump on blocking oil imports

Posted on 16 November 2016

Kingdom’s energy minister says move would risk damaging the US economy. Saudi Arabia has warned Donald Trump that the incoming US president will risk the health of his country’s economy if he acts on his election promises to block oil imports.

Oil prices soar six percent on renewed hopes of OPEC output deal

Posted on 16 November 2016

Oil prices jumped 6 percent on Tuesday, with U.S. crude notching its biggest daily percentage gain in seven months, on renewed expectations that OPEC will agree later this month to reduce a global supply glut.

OPEC, Russia Expand Diplomatic Push to Secure Oil-Cuts Deal

Posted on 16 November 2016

OPEC embarked on a final diplomatic effort to secure an oil-cuts deal, with its top official heading on a tour of member states as Russia scheduled informal talks in Doha this week with nations including Saudi Arabia.

As markets rally, should you still hold gold?

Posted on 16 November 2016

Trump’s election victory has tempered demand for the yellow metal. A desire to hold “real assets” in turbulent times has massively boosted the popularity of gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs). But following the biggest political upset of the year — Donald Trump’s US presidential victory — gold prices have gone into reverse.

Gold will be back, eventually

Posted on 16 November 2016

Anyone waiting for gold to spring back and into an unrestrained bull run after a surprisingly poor reaction to Donald Trump’s election to the White House are likely to be disappointed, according to RBC analyst Tyler Broda.

Is India Seriously Considering A Gold Import Ban?

Posted on 16 November 2016

Trade body Indian Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA) has created a flutter among some of its 2500 members by informing them through a text message that the government might ban imports of gold into the country until the end of the current fiscal year (FY17) and advance the last date of deposit of old notes for jewellers to November 15 to crackdown on black money.

Copper Joins Hot Commodity Club as Chinese Punters Top Trump

Posted on 16 November 2016

After shaking up iron ore, steel and coal futures this year, Chinese investors have taken on copper. The metal used in cables and wiring jumped 11 percent last week, the most since 2011, as President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to spend as much as $1 trillion on infrastructure boosted the outlook for demand. But the impetus for the surge probably had its origins elsewhere, namely in China.

Gold Price Should Go Higher On Global Risks and Trump – Capital Economics

Posted on 16 November 2016

The gold price should rise in the medium and long term on global risks and the Trump Presidency, according to leading research consultancy Capital Economics.

TD Securities: ‘Gold Is Down But Not Out’

Posted on 16 November 2016

Gold is “down but not out,” says TD Securities. After an initial spike higher a week ago when it became apparent Donald Trump would be the next U.S. president, the precious metal has since turned lower. Prices fell as the market factored in ideas that U.S. fiscal stimulus will lift inflation expectations, move yields higher and boost the dollar.

Trump’s Spending Frenzy Boosts Copper at Gold’s Expense

Posted on 16 November 2016

Copper, coming off its best week since 2011, is leaving haven assets such as gold in the dust. With an improving economic outlook in China and bets on increased U.S. infrastructure spending bolstering the demand outlook, copper and other industrial metals are expected to outperform precious metals in the coming months, said Chuck Self, the chief investment officer of iSectors LLC.

Palladium Prices at Their Highest in More Than Five Weeks

Posted on 16 November 2016

Precious metal gets a boost from hopes for stronger U.S. auto sales. Palladium prices on Tuesday rose to their highest in more than five weeks, bolstered by hopes of stronger auto sales in the U.S.

Metals Discount Trump’s Emissions Stance

Posted on 16 November 2016

Anyone expecting that President-elect Donald Trump will have a free hand in tearing up U.S. rules on auto emissions may find a rude shock in precious metals markets: The ratio between platinum and palladium prices is collapsing. The platinum-palladium ratio is close to its lowest levels since 2002.

Iron ore swoons as China eyes reining in commodity speculators

Posted on 16 November 2016

The music may be stopping for iron ore, with the commodity falling sharply overnight and dragging down Australia’s major miners as traders started to worry about Chinese regulators stepping in to reduce sharp price swings.

George Soros’s fund bailed out on the big gold ETF

Posted on 16 November 2016

George Soros’s hedge fund Soros Fund Management sold its stake in a widely used gold exchange-traded fund in the third quarter, according to a regulatory filing out Monday.

Commerzbank: Gold ETF Holdings Post Second Straight 16-Tonne Decline

Posted on 16 November 2016

Holdings of gold by global exchange-traded funds have now fallen by roughly 16 tonnes for two days in a row, points out Commerzbank, citing data tracked by Bloomberg. “As such, holdings in the gold ETFs have now been reduced both since the start of the month and since the start of the quarter,” Commerzbank says.

China’s ICBC becomes Dubai commodities exchange settlement bank

Posted on 16 November 2016

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the world’s largest bank by assets, has become a settlement bank for the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (DGCX), the exchange said on Tuesday, allowing more investors to clear transactions in yuan.

Hanjin bankruptcy sees freight rates bottom out

Posted on 16 November 2016

Spot rates of oceangoing container ships appear to have bottomed out. In addition to growing demand for ships bound for the U.S., the collapse of leading South Korean marine shipper Hanjin Shipping accelerated attempts by other companies to shore up earnings with higher freight rates.

Currency Swap Pinches India’s Cash Economy

Posted on 16 November 2016

After Narendra Modi voided the largest bank notes, the hoarding of small bills is slowing small-scale commerce. A week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi abruptly voided India’s largest bank notes, people across the country are holding on to small bills, a response that is pinching cash-based economic activity and causing some analysts to re-examine their forecasts for output growth.

Will Brexit’s impact on currency strengthen the case for Scottish independence?

Posted on 16 November 2016

The impact of the Brexit vote on Scottish consumers has been well documented, with the plummeting pound sending the cost of everything from Walkers Crisps to Birds Eye fish fingers on an upward trend.

European climate chief sees China link on carbon trading

Posted on 16 November 2016

The European Commission’s top climate official says a nationwide emissions trading scheme (ETS) to be rolled out in China next year could pave the way for a link-up to the EU system, taking a step towards an international carbon trading market.

Now Is The Best Time Ever To Invest In The Global Economy!

Posted on 16 November 2016

While it may seem as though the global economy faces a difficult outlook, in reality there is a vast amount of opportunity on offer for long term investors. Certainly, the US economy could endure a challenging period after the election of a new President and the potential for interest rate rises.

Commodity prices show global recovery may be on the horizon

Posted on 15 November 2016

In a major shift in economic trends, prices of raw materials started surging in October, possibly signaling that emerging economies are finally regaining strength after going through a distinctly rough patch. The shift may be behind the recent stock market rally and the jump in long-term interest rates in the U.S.

Chinese Speculators Shake Up Global Commodity Markets

Posted on 15 November 2016

Global commodity markets are being rattled again by a familiar force: China’s army of cash-rich investors. A renewed rush into Chinese commodity futures is encouraging wild swings in prices for products including coal, iron ore and rubber, raising concerns about the return of a speculation frenzy.

China trumps Trump over outlook for industrial commodities: Russell

Posted on 15 November 2016

The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president has added froth to prices for metals and bulk commodities, but the real driver is, and will remain, the outlook for China. While price volatility associated with the somewhat surprising election of the brash real estate mogul was always likely, hopes for a Trump-led revival of industrial commodities and coal look way too optimistic.

Trump a boon for Aussie commodities

Posted on 15 November 2016

Despite uncertainty around the ramifications of a Trump presidency, it appears Australian commodities could emerge the real winner from the US election. While details of his exact policies remain unknown, Donald Trump’s largely touted infrastructure spending would likely support commodities, particularly in Australia, according to HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham.

Trump Effect on Commodities: Copper Up, Oil Down (Video)

Posted on 15 November 2016

Emad Mostaque, strategist at Eclectic Strategy, examines what is driving oil as prices dip to a three-month low and looks at the commodities market in the wake of the U.S. election. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”.

Commodities: Flying High or Feet of Clay

Posted on 15 November 2016

What does the fate of the BRIC countries and the launch of the latest acronym for investors tell us about today’s commodities businesses? Forget the BRICs and the MINTs; it appears that there is a new acronym in town. In October, market research firm, Absolute Strategy Research (ASR), launched CARBNS, a new commodities-dominated grouping, consisting of Canada, Colombia, Australia, Russia, Brazil, Norway, and South Africa.

No OPEC deal could see oil price fall to $30

Posted on 15 November 2016

Jeremy Baker, commodity and alternative investment product manager at Vontobel, has warned the price of Brent crude could fall to $30 a barrel if OPEC’s proposed deal to limit oil supply falls through.

OPEC Expects Crude Oil Prices to Hit $60 by 2020

Posted on 15 November 2016

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that crude oil supply could outstrip demand by 730,000 bpd (barrels per day) in 1Q17. High US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, the strengthening dollar, and rising US crude oil rigs could also pressure crude oil prices.

Are Low Oil Prices Good for the Economy?

Posted on 15 November 2016

Some say yes because low prices give consumers more money and cut manufacturing costs. Others say the damage to the oil sector cancels out the benefits. Oil prices have been on a wild ride lately.

Oil rebounds from three-month lows on renewed hopes for OPEC cut

Posted on 15 November 2016

Oil prices were largely steady on Monday, rebounding from three-month lows, on a report saying that OPEC members were seeking to resolve their differences on a deal to cut production ahead of a meeting later this month.

Is OPEC Still Relevant in Energy Markets?

Posted on 15 November 2016

The group recently agreed to production cuts to try to prop up low oil prices, but left details for later. For two years, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has appeared powerless to stop a slide in prices that has punished the economies of oil-dependent members, including Saudi Arabia.

Should you buy or sell gold after Trump’s victory?

Posted on 15 November 2016

When it became increasingly clear that Donald Trump was about to win the US election, the price of gold soared. It reached a high of $1332 per ounce and sustained most of this rise through the day following the election victory. However, since then it has fallen back to $1220 per ounce, as investors have favoured risk-on trades rather than risk-off ones.

India, not Trump, is the real reason behind the crash in gold prices

Posted on 15 November 2016

If you have been puzzled about the crash in gold prices after Donald Trump’s election, you are in the company of almost every analyst and media outlet in the western world. Gold and silver are a major part of the research at The Arora Report.

Gold Demand In Q3 And Trump: WGC

Posted on 15 November 2016

Last week, the World Gold Council (WGC) published a new edition of its quarterly report on gold demand. What does Gold Demand Trends Q3 2016 say about the demand for gold in the third quarter of 2016? What does the WGC think about the impact of Trump’s victory on the gold market.

Will Downward Trend in Gold and Silver Continue?

Posted on 15 November 2016

The gold market is going through some unusual changes right now. Although there is a surging demand from regions such as India, the overall gold price is crashing hard. In fact, its value dropped by 6% on Thursday and Friday, which is quite surprising. It appears that investors deem precious metals too”risky” to invest in right now.

Metals rally overprices impact of Trump’s infrastructure plan: Goldman Sachs

Posted on 15 November 2016

The sharp rally in metals and bulk commodities was “too much too fast,” because the impact of Donald Trump’s infrastructure plan on global demand was tiny compared to that of China, Goldman Sachs analysts cautioned in a report.

Copper Edges Higher on Demand Optimism

Posted on 15 November 2016

Copper prices rose Monday amid continued market optimism that a Trump presidency would boost infrastructure spending in the U.S. Copper for December delivery settled up 0.5% at $2.5210 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, closing near its highest level in more than a year.

Copper to enter ’substantial’ supply deficit starting from 2021: Sonami

Posted on 15 November 2016

The copper market will start to enter a “substantial” supply deficit from 2021, pushing prices of the industrial metal higher, the head of Chile’s national mining association Sonami said. “In the near term, mining companies are not investing in additional capacity and copper demand is growing at a pace of around 2 percent a year,” Sonami Chairman Diego Hernandez told the Copper 2016 industry conference in Kobe, Japan.

Metals Madness Is Spreading to Silver

Posted on 15 November 2016

The post-U.S. election mayhem in the metals market that saw copper rally 11 percent last week and gold plunge has spread to silver. Prices are down about 10 percent in the past two days, the most in three years. Silver is known as the devil’s metal because of its often wild swings, and a 10-day measure of its price volatility is near the highest since 2014.

Dry bulk commodities gripped under the spell of metallurgical coal’s renaissance

Posted on 15 November 2016

It‘s hard to imagine metallurgical coal exerting much influence on other commodity markets. But when the price of a commodity quadruples in slightly over 10 months, its clout amplifies.

Why Oil ETFs Can Rebound off Recent Lows

Posted on 15 November 2016

The United States Oil Fund, which tracks West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, is off nearly 15% over the past month, putting the widely followed oil exchange traded product dangerously close to another bear market.

India rupee ban: Currency move is ‘bad economics’

Posted on 15 November 2016

India’s dramatic move to scrap 500 ($7.60) and 1,000 rupee notes is poor economics, a leading economist says. Kaushik Basu, the former chief economist for the World Bank, says the “collateral damage” is likely to outstrip its benefits.

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