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VRS - who has written 48800 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


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Copper prices rise nearly 20% in one month

Posted on 21 November 2016

Copper stood out among the hottest commodities in the past one month, as prices of the base metal surged nearly 20 per cent on hopes of improving demand from top consumer China and a steady decline in stocks at warehouses.

Alternative Strategies In ETFs Vs Mutual Funds

Posted on 21 November 2016

As is probably no surprise to readers of this website, the push toward using ETFs over mutual funds in a portfolio is ever-growing. Asset flow data exhibits a rather large swing in assets away from mutual funds toward ETFs.

Libya’s government faces forced currency devaluation

Posted on 21 November 2016

The government of near-bankrupt Libya faces the threat of a forced devaluation of the country’s currency and an end to fuel subsidies, in a move that could spark a wave of popular anger and the fall of the teetering UN-backed administration in Tripoli.

India: When cash lost currency

Posted on 21 November 2016

The government’s shock-and-awe move on November 8 to ban old ₹500 and ₹1,000 notes has dominated headlines across the country since. Meant as an attack on black money and forged currency, the move also resulted in long queues outside banks and ATMs to exchange, withdraw and deposit currency.

China working to make yuan key currency

Posted on 21 November 2016

The Chinese government is making strategic moves to construct an Asia-based economic bloc based on the Chinese yuan, also known as the renminbi, with the ambition of turning it into a currency capable of replacing the U.S. dollar in the world economy.

China prepares to open national carbon market

Posted on 21 November 2016

In the wake of Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US presidential election, and his refusal to recognise climate change, China’s new carbon market is attracting particular attention. China’s move is not just one of the most important outcomes of the US-China bilateral climate talks – it may be the most watched national climate change move since the Paris Agreement came into force.

Sustainable Business Will Move Ahead With or Without Trump’s Support

Posted on 21 November 2016

If we take the incoming president of the United States at his word, things look dire for the cause of sustainability. Donald Trump and many of his advisers appear hostile to action on climate change and to progress on many social issues that companies have already embraced, such as diversity and LGBT rights.

Is Trump about to trigger a global trade war?

Posted on 21 November 2016

President-elect Donald Trump said a lot of crazy things during the divisive election campaign, but few were crazier than his suggestion of launching a trade war with China. The Donald accused China of manipulating the yuan to make its exports more expensive and give it a favourable trading advantage.

Commodities set for rebound in 2017

Posted on 18 November 2016

The commodities markets are rebalancing and the worst is over for the oil market, as a slowdown in production is setting prices up for a steeper rebound than predicted at the beginning of the year, Citigroup analysts said.

Top banks’ nine-month commodities revenue down 22 percent

Posted on 18 November 2016

Commodities-related revenue at the 12 biggest investment banks fell 22 percent in the first nine months due to weak industrial metals trading and lackluster investor interest, a report by financial industry analytics firm Coalition said.

Global oil market to become more dependent on OPEC crude in long-term, IEA projects

Posted on 18 November 2016

OPEC’s diverse 14-country membership has responded to the oil price malaise of the past two years in contrasting ways, perhaps permanently altering the group’s dynamics as the world becomes more reliant on its crude in the long-term, according to the International Energy Agency.

Trump’s empty threat to stop buying Saudi oil: Kemp

Posted on 18 November 2016

President-elect Donald Trump is very unlikely to restrict imports of crude oil from Saudi Arabia despite threats to do so issued during the election campaign. Trump is first and foremost a showman and impresario rather than a policy wonk. Much of what he said on the campaign trail was intended to mobilise support rather than provide a detailed programme for government.

Saudi Aramco Will Reveal Just How Much Oil Saudi Arabia Has

Posted on 18 November 2016

Saudi Arabia has decided to officially list shares in the state-owned Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest producer of oil. It is expected that the company will immediately become the most valuable listed company on the planet.

Iran overtakes Saudi as top oil supplier to India

Posted on 18 November 2016

Iran overtook political rival Saudi Arabia as India’s top oil supplier in October, shipping data showed, just ahead of a producers’ meeting this month to hammer out the details on output cuts aimed at reining in a global glut.

Gold Reverses Gains Under Pressure From Stronger Dollar

Posted on 18 November 2016

Gold prices close at a five-month low; Janet Yellen said that a rate increase ‘could well become appropriate relatively soon’. Gold prices closed at a five-month low on Thursday, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations for an interest-rate increase as early as December.

Why gold can spell heaven or hell

Posted on 18 November 2016

As Donald Trump proves, gold attracts those drunk on power. But artists have shown it can point the way to the divine. Gold can be erotic, heavenly, kingly – or hellish. If it has those meanings in art, what does it mean for Donald Trump?

Gold has been ‘Trumped’, here are the downside targets

Posted on 18 November 2016

The US election is not as scary as some gold bugs imagined. After a fall, and rebound rally, the gold price resumed its downtrend. Weeks ago we asked who stole the gold? Now we know the answer.

Gold fails to bounce despite talk of ‘Trumpflation’

Posted on 18 November 2016

But the precious metal may remain in demand as insurance against potential shocks. Donald Trump was supposed to be good for gold. Not necessarily because his capture of the White House was seen as delivering geopolitical stress.

UBS Closes Physical Gold-Trading Operations At Three Swiss Branches

Posted on 18 November 2016

According to one Swiss national newspaper, the European physical gold market shrank Wednesday as Swiss bank UBS closed its gold-swapping operations at three of its banks — in Zurich, Basel and Geneva. In a statement to the Tagesanzeiger, UBS said that its decision to close its “gold switches” at the three branches was a “business policy decision” to reduce the bank’s costs.

The Metal Conundrum After Trump’s Victory

Posted on 18 November 2016

The current copper spike may not last, but it shows copper’s long-term potential, especially if part of the announced infrastructure program materializes. Unlike copper, other metals aren’t in a sweet spot due to unlimited supply, and recent and large price increases.

Base metals and the Trump effect

Posted on 18 November 2016

We have been asked a lot in the past day or so about the impact on the base metals of Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US presidential election. There is interest in the short term Trump-effect in light of the strength in base metal prices.

Despite Current Prices, Copper, in the Medium Term, Remains Gloomy

Posted on 18 November 2016

When commodity producers talk down the market you know prospects really aren’t very good for a price rise. Iván Arriagada, chief executive at Antofagastawas interviewed by the Financial Times while at the recent LME week and is quoted as saying Copper will continue to lag behind as other commodity prices rebound, adding the market is likely to remain oversupplied for at least the next three years.

6 Best Practices for Executing ETF Orders

Posted on 18 November 2016

Global ETF assets topped $3 trillion in 2016, as the combination of transparency, tax efficiency and cost savings continue to attract investors to the market. ETFs under management have doubled since 2010 and are forecast to double again by 2021.

Foreign banks shaken by Malaysia’s move to halt currency slide

Posted on 18 November 2016

Foreign banks in Malaysia on Thursday were trying to work out how to comply with the central bank’s clamp-down on offshore ringgit trading, a move the broader market views as a form of capital controls.

Currency notes remains topic of discussion everywhere

Posted on 18 November 2016

Conversations at public places provide an index of a society’s primary concerns at the moment. In India, it would not be off the mark to say that it is now about money - or more specifically about having currency notes.

Reducing carbon emissions: Responsibility of key nations

Posted on 18 November 2016

US President-elect Donald Trump has expressed doubts over climate science, signifying it as a hoax. How can we expect such a country to pay for the carbon sink when Trump threatened to withdraw from the already ratified Paris Agreement?

MIT: Emissions Trading For Transport = EU’s Cheapest Means Of Reducing Transport Emissions

Posted on 18 November 2016

Rather than adopting an approach similar to the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standard in the United States, the European Union could achieve similar carbon dioxide emissions reductions simply by extending the existing emissions trading system to encompass transportation (in addition to the electricity generation and energy-intensive industries it currently covers), according to a new study from MIT and its research partners.

Intellectus Partners: Trump Negative for Global Economy

Posted on 18 November 2016

Ben Emons, chief economist and head of credit portfolio management at Intellectus Partners, discusses the impact of Donald Trump’s presidency on the U.S. and global economy, China’s debt level and the 10-year JGB yield. He speaks to Bloomberg’s Betty Liu and Yvonne Man on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.”.

Bumper rice harvests drag prices to decade-lows

Posted on 17 November 2016

Years of drought brought by the weather cycle El Nino to South and Southeast Asia, home to the world’s biggest rice traders, have given way once more to soaking rains, boosting harvests of the region’s major staple crop and sending prices tumbling to 10-year lows.

China commodity futures dive as long rally fizzles

Posted on 17 November 2016

A months-long rally in China’s commodity futures may be coming to an end after the country’s exchanges took steps to crack down on speculative trading. Futures for coal and iron ore that rallied sharply this year have gyrated this week following a dramatic rout on Friday evening after China’s three commodity exchanges increased margin requirements.

IEA expects U.S. shale output rise if OPEC pushes oil to $60

Posted on 17 November 2016

U.S. shale oil producers will increase their output if oil prices hit $60 a barrel, meaning OPEC will have to walk a fine line if it curtails production to prop up prices, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

IEA warns of another boom-bust cycle in oil

Posted on 17 November 2016

Commodities were broadly lower as the US dollar notched up fresh multi-year highs, even as analysts sounded a bullish note on oil and gold. Front month Brent crude futures fell back, albeit following sharp gains in the previous session, with Brent down 0.5% to $46.72 while West Texas Intermediate was drifting 0.2% lower to $45.71 on the ICE.

Oil demand won’t peak before 2040, despite Paris deal: IEA

Posted on 17 November 2016

The International Energy Agency expects global oil consumption to peak no sooner than 2040, leaving its long-term forecasts for supply and demand unchanged despite the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement entering into force.

Oil-Price Rally Undercut by Supply Data

Posted on 17 November 2016

Russian energy minister’s comments boost crude, but prices are dragged down by growing stockpiles. Crude oil settled lower after flipping between gains and losses Wednesday, as renewed optimism that major oil producers could agree to scale back production competed with data showing that crude supplies are still swelling.

OPEC Starting Talks Without Iran, Iraq

Posted on 17 November 2016

OPEC and Russia will meet in Doha on Thursday for another round of talks without ministers from Iran and Iraq, the two countries that pose the biggest obstacle to a deal to cut production. Bloomberg’s Simon Kennedy reports on “Bloomberg markets: European Close.”.

Saudi Arabia warns Trump against banning oil imports

Posted on 17 November 2016

Saudi Arabia is cautioning President-elect Donald Trump against carrying out a threat to cut off American purchases of the kingdom’s oil.

BMI revises gold price forecast for 2017 to $1 300/oz

Posted on 17 November 2016

BMI Research has revised its forecast gold price for 2017 downwards to $1 300/oz, from the previously anticipated $1 400/oz. This, after Republican candidate Donald Trump was elected the next President of the US, resulting in a sharp decline in gold prices.

What Is Gold Saying About Trump?

Posted on 17 November 2016

Amidst the larger drama of the election last Tuesday, the financial markets staged their own little drama. When the Dow futures plummeted by hundreds of points as it began to look as though Donald Trump would achieve a surprise victory, some people hastily jumped to the conclusion that financial markets feared a Trump presidency. Not so.

Trump and Modi Take Shine off Gold

Posted on 17 November 2016

U.S. election result has failed to produce an uncertainty boost, while rupee voiding has chilled key India market. Gold is being let down by India and Donald Trump. Ahead of last week’s U.S. presidential election, investors looking to bet on a victory by Trump bought gold assets on the theory that the resulting policy uncertainty would be a boost for such havens.

Gold Prices Give Up Gains as Dollar Strengthens

Posted on 17 November 2016

Metal had been as $1,230 a troy ounce earlier in session; silver also loses ground. Investors have hammered the metal in recent weeks, as better economic data made a December rate increase by the Federal Reserve more likely and political uncertainty faded after U.S. presidential elections.

India’s gold traders on edge as PM Modi fights ‘black money’

Posted on 17 November 2016

Some Indian gold traders are placing bulk, short-term import orders on fears that Prime Minister Narendra Modi might soon add curbs on overseas purchases of the metal to his withdrawal of high-denomination banknotes in his fight against ‘black money’, traders and jewellers said.

How Will Gold Trade in This ‘Twilight Zone’ - Marin Katusa (Video)

Posted on 17 November 2016

There are several factors that has gold prices stuck in what Marin Katusa describes as a “twilight zone.” Founder of Katusa Research and one of the organizers behind the Silver & Gold Summit, Katusa told Kitco News that gold prices could move either way, even below $1,100 an ounce. The yellow metal has been under pressure since the U.S. election, hovering near the key support level of $1,200.

Copper Rebound Needs More Than Donald Trump, Freeport Says

Posted on 17 November 2016

The head of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. says it will take more than Donald Trump to keep copper rallying. “In terms of being a long-term driver of copper prices, it will have an impact but not a huge impact,” Richard Adkerson, chief executive officer of the world’s largest publicly traded copper miner, said.

Miners hit as metals lose their shine for investors

Posted on 17 November 2016

Heavyweight mining stocks slumped back yesterday as investors took profits after a post-US election bounce in metals prices lost momentum. Investors had piled into miners and industrial metals on bets Donald Trump will drive through an infrastructure bonanza in the US, last week, triggering copper’s best performance since 2011.

November Metal Price Trends: The Base Metal Bulls Take Over

Posted on 17 November 2016

Our November metal price trends report showed an industrial metals complex buoyed by strong Chinese demand and bullish on the future, thanks to the election of republican presidential candidate Donald Trump who promises to curtail regulations on metals producers and the energy suppliers that provide power for smelting, steelmaking and mining.

ETF, A Rising Star In The Investment Universe

Posted on 17 November 2016

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have solidified their position as one of the successful financial innovations of recent years, having become a strong alternative to mutual funds and other financial products. Since its inception in 1993, the ETF market has grown significantly, reaching USD 3.2 trillion in assets worldwide in August 2016.

ETF Funds Pump $1.9 Billion into Energy in the First Half of November

Posted on 17 November 2016

An analysis of commodity markets from Bloomberg Intelligence today pointed to oil likely being in the $40-$60 per barrel range for the foreseeable future, but that hasn’t stopped ETFs from pumping more money into energy in November. Commodity market strategist Mike McGlone said it would take “a substantial development to get above $60 … or below $30, even as the market remains oversupplied.”

Yuan Weakness Is Metals’ Strength

Posted on 17 November 2016

Most commodities are denominated in, and therefore pegged to, the U.S. dollar but these days the Chinese yuan is starting to have as much influence on prices.While there were fundamental triggers behind the recent spike and drop in raw materials, it’s becoming clear that Chinese trading was among the main drivers.

An overview of the evolution of paper currency in India

Posted on 17 November 2016

Governments have, for centuries spent a large amount of time and resources in the production of currency in a way that can best serve as the representation of regional and later national pride and interests.

The economics of currency reform

Posted on 17 November 2016

The challenge now is to minimize the pain of currency swap—to the economy as a whole but especially to the informal sector. The serpentine queues outside banks across the country have quite naturally grabbed public attention in the past few days.

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