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Alternative Market Briefing

Long Trumps Short or the Trump and Dump? The Trump Trades Set Up for 2017

Friday, December 02, 2016

Matthias Knab, Opalesque:

Peter Lupoff, Portfolio Manager of Tiburon Capital Management writes on Harvest Exchange:

Coming into the new year, I historically write what we call the "Tiburon Panorama" –a look at what would appear to us to be ways to make money long and short in the new year, as well as new and evolving risks. With this recent US Presidential election and transition to a Donald Trump presidency, the transition, unlike any time in my experience, is anything but status quo. Because of the checks and balances in the US system of government, the president typically has limited direct impact on the economy. However, President-elect Donald Trump is arguably likely to be different, not just because some of his policy stances (especially on trade) depart from Republican orthodoxy, but also because his party now controls both branches of Congress (US electorates rarely award the Presidency as well as all of Congress to one party). Consequently, we think his policies could have a considerable impact –both positive and negative –on the US economy and markets consequently, in the months and years ahead. Therefore, this year we frame the opportunities and risks in the context of this new moment and new administration.

The Trump economic agenda has two main elements. One concerns trade-related tariffs and the possible "re-negotiation" of existing trade agreements. The other is an economic stimulus composed of tax cuts (and tax reform) as well a......................

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