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Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Blackstone ’s vice chairman of multi-asset investing Byron R. Wien on Monday issued his annual list of ten surprises on a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for 2016.
His predictions ranges from Hillary Clinton’s victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, weak U.S. stocks arising from a weak economy, global instability, devaluation of the Chinese yuan, oil languishing at $30 a barrel, and others.
Byron defines a "surprise" as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is "probable," having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.
Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2016 are as follows:
1. Riding on the coattails of Hillary Clinton, the winner of the presidential race against Ted Cruz, the Democrats gain control of the Senate in November. The extreme positions of the Republican presidential candidate on key issues are cited as factors contributing to this outcome. Turnout is below expectations for both political parties.
2. The United States equity market has a down year. Stocks suffer from weak earnings, margin pressure (higher wages and no pricing power) and a price- earnings ratio contraction. Investors keeping larg...................... To view our full article Click here
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