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Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva: The Swiss economy showed signs of stagnation this year. This may continue in the next year.
According to Credit Suisse, a large investment bank, the growth of the Swiss GDP is set to slow down in 2015 from 1.8% to 1.6% mainly because the domestic economy is losing momentum.
Up to the third quarter of 2014, quarter-on-quarter growth remains sound. Credit Suisse revised its GDP estimates from 1.4% to 1.8% in 2014.
The bulk of the economy is losing momentum just as Europe keeps the brake on exports, and even a low recovery in export would not offset the sluggish domestic economy. Credit Suisse forecasts real export growth of 5% for 2015, after a the nominal balance of trade posted a record surplus of CHF7.7BN in Q4-2014, much of it thanks to chemicals and pharmaceuticals as well as low oil prices.
Consumer growth, after seeing growth rates of 2% in 2012 and 2013, has barely reached that level in 2014 and is expected to be 1% in 2015. Indeed, drivers such as immigration, real estate prices, demand for consumer durables, and health care have already slowed down.
The bank sees stagnant unemployment levels, limited wage increases and low company price power due to the Swiss Franc’s recent appreciation.
Net immigration should decrease a bit next year (from an estimated 80,000 persons in 2014 to an estimated 70,000 in 2015), due to the unemployment level. On the other hand, the positive employment trends experienc...................... To view our full article Click here
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