| For the oil forecasting community, the most recent collapse in oil prices marks one more failure. The long trail of forecast errors includes the market implosions of 1982 and 1986, not seeing the run-up in commodity prices after 2004 and now missing the end of the same commodity boom. For those of us who depend on oil price forecasts, this is a big problem.
Try to forecast the economic outlook for Houston or the Gulf Coast, for example, without a good handle on oil prices. Right now, I am coping with oil price uncertainty by preparing several scenarios for Houston’s economic outlook, mostly conditioned by guessing when and how fast oil prices might recover...............................................Full Article: Source
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