| Did your company or investment manager use $50/bbl as a forecast Scenario price for oil this year? If not, why not? And has this question even been asked, as you finalise forecasts for 2016? In recent months, many readers have told me despairingly of their efforts to suggest alternative Scenarios to last year’s “consensus” view that prices would always be $100/bbl.
They are even more despairing today, when they see the forecast for the next few years – which almost always suggests prices will now rise steadily. My suggestion is that you ask your company to evaluate the success of its forecasts over the past 5 – 10 years: Did it simply adopt the consensus view of $70/bbl in 2007, when budgeting for 2008?..............................................Full Article: Source
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