| Suppose the oil price stays low – either around its present level of $45 a barrel, or even lower – what are the consequences? The question is worth asking because there is a tacit assumption that the halving of the oil price at the end of last year is not sustainable and that prices will gradually recover, perhaps to around $80 a barrel, though this may take several years.
That at least is the Opec position, but there is no consensus on this, for some forecasters have argued that prices will stay low for longer. Goldman Sachs is among the bears, predicting that prices will remain low for 15 years, while Barclays’ mid-range estimate is $85 a barrel by 2020, with a top range at $100. The truth is, of course, that no one can know, just as hardly anyone spotted the collapse of the price last year ahead of the event...............................................Full Article: Source
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