| At an academic seminar once, an economist remarked that oil prices were stochastic in nature. The student next to me asked what that meant, and I explained stochastic means random, and economists use it to look smarter. He then asked me if oil prices moved randomly and I explained that when an economist says something is random, it means he can’t explain or predict it.
The recent work by Phillip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, like others before them, has found that people who are relative novices tend to do as well or better as experts at a variety of things, from psychological diagnoses to economic forecasting...............................................Full Article: Source
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