| For oil price forecasters, it is all but mandatory to start with self-deprecating humor, because the track record is so bad. Late 2013, surveys showed predictions for 2014 of $104 per barrel for Brent. Citi’s forecast of a significant drop raised eyebrows, in fact. Now, one reporter noted that expert forecasts range from $30-200, which is both true and funny, but doesn’t capture the actual expectations, primarily because of the time differential.
But once prices were clearly falling, there was a rush to be the most bearish. (I suggested back in December that a floor seemed to have been reached at about $50, although at other points on the way down I believed OPEC would manage to stabilize prices at those levels.)..............................................Full Article: Source
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