| Oil was the major loser overnight on speculation that Iraqi oil production won’t be disrupted by escalating violence in the country. Although the Iraqi army yesterday ceded control of the Baiji refinery in the north, they also recaptured some territory along the border with Jordan and Syria, according to Iraqi state TV.
Moreover, the fighting has remained concentrated in the north and center of the country, while the oil industry is concentrated in the south, so there has not been that much disruption to oil exports. The movement in the markets is largely a risk premium that rises and falls with the insurgents’ progress. The change in Brent futures over the last month suggests that the market is most concerned about what will happen this year and not as concerned about the longer-term future of oil prices...............................................Full Article: Source
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