15.08.2013 - Why is the price of oil so hard to predict?
At a recent annual retreat of elite Wall Street money managers, the hosts reported on how well last year's attendees predicted various economic measures. Forecasting is notoriously difficult, and nobody guessed how high stock prices would be today. But the most interesting miss was that the group was way too low on oil prices. Should we be surprised? Oil prices are hard to forecast because they are highly sensitive to shocks in both global demand and supply. Forty years ago, historic disruptions to global oil supplies destabilized the world economy for a decade...............................................Full Article: Source
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