| The prior major rally — and peak — in natural gas during the June 14 to July 31 timeframe (2.168 to 3.277 in the nearby futures) represented a secondary advance off of the April 19 low at 1.902. As such, when natural gas peaked on July 31, it was not confirmed by the majority of my momentum gauges.
That huge momentum non-confirmation of price strength set up the potential for an outsized downward corrective sequence. The vulnerable technical setup, the uncooperative weekly inventory readings, and the fact that the "generational base" formation was in its infancy — and likely needed more TLC — all combined to create conditions for an outsized downward correction in natural gas from 3.277 to 2.575 (-21.5%) into the August 29 low...............................................Full Article: Source
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