New Managers April 2012

Peter Urbani' Statistics
Peter Urbani's quantitative analysis of emerging managers' performance

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Performance Drivers of the Opalesque Emanagers Index

This month we examine the performance drivers of the Emerging Managers Index by treating it as if it were a portfolio or fund of funds and performing an attribution analysis on the constituent sub-indices mapped to the Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Strategies.

The results are instructive and give a fairly clear indication as to where the excess performance of the Emanagers Index has come from.

Over the 3.25 year period since Jan 2009 the Emanagers index has delivered a +14.7% compound annual return (CAGR ) versus the +8.91% of the benchmark Dow Jones Credit Suisse Blue Chip Hedge Fund Index.

To the extent that the Index is a semi-passive portfolio whose Strategy Asset Allocation is largely determined by market forces one might expect that there would be a significant Allocation or market timing effect driving returns. However, this is not the case for the Emanagers Index and the allocation effects relative to the benchmark portfolio are in fact -1.74% p.a. This probably reflects the lagged momentum effect of new funds being launched in recently strong performing areas.

In contrast the Selection effect is +4.18% p.a. suggesting a high quality of funds coming into the index and that it is not merely dominated by past winners.

The Emanagers index has significantly higher weightings to Managed Futures ( 30.4% v.s. 16.4), Equity L/S ( 33.9% v.s. 15.9%) and significantly lower weightings in Event Driven ( 3.5% v.s. 21.4%) and Emerging Markets ( 0% ) and Convertible Arbitrage.

Emerging Manager Strategy weights versus Benchmark

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This article was published in Opalesque's New Managers a top-down monthly analysis, news and research publication on the global emerging manager space.