Fri, Dec 9, 2016
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
New Managers May 2013

Peter Urbani' Statistics - Ignoring serial auto-correlation may understate hedge fund volatility by more than 30%

In a recent paper, Marcos Lopez de Prado of Hess Energy Trading Company and David H. Bailey of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, derive closed form approximations for Expected Maximum Drawdown (MaxDD). They also derive formulae for the expected time to reach the Maximum Drawdown (t*) and the expected Maximum Time Under Water (MaxTuW), which under the assumption of IID Normality turns out to be three times the time taken to reach the maximum drawdown. Bailey and de Prado show that this ‘Triple Penance Rule' holds independently of the Sharpe Ratio.

This has important consequences for people who may be using some combination of drawdown and Sharpe Ratio to stop out loss-making funds.

Moreover, Bailey and de Prado show that under the more general case, when first-order serial-auto-correlation is accounted for, the Triple Penance rule may no longer apply as the higher volatility of positively serial auto correlated funds may enable them to recover faster than 3 x the length of time it took the drawdown to occur.

They state,” We provide a theoretical justification to why investment firms typically set less strict stop-out rules to portfolio managers with higher Sharpe ratios, despite the fact that they should be expected to deliver superior performance. We generalize this framework to the case

of first-order auto-correlated investment outcomes, and conclude that ignoring the effect of serial correlation leads to a gross underestimation of the downside potential of hedge fund strategies, by as much as 70%. We also estimate that some hedge funds may be firing more than three times the number of skilful portfolio mana......................

To view our full article please login

This article was published in Opalesque's New Managers a top-down monthly analysis, news and research publication on the global emerging manager space.
New Managers
New Managers
New Managers

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Institutions - Texas County & District culls 5 hedge funds, reallocates to existing managers, Kentucky board gives final approval to halve hedge fund portfolio, $38bn Finnish fund moves assets to U.S. as Europe flounders, South Korea’s National Pension Fund holds 5% stake in 62 listed companies[more]

    Texas County & District culls 5 hedge funds, reallocates to existing managers Texas County & District Retirement System, Austin, continues to reduce the number of hedge funds, but not the size of its $6.2 billion hedge fund portfolio. It will redeem a total of $760 million from five hedg

  2. Opalesque Roundtable: Australian family offices search for good risk adjusted returns, happy to pay for skill[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Australian family offices want foremost good risk adjusted returns, and they are happy to pay for the skill, and in some cases, the limited capacity of an active manager. Jonas Daly, Head of Distribution at B

  3. StepStone announces close of Swiss Capital acquisition[more]

    StepStone Group LP announced it has successfully closed the acquisition of Swiss Capital Alternative Investments AG, one of the leading private debt and hedge fund solutions providers in Europe. The transaction was originally announced in May 2016, and has been in the process of receiving regulatory

  4. Investing - Stephen Cohen investing $275m in free clinics treating veterans' mental health issues, California Resources loses favor with hedge funds[more]

    Stephen Cohen investing $275m in free clinics treating veterans' mental health issues From Healthcarefinancenews.com: …Now, a new chain of free mental health clinics for vets has opened in five cities across the United States to fill the gap. The much-needed new treatment is underwritten

  5. Hedge funds flat in last week of November 'in sympathy with markets’[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Hedge funds were close to flat in the last week of November in sympathy with markets, which took a pause ahead of the OPEC meeting and Italian referendum. The Lyxor Hedge Fund Index was -0.1% as of end November 29 (-1.7% YTD), according to the latest