Fri, Apr 29, 2016
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
New Managers May 2013

Peter Urbani' Statistics - Ignoring serial auto-correlation may understate hedge fund volatility by more than 30%

In a recent paper, Marcos Lopez de Prado of Hess Energy Trading Company and David H. Bailey of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, derive closed form approximations for Expected Maximum Drawdown (MaxDD). They also derive formulae for the expected time to reach the Maximum Drawdown (t*) and the expected Maximum Time Under Water (MaxTuW), which under the assumption of IID Normality turns out to be three times the time taken to reach the maximum drawdown. Bailey and de Prado show that this ‘Triple Penance Rule' holds independently of the Sharpe Ratio.

This has important consequences for people who may be using some combination of drawdown and Sharpe Ratio to stop out loss-making funds.

Moreover, Bailey and de Prado show that under the more general case, when first-order serial-auto-correlation is accounted for, the Triple Penance rule may no longer apply as the higher volatility of positively serial auto correlated funds may enable them to recover faster than 3 x the length of time it took the drawdown to occur.

They state,” We provide a theoretical justification to why investment firms typically set less strict stop-out rules to portfolio managers with higher Sharpe ratios, despite the fact that they should be expected to deliver superior performance. We generalize this framework to the case

of first-order auto-correlated investment outcomes, and conclude that ignoring the effect of serial correlation leads to a gross underestimation of the downside potential of hedge fund strategies, by as much as 70%. We also estimate that some hedge funds may be firing more than three times the number of skilful portfolio mana......................

To view our full article please login

This article was published in Opalesque's New Managers a top-down monthly analysis, news and research publication on the global emerging manager space.
New Managers
New Managers
New Managers

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Hedge funds see $14.3bn outflows in Q1, CTAs and multi-strategy lead net inflows[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: The hedge fund industry saw net outflows of investor capital in the first quarter of the year, totaling $14.3bn, data from Preqin showed. This continues from the $8.9bn overall net outflows that funds recorded in Q4

  2. Performance - Blackstone profits plunge 77% as performance fees dive, Hedge fund stars' fortunes hostage to market swings, Hedge fund manager goes from billionaire to millionaire in profits plunge, Hedge funds biggest losers in SunEdison's 'magic money machine'[more]

    Blackstone profits plunge 77% as performance fees dive From FT.com: Blackstone, the world’s biggest manager of alternative investments from private equity to real estate, suffered from sharply lower performance fees amid turbulent markets in the first three months of the year, even as it

  3. Third Point calls Q1 "catastrophic" for hedge funds[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: The first quarter of this year was rocky for hedge funds based on aggregate performance from the industry, but now we are beginning to hear what the managers thought of it as quarterly letters make their way to investors. Dan Loeb, CEO of New York-based $17 bill

  4. Asia - Stabilization of China's capital outflows may hinge on Janet Yellen, Fink says China to do well this year as bubble threat postponed, Chinese hedge fund to invest in India’s infrastructure[more]

    Stabilization of China's capital outflows may hinge on Janet Yellen From Bloomberg.com: Whether China’s recent stabilization of its currency and capital outflows continues -- or downside pressure reignites -- may hinge in large part on Janet Yellen. If the Federal Reserve chair sticks to

  5. …And Finally - After all, judges are human too[more]

    From Newsoftheweird.com: In March, one District of Columbia government administrative law judge was charged with misdemeanor assault on another. Judge Sharon Goodie said she wanted to give Judge Joan Davenport some files, but Davenport, in her office, would not answer the door. Goodie said once the