Wed, Jul 29, 2015
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
New Managers May 2013

Peter Urbani' Statistics - Ignoring serial auto-correlation may understate hedge fund volatility by more than 30%

In a recent paper, Marcos Lopez de Prado of Hess Energy Trading Company and David H. Bailey of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, derive closed form approximations for Expected Maximum Drawdown (MaxDD). They also derive formulae for the expected time to reach the Maximum Drawdown (t*) and the expected Maximum Time Under Water (MaxTuW), which under the assumption of IID Normality turns out to be three times the time taken to reach the maximum drawdown. Bailey and de Prado show that this ‘Triple Penance Rule' holds independently of the Sharpe Ratio.

This has important consequences for people who may be using some combination of drawdown and Sharpe Ratio to stop out loss-making funds.

Moreover, Bailey and de Prado show that under the more general case, when first-order serial-auto-correlation is accounted for, the Triple Penance rule may no longer apply as the higher volatility of positively serial auto correlated funds may enable them to recover faster than 3 x the length of time it took the drawdown to occur.

They state,” We provide a theoretical justification to why investment firms typically set less strict stop-out rules to portfolio managers with higher Sharpe ratios, despite the fact that they should be expected to deliver superior performance. We generalize this framework to the case

of first-order auto-correlated investment outcomes, and conclude that ignoring the effect of serial correlation leads to a gross underestimation of the downside potential of hedge fund strategies, by as much as 70%. We also estimate that some hedge funds may be firing more than three times the number of skilful portfolio mana......................

To view our full article please login

This article was published in Opalesque's New Managers a top-down monthly analysis, news and research publication on the global emerging manager space.
New Managers
New Managers
New Managers

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Bridgewater turns bearish on China[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: The world’s biggest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and one of the most vocal of China’s potential is now turning its back against the world’s second largest economy as it joins a growing list of high-profile investors who are challenging China’s potentials.

  2. Launches - Ex-Brevan Howard star Rokos builds team for new fund, Former Och-Ziff manager’s firm starts health care hedge fund, Industry veterans launch commodity investment firm Aron Capital Management, Nikko Asset Management launches two UCITS funds, Capital Group plans to debut Asian investor targeted fund[more]

    Ex-Brevan Howard star Rokos builds team for new fund From WSJ.com: Chris Rokos, a former star trader at Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, has hired an economist from Nomura to join the team he’s assembling for his much anticipated hedge fund launch. Mr. Rokos, whose firm is due to b

  3. Institutions - Pension fund dismisses Texas consultant, Rhode Island pension fund gets 2.2% investment return, far below assumed rate of 7.5%, New Jersey pension investments see a drop-off in returns[more]

    Pension fund dismisses Texas consultant From Sandiegouniontribute.com: The county retirement board on Thursday terminated the Texas consultant who was given the reins of the $10 billion pension fund, and whose investment picks left many employees and retirees feeling taken for a ride.

  4. SWFs - Sovereign wealth funds paid around $14 billion in fees[more]

    From SWFinstitute.org: When it comes to the financial sector, asset management is one of the most profitable industries in the world. The Boston Consulting Group put out a 2014 figure saying there is US$ 74 trillion worth of professionally-managed assets. One of the fastest growing institutional inv

  5. Investing - Carlyle teams with TCW in push for ordinary investors[more]

    From Bloomberg.com: Carlyle Group LP isn’t backing down from its goal of offering alternative strategies to the masses, despite early setbacks. The Washington-based firm is teaming up with TCW Group, which is majority owned by Carlyle funds, to offer three vehicles that give ordinary investors acces

 

banner