Sat, Feb 24, 2018
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
New Managers March 2013

Peter Urbani' Statistics - Monte Carlo may overestimate individual asset risks by up to two thirds

 

Â

Injudicious use of Monte Carlo simulations could overestimate individual asset risks by two thirds if strict normality is assumed and the shape of the underlying distributions is ignored. Similarly total returns and Sharpe Ratios could be overstated by 20% or more when assuming strict normality. Individual assets that have positively skewed distributions may have their returns under estimated by 13% or more.

Most investors and software do not consider the asymmetry of returns and risks when conducting Monte Carlo simulations of future portfolio returns and simply rely on the central limit theorem to assume normality. Whilst the CLT certainly holds, it does so only over the long-term. In the short run, things may be very different indeed.

This month we look at the three main methods of generating correlated random deviates for the purposes of performing Monte Carlo simulations, namely;

  • The Cholesky Method,
  • The Spectral ( SVD ) Method and,
  • The Inverse method

As you may know, Monte Carlo simulations were invented by Stanislaw Ulam and John von Neumann during their work on the Manhattan project. The requirement for significant computing power meant that the method remained the preserve of think tanks, large universities and corporations until around the the 1980s and the advent of the Personal Computer. Since then, the use of the method has exploded and it has become ubiquitous in finance and financial planning even to the detriment of stopping people from trying to find closed form solutions for some problems which may have them.

Thanks to Moore’s law, most of us now have sufficient computing pow......................

To view our full article please login

This article was published in Opalesque's New Managers a top-down monthly analysis, news and research publication on the global emerging manager space.
New Managers
New Managers
New Managers

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Art & Motion launches collectible car alternative investment vehicle[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Luxembourg-based Art & Motion has launched a new investment vehicle dedicated to vintage cars and exceptional high-quality vehicles as this collectible market has grown exponentially the turn of the centu

  2. Opalesque Exclusive: Global Sigma captures February's long-vol trade[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York for New Managers: Florida-based Global Sigma rode February's volatility to new highs. The firm's AGSF strategy is up +2.8 percent through February 16 and +4.2 percent YTD a

  3. Institutional Investors - Hedge funds regain their appeal for a $57 billion asset manager, Private credit strategies in stratosphere[more]

    Hedge funds regain their appeal for a $57 billion asset manager From Bloomberg.com: With volatility back on the radar, one of the Nordic region's biggest asset managers is considering relying a bit more on hedge funds to help oversee his portfolio. Mikko Mursula, the chief investment off

  4. Investing - All aboard for hedge funds as trade tide lifts shipping, Hedge funds pile into Time Warner in bet on merger success[more]

    All aboard for hedge funds as trade tide lifts shipping From Reuters.com: Forced to abandon ship after mistiming their investments five years ago, hedge funds are venturing back in a bid to profit from growing global trade flows. Around 90 percent of traded goods by volume are tran

  5. Investing - Hedge funds turn short on tech just as stock rally takes off, After biggest short, speculators slash bearish US bond bets as supply deluge looms[more]

    Hedge funds turn short on tech just as stock rally takes off From Newsmax.com: A key group of investors has just missed out on the biggest tech-stock rally since 2014. Hedge funds and other large speculators turned net short on Nasdaq 100 Index futures for the first time in 21 months, ac