Opalesque Industry Update - British Prime Minister Theresa May has said that Britain will trigger Article 50 of the European Union's Treaty on Lisbon by the end of the month, a move that will officially start the clock on the two year period during which the UK must negotiate the specific conditions for its withdrawal from the EU. Though May has revealed a 12 point plan summarizing her main objectives for Brexit –from the promise to maintain transparency throughout the process, to ensuring free trade with European markets and entering into new trade agreements with other countries– no specifics have yet emerged. With literally thousands of details to workout regarding Brexit, from both legal and financial points of view, ongoing uncertainty about Brexit has already translated to volatility for the British pound, which has yet to return to its pre-Brexit value. And many market prognosticators believe the pound will again plummet once the process officially begins.
With heightened volatility for the pound more than likely to create turbulence in both the FX markets and financial markets in general, Brexit will undoubtedly impact global markets in one way or another. Given this reality, the New York Hedge Fund Roundtable recently delved into Brexit and its potential ramifications. Why the Alternative Investment Community Should be Focused on Brexit was the topic of the Roundtable's February event, where H.E. Ambassador Christian Braun, Luxembourg Permanent Representative to the UN and former Permanent Representative of Luxembourg to the European Union, discussed some of the concerns related to Brexit and how they could potentially impact global markets.
"With the ins and outs of how Britain will actually unwind itself from the European Union still unknown, and mixed views on the result still being discussed, the only thing that is clear is that Brexit will be one of the most closely watched issues over the next two years, given its potential to impact markets around the world," said Adam Weinstein, president of the New York Hedge Fund Roundtable.
Roundtable members believe that there will be more market turbulence as details of how Britain will unwind for the EU emerge, but that it is still too early to determine whether Brexit will have a long-term impact on the global economy.
New York Hedge Fund Roundtable members had the opportunity to weigh in on this topic both at the Roundtable's February event as well as through an online electronic poll.
*Of the respondents to this survey, 31% were fund managers; 13% were allocators; 16% were risk management or trading; 33% were service providers; and 7% were other industry participants.
Following are some of the key findings: