Tue, Jan 23, 2018
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

State Street's investor confidence index up 0.8 points in July to 107.6

Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Opalesque Industry Update - The State Street Global Investor Confidence Index rose very slightly to 107.6 in July, up 0.8 points from June’s revised reading of 106.8. The increase was slight, and was largely driven by an increase in risk appetite among Asian investors, with their risk appetite jumping from 89.3 to 100.8, and, to a lesser extent by an increase in risk appetite among European investors, with a corresponding increase from 98.2 to 105.7. North American investors by contrast became somewhat more conservative, showing a decline (albeit very small) from 114 to 113.7.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index was developed by Harvard University professor Kenneth Froot and Paul O’Connell of State Street Associates. It measures investor confidence or risk appetite quantitatively by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors. The index assigns a precise meaning to changes in investor risk appetite: the greater the percentage allocation to equities, the higher risk appetite or confidence. A reading of 100 is neutral; it is the level at which investors are neither increasing nor decreasing their long-term allocations to risky assets. The index differs from survey-based measures in that it is based on the actual trades, as opposed to opinions, of institutional investors.

“This month, North American investors are more concerned with rapid run ups in stocks and interest rates,” commented Froot. Last month’s risk-on view was that the interest rate increase doesn’t portend higher inflation nor higher growth - that it’s just a reduction in the rate-distortion caused by the Fed’s QEIII. Investors are back to a more realistic concern that, distortion or not, higher nominal and real rates translate into less credit extension, less leverage, and slower growth. This has been underscored by the results of the earnings season, which have been mixed. It’s also a reminder that the previously high rates of forecasted earnings growth are, at this point, in the unlikely positive tail.”

“The more decisive part of this month’s story is what is happening with European and Asian investors,” said O’Connell. “There we see that there is light at the end of the tunnel of adjustment to slower Chinese, Japanese, and European growth. They seem to be saying that, in spite of higher interest rates globally, the developed-countries’ monetary authorities are most likely to act to reduce the risk of economic growth, responding with flexibility and stimulus on the downside and using the opportunity for faster growth to tighten and slim their balance sheets. As a result, the range of real economic growth outcomes is actually more limited than it has been in a long time.”

Press release

bc

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Opalesque Exclusive: Statsure Financial launches captive insurer for hedge funds[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: Hedge fund managers have a new option for protecting their business. Launching this week at the annual MFA Conference, Statsure Financial is offering a captive insurance solution for hedge fund managers. Many large companies have captive insurers - insurance

  2. Legal - Former Och Ziff hedge fund executive indicted for fraud in Africa investment scheme, prosecutor says, Hedge fund blasts defense of Puerto Rico restructuring law[more]

    Former Och Ziff hedge fund executive indicted for fraud in Africa investment scheme, prosecutor says From CNBC.com: A former hedge fund executive faces federal charges for defrauding a UK-based charity over investments in Africa, according to a grand jury indictment made public Wednesday.

  3. U.S. economy, inflation and alternative investments to dominate 2018 markets, says family office Wilmington Trust[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: The emergence of a late-cycle economy in the U.S., the mystery of inflation and growth from a domestic and global perspective, and the potential for alternative investments to prosper against a backdrop of rich valuations, low yields, and higher volatility are the t

  4. Performance - Some hedge funds deliver double-digit gains for 2017, Brevan Howard's hedge fund suffers biggest annual loss in 2017, Crispin Odey's flagship hedge fund plummeted about 20% in 2017, Profits fall 90% at ex-Morgan Stanley banker's hedge fund, Fannie-Freddie overhaul might mint hedge fund riches, losses[more]

    Some hedge funds deliver double-digit gains for 2017 From Reuters/Investing.com: A handful of hedge funds ended 2017 with double digit returns, their investors said, at a time the $3 trillion industry took in fresh money and posted its best returns in years, industry data show. Act

  5. Investing - Hedge funds start 2018 with record $19 billion bet on the euro, Hedge fund Kora Management invests in Satin Creditcare[more]

    Hedge funds start 2018 with record $19 billion bet on the euro From Reuters.com: Hedge funds have kicked off 2018 with their biggest bet ever on the euro rising, a clear vote of confidence in the single currency but, with positioning so stretched, one which could backfire in the near ter