Sat, May 23, 2015
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Asia Pacific Intelligence

Kenton-Dau says Risk Level Orange for comet activity means financial crisis may be on its way

Tuesday, October 01, 2013

We are sitting at risk level Orange in terms of a likely tail risk event, says Branton Kenton-Dau, Principal of Kenton-Dau's Tail Event Warning system. He asks: "Is the trigger for the next financial crisis a comet that is at this moment hurtling towards the sun at 70,000 kilometres an hour?" Surprising as it may seem, Kenton-Dau believes that spectacular comets events coincided with both the 2000 Tech-Wreck Crash and the 2008 Financial Crisis."

"Comets can impact the markets because in both cases we are dealing with electrical systems" says Kenton-Dau. Earlier in the year Kenton-Dau formulated a set of equations to enable investors to trade a market's electrical components. He says that the system is currently being evaluated by leading institutional and private investors in the Australasia region.

"Most of the 250 periodic comets, 280 non-periodic comets and 120 comet-like asteroids currently being tracked by astronomers have no impact on the markets," says Kenton-Dau. "What we are looking for is a combination of events to take place in space that creates a Molotov cocktail in space the consequences of which we experience as a financial crisis."

His theory believes that the first of these two conditions is timing.  During its 11 or so year cycle the sun passes through periods of maximum and minimum electrical output.  These, according to Kenton-Dau, appear to be periods of instability in the system.  "The beginning of the 2000 Tech-Wreck Crash coincided with the last Solar Maximum while the 2008 Financial Crisis coincided with the most recent Solar Minimum. In August this year NASA announced a new Solar Maximum was likely during the next few months."

"However," says Kenton-Dau, "while the electrical system may be vulnerable at these times, something still has to short the circuit." He points out that July 1989 was also a Solar Maximum but there was no price collapse at that time.  He suggests this may have been because there was no associated electrical event.

Comets may be one way we get a short circuit in space. "Comets are electrically charged objects, " says Kenton-Dau.  "When they get in the way of a strong electrical field like the one that surrounds the sun, this may cause a major disruption to the electrical environment."

During the 2000 Solar Maximum, and coinciding with the start of the Tech-Wreck crash, just such an event took place, Kenton-Dau says, when Comet S4 Linear 'mysteriously' blew up as it approached the sun.

He writes: "Coincidence you may say, but in October 2007, during the last Solar Minimum and coinciding with the beginning of the General Financial Crisis, a similar event took place when Comet Holmes brightened unexpectedly to become briefly the most luminous object in the sky.  Did that brightening take place as the comet passed through a high voltage current in space?"

At the time of writing Kenton-Dau says there is no reason to be concerned about the current Solar Maximum. However the risk of another volatility event may substantially increase if Comet ISON displays any of the abrupt fireworks of comets Linear and Holmes. 

"Comet ISON is at its closet point to the sun on Thanksgiving day," says Kenton-Dau.  "If we are to see a display it is likely to be around this time."

Branton Kenton-Dau was interviewed in last October's edition of Asia Pacific Intelligence. You can read that interview here.

 
This article was published in Opalesque's Asia Pacific Intelligence our monthly research update on alternative investments in the Asia-Pacific region.
Asia Pacific Intelligence
Asia Pacific Intelligence
Asia Pacific Intelligence
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Comment - Top hedge fund managers talk about how easy their jobs have gotten, BlackRock to Schroders warn of Argentina’s $20bn bond glut, The 35-year “investment supercycle” is drawing to a close, says Bill Gross, Gundlach: When the Fed starts hiking rates, 'GET OUT' of this asset class[more]

    Top hedge fund managers talk about how easy their jobs have gotten From Businessinsider.com.au: Time was, before the financial crisis hit, corporate boards treated multi-billion dollar hedge fund managers like Jehovah’s Witnesses pounding on their doors and flashing bibles. But no more.

  2. T Rowe's challenge to Dell deal may fuel critics of 'appraisal'[more]

    From Reuters.com: An increasingly popular tactic used by hedge funds and others to extract more money from buyouts could soon face a major courtroom test when a big investor in Dell Inc may argue that it should be paid a higher price for the 2013 acquisition of the PC maker. The strategy, known as "

  3. News Briefs - Ergen says LightSquared plan unfairly favors hedge funds, Why hedge fund managers make good advisory clients, I learned a lot about dad-bros after spending 4 days in Vegas with 2,000 hedge funders[more]

    Ergen says LightSquared plan unfairly favors hedge funds LightSquared Inc.’s bankruptcy plan gives hedge funds that invested in the broadband company a leg up while blocking telecommunications firms from competing with it, a fund owned by Dish Network Corp. Chairman Charles Ergen said in

  4. Opalesque Exclusive: SEC approves proposed changes to Form ADV, '40 Act - comment period to follow[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: Hedge funds and providers of liquid alternatives will want to pay close attention to proposed reforms approved by the SEC yesterday. The changes will require more frequent reporting, as well as a closer look into social media, liquid alternative strategies, and

  5. New market regime has created more dispersion between managers[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: The month of April has marked the transition toward a new market regime, Philippe Ferreira, Lyxor AM’s head of research, managed account platform, commented in the May 5's Weekly Briefing. "The first quart

banner