http://www.opalesque.com Technical Research Briefing from Opalesque.com, a premium hedge fund news service en-us Copyright 2006, Opalesque.com knab@opalesque.com (Matthias Knab) knab@opalesque.com (Matthias Knab) TRB Tue, 09 Feb 2010 15:33:25 +0100 5 http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Tue, 09 Feb 2010 15:23:30 +0100 Near Term Trend: Negative Mondays Close: 1055.90 (- 3.90) UPDATE: We remain short from Thursday, January 21 at 1134.70. Current profit stands at $19,740.00. Tuesday- keep the stop at 1092.50 (close only). The slope of the 21- Day Moving Average line is negative, for the last twelve trading days. Our rule of 15 days (a negative moving average (slope) for at least 15 trading days implies the bearis... http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Tue, 09 Feb 2010 15:24:22 +0100 Intermediate Trend (3 Months): Neutral / Neg Mondays Close: $71.89 (+ $ .70 cents) UPDATE: The slope of the M.A. line remains positive / neutral. In light of this, over three weeks ago, when Crude was trading near $80/ barrel, we stated, A drop in the price of Stocks, could open up the possibility for a test of $72.00. Crude hit that mark and surpassed it, as the Eq... http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Tue, 09 Feb 2010 15:24:54 +0100 Near Term Trend: Negative Mondays Close: $1,066.20 (+ $13.40) UPDATE: Take note of the blue downtrend line which we put in place nearly two weeks ago- the market failed in this region last Tuesday/ Wednesday (see chart). In a broader sense, as the market was trading near $1,140.00, we stated, It could be vulne... http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Tue, 09 Feb 2010 15:25:28 +0100 Near Term Trend: Positive Mondays Close: 118155 (- 12.0) Yield: 3.58% UPDATE: Over two weeks ago we stated, If the S&P breaks below the trend line (see S&P chart), the 10- Year should trade toward 118120. As of Thursday, the market traded up to 118125. At that point we proceeded to state, Keep in mind, if ... http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Mon, 01 Feb 2010 08:12:19 +0100 Intermediate Trend (3 months): Positive Fridays Close: 12366 (+ 29) UPDATE: Since last June, the market defined a trading range within the confines of a broad sideways congestion pattern (defined by our blue horizontal lines). During this entire timeframe, the market has been extremely ch... http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Mon, 01 Feb 2010 08:14:03 +0100 Intermediate Trend (3 months): Positive/ Neutral Fridays Close: 10,235 (- 85) UPDATE: Three months ago, we stated, The Nikkei could be as low as 9,000 within the next week or two. Subsequently, three weeks following that statement, the market traded as low as 9,150, and furthermore held support at our proprietary blue line (internal support- see ch... http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Tue, 09 Feb 2010 15:26:03 +0100 Intermediate Trend (3 months): Negative Mondays Close: 13671 (+ 36) UPDATE: Once the market hit a high four weeks ago at 14575 – just 55 points under our 14630 region (our resistance level was based on our proprietary blue resistanc... http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Tue, 09 Feb 2010 15:26:33 +0100 Near Term Trend: Negative Mondays Close: $4.84 (+ 10 3/4 cents) UPDATE: Five days ago, we wrote, At some point near term, I would like to buy into this commodity; however the oscillators are not giving me the opport... http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Wed, 23 Dec 2009 10:27:47 +0100 Near Term Trend: Negative Tuesdays Close: $9.91 (- 10 cents) UPDATE: After calling the recent highs and lows for the past couple of months, the overall pattern for the last four weeks had been one of a broad congestion (an overall range of 40 cents between $10.20, and roughly $10.60), until the end of last ... http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Tue, 09 Feb 2010 15:27:34 +0100 Intermediate Term Trend (3 Months): Negative Mondays Close: 8635 (+ 28) UPDATE: We recommended selling the Aussie $ on Tuesday, January 18, at the opening - the price was 9137. As of Monday, we lower the stop to 8620. Based on that, we booked a profit of $6,288.50. Note: The slope of the weekly moving average line is flattening slightly. http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Mon, 01 Feb 2010 08:11:49 +0100 Intermediate Trend (3 months): Neutral / Neg Fridays Close: 27,420 (- 70) UPDATE: The slope of the 21- week M. A. line has turned neutral for the first time since June 2009. Three weeks ago, the market traded to its highest level (30440) since September 2008, and then proceeded to stall, and within the last two weeks retrace lower, f... http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Mon, 01 Feb 2010 08:13:32 +0100 Intermediate Trend (3 months): Positive/ Neutral Fridays Close: 92280 (+ 130) UPDATE: Months ago, we stated, FTSE continues to lead global equity markets higher, however, at this juncture has become fairly overbought (based on position of price compared to the position of the M.A. line). Subsequently, from October, fo... http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Mon, 01 Feb 2010 08:14:33 +0100 Intermediate Trend (3 months): Negative Fridays Close: 11581 (+ 28) UPDATE: The long term trend, since Gilts posted historical highs, in February, remains bearish, as can be viewed by the Blue Downtrend Line. Near term, following a rally to the price peak last November, Gilts retraced to the 11300 region, five weeks ag... http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Tue, 09 Feb 2010 15:27:06 +0100 Intermediate Trend (3 Months): Negative Mondays Close: 19565 (+ 50) UPDATE: The slope of the 21- week M.A. line has been flattening, and is actually shifting a bit negative. As of Friday, price action came upon our key proprietary support (blue horizontal line), and based on Mondays anticipated opening, this region could hold support for the first few days of next week. http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Mon, 01 Feb 2010 08:11:20 +0100 Intermediate Trend (3 months): Positive Fridays Close: 13951A (0) UPDATE: Two months ago, the market traded to its highest level since March 2008. In doing so, it broke above the downtrend line, and traded from the 13750 region up toward 14050 within a five week span. However, once the Nikkei began to rally one month ago, the JGB retraced directly back to our proprietary blue support line, but eventually broke... http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Mon, 01 Feb 2010 08:12:57 +0100 Intermediate Trend (3 months): Neutral Fridays Close: 55610 (- 215) UPDATE: It has been seven months since we noted the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. As of the week of July 20, the upside breakout, above the pattern, confirmed the market had moved well above the neckline. ... http://www.opalesque.com/index.php?act=TRTrial&and=download_file&sFileName=TRB2Jan2008.pdf Fri, 04 Sep 2009 08:11:56 +0200 Long Term Trend (12 Months): Neutral Thursdays Close: 9060 (+ 18) UPDATE: Late 2002, the market was trading near the 62 region, and subsequently hit a historical high, toward the end of 2007, at the 110 region. Since posting that particular high, against the U.S. Dollar, the market proceeded to sell- off to a low near the 7...