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Real Estate Briefing 08.Mar 2013

No US-style crash for Chinese housing market, predicts JP Morgan
The world's most expensive real estate markets
14 worst housing markets for the next 5 years
U.S. commercial-property prices seen rising near peak
Moody's: US state housing fin agencies still face risks
Immigrants fuel home ownership demand
There's a buyer rush in the US housing market unlike anything we've ever seen: Credit Suisse
Confidence in housing market rose in February
Household worth in U.S. rises by $1.17 trillion on housing
Fed's Fisher: Tapering Fed's bond buys could help housing market
US home market shrugs off seasonal factor
US property market recovery well underway with 6.1pct annual growth
Investor appetite returns to the property market across Europe
Developers cash in on Europe's poorest
UK: Signs of property market improvement as house prices see biggest quarterly rise in 2 years
Property market: London's strength is not a foundation for UK-wide recovery
China’s property curbs are unsuccessful, billionaire Lo says
China's 'ghost cities' warn of property bubble: Chanos
China to reduce property curbs' side effects
China, HK real estate markets to thrive: Pro
Thailand: Top 10 developers account for 45 pct of property market revenue
Thailand’s property boom showing no sign of cooling down
Is Australian property worth the risk?
Housing market sentiment rising with 80pct of consumers saying now is a good time to buy
Perth property market on the rise
Heat falling out of Auckland housing market
Over $870 bln of commercial real estate traded in 2012

Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

China’s property sector is not headed for a US-style crash given strong demand and low leverage in the sector, said Fang Fang, chief executive officer for China investment banking at JPMorgan Chase.
Fang Fang, who is also part of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference — a political advisory body, told CNBC on Thursday: “The market has reacted negatively over the past few days [to the recent cooling measures] but people still believe there is solid demand for properties, particularly in the big cities, so the impact may be temporary.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Monaco remains the most expensive residential real estate market in the world, with luxury homes costing anywhere from $5,350 to $5,920 per square foot, according to a new wealth report from Knight Frank. While real estate prices in the tiny country are consistently high, Monaco saw a bump this year as buyers shied away from French hotspots in reaction to President Hollande’s wealth tax proposals, the Knight Frank report said.
And Monaco, which does not charge a personal income tax, was particularly popular with Russian buyers over French markets, according to the report. Luxury real estate prices there increased 2 percent year over year. Prices in 2012 jumped the most in Indonesia, where they increased 38 percent in Jakarta and 20 percent in Bali………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Many analysts agree that home prices have bottomed out. According to the latest data from Fiserv Case-Shiller, National home prices are expected to rise 3.3 percent in the next five years. Of course, there will be many cities that see home prices lag behind the rest of the country.
We drew on the Fiserv Case-Shiller data to identify the 15 worst housing markets in the U.S. The bottom 15 cities are ranked by the projected annualized change in home prices between Q3 2012 and Q3 2017. We also included the median home price, median household income, unemployment rate, and the change in home prices since their peak, to offer a broader view of the local economy and housing market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Prices for U.S. commercial property are expected to climb in the next six months, extending a rebound that has sent values close to levels reached at the market’s peak in 2007, according to Green Street Advisors Inc.
There is an 80 percent likelihood that commercial real estate prices will rise over the next six months, the Newport Beach, California-based research firm said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

The credit quality of US state finance agencies is still at risk from low mortgage rates and home prices, high unemployment and uncertainty over federal policy, Moody’s Investors Service said on Thursday. Despite signs of life in the housing market, the ratings agency is keeping its negative outlook for the entire state housing finance agency sector, it added. The agencies “weathered the recession well,” Moody’s said.
According to the credit rater, the agencies maintained a steady median asset-to-debt ratio of approximately 1.2 throughout the 2007-09 recession, and their median profitability has now stabilised between eight per cent and nine per cent over the last three years after dropping in 2007………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Immigrants will generate almost 36% of the increased demand for U.S. homes this current decade, new research shows. That’s down from 39% in the past decade, according to a report by researchers at the University of Southern California. Immigrants’ share of demand growth is being reduced largely because native-born buyers’ share is growing, the researchers say.
However, the immigrant buyers “really filled a big hole,” in the last decade as the number of native-born home buyers lagged due to demographic trends that saw many Americans too young for home ownership, says Dowell Myers, director of the Population Dynamics Research Group at the University of Southern California………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Credit Suisse analysts conduct a monthly survey of real estate agents in 40 housing markets across the U.S. to get a ground-level view of the market around the country.
The results from their latest survey are out, and Credit Suisse analyst Daniel Oppenheim writes in a note to clients that “the breadth of strength in both pricing and traffic at the start of spring selling season” is “unprecedented in [the] survey’s history (dating back to ‘05).”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Consumer confidence in the U.S. housing sector continued to rise in February, but more people expect mortgage rates to increase over the next year, according to Fannie Mae’s monthly national-housing survey.
The mortgage-finance company said its poll of 1,008 Americans showed home prices are expected to rise an average of 2.9% over the next year, slightly higher than the 2.4% increase expected in January. The share who believe home prices will go up in the next 12 months was 48%, a survey high, while those who think home prices will fall held steady at the survey low of 10%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Household wealth in the U.S. climbed in the fourth quarter to the highest level in five years, propelled by a gain in home prices that is helping repair family finances.
Net worth for households and non-profit groups increased by $1.17 trillion from October through December, or 1.8 percent from the previous three months, to $66.1 trillion, the Federal Reserve said today from Washington in its flow of funds report. It was the highest since the fourth quarter of 2007………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Slowing the current pace of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases could paradoxically help the U.S. housing market, a top Fed official said on Thursday.
“It’s quite possible in my view … that a little tapering there would actually would make people realize that we’ve bottomed out on the interest rate cycle,” Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher told Fox Business News. “I think you’d actually see more activity than you are currently seeing.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

US home prices jumped in January, a sign the housing market is gaining momentum as it nears the spring selling season. Home prices rose 9.7 per cent in January from a year ago, according to data released by CoreLogic. That’s up from an 8.3 per cent increase in December and the biggest annual gain since April 2006.
Prices rose in all states except Delaware and Illinois. And prices increased in 92 of the 100 largest metro areas, up from 87 in December………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Residential property prices in the United States were up 6.1% on an annual basis last month, according to the latest Home Data Index from real estate valuer Clear Capital. The statistics also show that quarterly price trends at the national and regional level were moderately improved over the typically slow winter season although 11 of 15 of the lowest performing major metro markets saw quarterly price trends in February give way to minor losses.
‘While February’s yearly growth of 6.1% is encouraging, let’s keep in mind this rate of growth is measured against the market’s bottom, which we reported in our March 2012 Market Report,’ said Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

The European property sector is seeing a rebound in investor sentiment, with both the levels of activity and risk on the rise, property advisory firm CBRE reported. In a survey released ahead of next week’s MIPIM property conference in France, CBRE said 58 per cent of 362 investors questioned said they expected to buy more this year than last. This compares with 45 per cent giving the same answer last year.
Within this, a third of investors expect to be spending over 20 per cent more on investment deals in 2013 than they did in 2012………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

International financial investors have spent billions to gobble up cheap real estate in Berlin. But a look at Scharnweberstrasse 111 shows how they and their ruthless middlemen are exploiting immigrants from Southeastern Europe to make profits.
Their offices are in places where a lot of money is turned into even more money: in Luxembourg, the City of London and on Lake Geneva. They deal in shares of companies in Asia and Africa, and in real estate in Europe. They own more than 6,000 apartments in Berlin. Narghita lives in one of them………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

House prices rose by 0.5 per cent in February, which means they are up by 1.9 per cent in the last three months compared to the same period 12 months ago - their biggest year-on-year growth since September 2010, Halifax reported.
The average house price moved up to £163,600, though that remains 3 per cent below the last peak of £168,593 in April 2010 - and 18 per cent below the all-time high on the Halifax measure of £199,612 in August 2007. The lender also said it expects to see a national increase in prices over the course of 2013………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

When it comes to the property market, the capital is like another country, with rising prices and speedy selling times. Pre-financial crisis here is how the UK property market worked: any uptick in prices would start first in London. Homeowners in the capital would see the price of their property rise; they would then cash in – sell up – and move into the country for better schools and quality of life.
This steady flow of people out of the city would help the London price surge turn into a gentle tide of rising values across much of the UK………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

China’s property curbs in the past decade have been unsuccessful and the new round of measures will slow property sales, said billionaire Vincent Lo, also a member of the government’s advisory board.
“Certainly they haven’t been,” said Lo, chairman of Shui On Land Ltd. (272), a Shanghai-based developer, in an interview in Beijing yesterday. “Had they been successful, home prices wouldn’t have risen higher the more the government curbed.”http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-07/china-s-property-curbs-are-not-successful-billionaire-lo-says.html” target=”_blank”>Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Avoid investments that rely on the Chinese real estate market because the bubble there is getting “bigger, and bigger, and bigger,” hedge fund manager Jim Chanos told CNBC on Thursday. “Anything that’s depending on the Chinese economic miracle I would be careful of,” Chanos said.
The founder of Kynikos Associates, said it was “somewhat controversial” when he started to warn about real estate in China three years ago. But he added, “[the] property bubble is visual. You can’t miss it [now].”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

China’s latest property market curbs have stirred heated discussion, with experts close to policymakers saying China will try to control the side effects of the measures. The central government announced last weak that homeowners who sell their homes will have to pay an income tax equivalent to 20 percent of the profits they make on the transaction. The income tax for such sales is currently 1 to 2 percent of the sale price.
Qin Hong, a researcher with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD), said those who sell their only home after five years of use will be exempt from paying the tax………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Real estate markets in China and Hong Kong are going to thrive, said the CEO of Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, Cindy Chow, amid heightened investor concern over a bubble forming in these two markets.
“If you look at the Hong Kong and China [property] markets, we are still very positive about growth. We are seeing strong consumerism and strong take-up in office use,” said Chow. Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust has one retail mall in Hong Kong - Festival Walk - as well as an office building in Beijing in its portfolio………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Amid a highly competitive property market in Bangkok and its suburbs, the top 10 listed developers recorded combined revenue of Bt161.53 billion last year, accounting for 45 per cent of the overall market value of Bt357 billion.
Sansiri was the market leader with revenue of Bt30.08 billion for a share of about 8.4 per cent, followed by Pruksa Real Estate with 7.6 per cent and Land & Houses with 6.8 per cent, according to a survey by The Nation………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Some developers expect the integration of ASEAN countries to generate benefits for Thailand’s property market More than 50 percent of new developers to launch projects in Thailand in recent years were from other sectors including garments, jewellery and machinery, according to Monchai Orawongpaison, senior manager for project sales and marketing at property consultancy firm Colliers International Thailand.
Many developers have amassed land over several years and are not concerned that Bangkok’s new city plan may have an impact on the potential of plots, said Monchai. The new city plan is scheduled to come into effect from May, reported the Phuket News………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Those looking to the RBA for succour that property price rises are inevitable are only seeing half the picture. In the post-GFC environment, APRA is just as important to credit availability. It is APRA that has to date forced banks to lend dollar for dollar on deposit growth. This means that there is an implicit macroprudential constraint on the distribution of credit, even if the price is cheap. By that I mean considerably tighter credit standards than pre-GFC.
I do not see this changing unless APRA itself changes, or is changed. And if it does not change then property price growth is inherently limited. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Four out of five consumers (80%) say now is a good time to buy a home, according to a new consumer sentiment survey carried out by RP Data and online survey firm Nine Rewards in the first week of March.
This is up slightly from the 76% who said it was a good time to buy property when surveyed in October last year. Rising confidence about stepping onto the property ladder comes as more consumers expect property prices to rise over the next six and 12 months………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Western Australia’s land authority says confidence in the property market continues to strengthen with figures showing an increase in activity for the month of February. Landgates’s report shows a 10 per cent increase in the number of documents lodged compared with the same time last year.
Landgate’s Chief Executive Mike Bradford says the figures take into account house transfers, new mortgages and land releases. “It’s well reported that first home buyers are very active,” he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Signs are emerging that the heat in the Auckland real estate market is turning to a simmer, according to Quotable Value. The valuation service’s latest monthly index shows property prices nationally rose modestly in February, up 1.7 per cent over the past three months and 6.3 per cent over the past year.
Property values are now 3.2 per cent above the previous market peak in 2007. QV research director Jonno Ingerson said the rest of the country was now starting to see increases in value, although not as quickly as Auckland and Canterbury, where there were housing shortages………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Posted on 08 March 2013 by Laxman |  Email |Print

Real Capital Analytics’ (RCA) recently released 2012 Global Capital Trends Year In Review highlighted robustness in global transaction volumes during 2012. While, in Europe and the Americas, the fourth quarter is typically stronger as investors look to complete transactions by year end, Q4 2012 was unusually strong leading to over $870 billion being recorded for the full year.
“Q1 2012 started off weak with various global economic concerns playing on investor minds, but by year end we have seen the highest quarterly investment levels since 2007,” said Simon Mallinson, Executive Managing Director, EMEA. “The pending deal pipeline for early 2013 is also looking positive for the year ahead.” (Press Release)

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