Tue, Feb 9, 2016
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

Hennessee - Positive December for equities and hedge funds predicted

Monday, November 30, 2009
Opalesque Industry Updates - Hennessee Group LLC, an adviser to hedge fund investors, believes the equity markets are likely to continue their momentum heading into the end of the year and lead to additional gains for investors during the month of December. Charles Gradante, Co-Founder of the Hennessee Group, stated “We believe the ‘December Effect’, whereby investors choose to defer paying taxes on equity market gains until the following year, will provide additional support to the equity markets as we close out the year. And historical data seems to support this thesis as the equity markets have experienced gains during the final month of the year 70% of the time when positive through the month of November.” Gradante added, “In addition, hedge funds have experienced gains in December 100% of the time during these same calendar year periods.”

“DECEMBER EFFECT”: EQUITY MARKETS AND HEDGE FUNDS

Hennessee Group recently conducted a brief study examining the historical performance of the equity markets and hedge funds when entering the final month of the year with positive year-to-date gains. Hennessee Group focused on the calendar year periods dating back to 1995; using the S&P 500 Index and the Hennessee Hedge Fund Index as proxies. As illustrated in the chart below, dating back to 1995, the S&P 500 Index has generated positive returns through November in ten calendar year periods and experienced additional gains in December 70% of the time. In comparison, hedge funds managed to generate gains in nine of the calendar year periods the S&P 500 Index was positive through November and experienced gains in December 100% of the time.

Gradante stated, “The data supports the ‘December Effect Theory’ and bodes well for investors as we close out 2009. Hennessee Research indicates that when the equity markets were positive through November, they gained on average +2.1% in December while hedge funds gained +1.9%.”

Note: Hedge funds experienced a challenging period in 1998 due in large part to the failure of Long-Term Capital Management.

OPTIMISTIC HEDGE FUND OUTLOOK FOR 2010

While the Hennessee Group is optimistic for both the equity markets and hedge funds heading into the final month of the year due to the “December Effect”, we are more optimistic that hedge funds are well positioned for a good year on a relative basis in 2010. The Hennessee Group believes fundamentals will matter again in the coming year which should lead to an increase in dispersion between sectors and individual stocks, particularly as the rally gets long in the tooth. In addition, the equity markets are likely to trade in a range as opposed to trend in one particular direction in 2010. The Hennessee Group believes such an environment should favor hedge funds relative to their traditional counterparts as they will have the opportunity to generate alpha on the both the long and short side of their portfolios while not having to rely on market direction or beta for returns.

* For a more in depth monthly review of the economy, capital markets, and hedge fund performance and strategies, the Hennessee Group offers the monthly Hennessee Hedge Fund Review (www.hennesseegroup.com/hhfr/).

- FG

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Investing - Avenue Capital's Marc Lasry: We like European bank loans, Comment: A bunch of hedge fund managers are chasing the 'dream of crushing a major structural problem'[more]

    Avenue Capital's Marc Lasry: We like European bank loans From CNBC.com: European banks are under immense pressure, but at least one prominent hedge fund has found what it thinks is a good opportunity in the wreckage. Marc Lasry, co-founder and chief executive of hedge fund Avenue Capital

  2. Credit Suisse cherry picks hedge fund ideas[more]

    From FT.com: Credit Suisse Asset Management plans to cherry pick profitable concepts from hedge funds with the launch in Europe of a “best ideas” strategy. The investment arm of the Swiss bank said the strategy will separate it from other funds blighted by “overcrowding problems”. It comes at a time

  3. Investing - Hedge funds bet on risks in U.S. blue-chip debt, Hedge funds bets against bank credit risk paying off, Tiger Global still likes Internet names, gets pointers from Jeter[more]

    Hedge funds bet on risks in U.S. blue-chip debt From WSJ.com: Hedge funds are betting the next bond sector to crack will be the $4.5 trillion market for the safest U.S. corporate debt. New York’s Perry Capital has placed a $1 billion wager against investment-grade bonds issued by 10 comp

  4. Short Selling - Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass is shorting real estate—again, Top US hedge fund has €80m short position in Paddy Power Betfair[more]

    Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass is shorting real estate—again From Fortune.com: He also predicted the mortgage crisis in 2008. Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, who runs Dallas-based Hayman Capital, tanked the stock of a little-known real estate financier Friday by revealing that he is shorting

  5. HFRU Hedge Fund Composite Index down -2.58% in January[more]

    Global financial markets posted sharp losses in January led by declines in Oil and global equities, though steep intra-month losses in both were narrowed by strong gains in final trading days of the month. Global equities posted steep declines for the month led by Biotechnology, Energy, Financial, E