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42% of hedge fund managers see potential for default or restructure by Italy and Spain in Aksia global survey

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Jim Vos
Opalesque Industry Update - A survey of the world’s leading hedge funds published today by independent hedge fund research and advisory firm Aksia, reveals 42% of hedge fund managers see potential for a default or restructure by Italy and Spain.

Conducted over recent weeks, the survey of 125 institutional-caliber hedge funds representing approximately US$800 billion of assets under management (more than one-third of total hedge fund industry assets) also shows 60% of hedge fund managers see a similar prospect of Greece leaving the Euro and 65% think EU member states may issue Eurobonds.

94% of managers call for further monetary easing by European authorities in the survey and 80% believe the US Federal Reserve’s ‘Operation Twist’ will ultimately fail to impact financial markets.

The survey also highlights that hedge fund managers hold more bearish views on global and Chinese GDP growth than 2012 International Monetary Fund forecasts.

Other key findings of Aksia’s 2012 Hedge Fund Manager Survey include:

• The Federal Reserve and emerging market central banks garner a “B” grade on their handling of the financial crisis - while US and EU leaders receive near failing grades.

• Most hedge fund managers see new financial regulations as “irrelevant” to their strategy – 21% believe they will help their strategy.

• High correlations are not bad for all - 32% of hedge fund managers see “great opportunities” in this environment.

• Hedge fund managers expect markets to remain range-bound over the next 12 months – driven by macro factors rather than fundamentals. Global Macro is predicted to be the best performing strategy.

• 400 basis points is a common level at which managers with CDS spread-triggers begin moving prime brokerage balances away from counterparties.

• Generational shift in industry transparency: 26% of funds under 2 years old provide full portfolio disclosure – against 9% of funds over 10 years old.

• 54% of managers send position-level data to third party risk aggregators.

Jim Vos, CEO and Head of Research at Aksia, said:

“Many of the survey’s findings run against conventional wisdom. Investors are often bombarded with opinions espoused by intermediaries, which may or may not match the actual views of hedge fund managers.

This was an opportunity to get the opinions that may matter most.”

To receive a copy of Aksia’s 2012 Hedge Fund Manager Survey or for further information please contact: -

Aksia is a leading independent hedge fund research and advisory firm, providing manager, strategy and portfolio-level research and advisory services to institutional investors. Aksia’s clients are some of the most sophisticated allocators of capital in the world, and include pension funds, insurance companies, government-related funds, endowments and foundations. With offices in New York, London and Tokyo, Aksia offers global coverage of the hedge fund industry.

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