Wed, Oct 18, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

Hedge fund managers bearish on US equities and treasuries, strongly prefer Canadian to US dollar

Tuesday, April 05, 2011

Vincent Deluard
Opalesque Industry Update - Hedge fund managers remain bearish on U.S. equities, according to the TrimTabs/BarclayHedge Survey of Hedge Fund Managers for March. About 36% of the 77 hedge fund managers the firms surveyed in the past week are bearish on the S&P 500, down from 40% in February, while 28% are bullish, up from 26%.

“While hedge fund managers remain bearish, hedge fund investors are showering them with fresh cash,” said Sol Waksman, founder and President of BarclayHedge. “Hedge funds posted the heaviest inflow on record in February, which probably owes in part to superior performance. The Barclay Hedge Fund Index has posted a positive return for seven straight months.”

About 33% of hedge fund managers are bearish on the 10-year Treasury note, while 16% are bullish. These figures have remained largely unchanged for three months. In contrast, hedge fund managers have turned extremely bearish on the U.S. Dollar Index. Bearish sentiment vaulted to 43% in March from 31% in February, while bullish sentiment sank to 22% from 31%.

“Poor Japan sports a disaster of biblical proportions, a gargantuan debt burden, and deflation – and yet managers would rather own yen than dollars,” notes Vincent Deluard, Executive Vice President at TrimTabs. “Additionally, hedge fund managers strongly prefer the Canadian dollar to its American counterpart. In fact, the futures positions of speculative traders reveal that the loonie is much more of a safe haven than the greenback.”

About 18% of hedge fund managers aim to lever up in the near term, while 14% plan to decrease leverage. Meanwhile, most managers cite Portugal as the next victim of the European debt crisis. About 78% expect the country to need a sovereign bailout in 2011, while 37% of respondents feel Spain will also earn the honor.

“Managers reported an interest in adding leverage in each of our past 10 surveys, and margin debt stands at the highest level since July 2008,” notes Deluard. “Gambling with borrowed cash will prove popular until the Fed makes money more expensive. As to Portugal and Spain, hedge fund managers feel strongly that these are the next debt-crisis dominos to fall. Seasoned investors might consider using the credit-default swaps market to bet against the Iberian Peninsula.”

The TrimTabs/BarclayHedge database tracks hedge fund flows on a monthly basis. The TrimTabs/BarclayHedge Hedge Fund Flow Report provides detailed analysis of these flows as well as relevant topical studies. Click here for further information.

(press release)

Source

kb

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Regulatory - David Stockman: Trump tax reform overhaul is a pipe dream, stocks are heading for 40-70% plunge, Carried interest tax: How much does it matter?, Odey sees 'terrifying' mix in MiFID, tapering, asset values, Hedge funds come together to share cost of MiFID and research, SEC turns up the heat on U.S. investment advisers, India's Sebi asks hedge funds to report investments in commodity derivatives[more]

    David Stockman: Trump tax reform overhaul is a pipe dream, stocks are heading for 40-70% plunge From CNBC.com: David Stockman is warning about the Trump administration's tax overhaul plan, Federal Reserve policy, saying they could play into a severe stock market sell-off. Stockman, the R

  2. North America - Puerto Rico rejects loan offers, accusing hedge funds of trying to profit off hurricanes[more]

    From TheIintercept.com: Puerto Rico has rejected a bondholder group's offer to issue the territory additional debt as a response to the devastation of Hurricane Maria. Officials with Puerto Rico's Fiscal Agency and Financial Advisory Authority said the offer was "not viable" and would harm the islan

  3. Investing - WPP targeted by short-selling American hedge fund, Sun co-founder sells secretive hedge fund on big chip trade[more]

    WPP targeted by short-selling American hedge fund From Cityam.com: An American hedge fund has mounted a bet against WPP, the world's largest advertising group, with a trade worth almost £90m. Lone Pine Capital has built a short position worth 0.51 per cent of the FTSE 100 company,

  4. Hedge funds up as industry adjusts to rising rates[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Hedge funds have reshuffled their portfolio after nearly four weeks of rising rates as the Lyxor Hedge Fund Index was up +0.2% from 19 September to 26 (+1.1% YTD), fuelled by strong results of global macro funds, Lyxor Ass

  5. Manager Profile - How the world's hedge fund king used 'idea meritocracy' to become a billionaire[more]

    From Forbes.com: In 1982, Ray Dalio made what he calls the biggest mistake of his life. He made a bet that there would be an economic collapse stemming from a debt crisis. And he was wrong. He lost money. He lost his client's money. He had to let people go from his firm and borrow money from his dad