Tue, Jul 29, 2014
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

Hedge funds trim down net-long bets on coffee as surplus hits 500%

Thursday, September 16, 2010
Opalesque Industry Update - Hedge funds are trimming down their long-only coffee bets on concerns that prices of the commodity will fall amidst a rising surplus estimated to reach 500% against global demands, various media reports said.

Coffee supplies may be peaking, a report by Bloomberg showed, and its biggest rally in five years may come to a halt and the predicted large volume of harvests are forcing many hedge funds to reduce their investments.

According to data released by ABN Amro Bank and VM Group, supplies of Arabica, the most grown coffee in the world, would exceed demand by 6.67 million 60-kg bags by September 2011. The figure will be the biggest surplus in nine years and is six times larger than the expected surplus this season, reported The Age.

Speculators including hedge funds have cut their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, by 8.4% since Aug. 17, said Bloomberg.

"You cannot justify the spike on the upside if you look at the supply situation," said Christoph Eibl, co-founder of Zug, Switzerland-based Tiberius Group, which manages more than $2bn in assets, told Bloomberg. "People who have been betting on coffee may lose. In the long run, fundamentals always overrule."

In August, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that short-term coffee supplies are the biggest factor in driving up coffee prices.

ICO estimates the aggregate coffee production for this year's crop season would be about 120 million bags. The organization expects production to hit 133 to 135 million bags by 2011.

But this large volume is also seen to drive coffee prices down.

An independent survey made by Bloomberg amongst seven analysts showed the prices of coffee would reach an average $1.52 a pound in the fourth quarter, representing a decline of 20% against the prevailing market prices.

December delivery price for Arabica fell 0.65 cent, or 0.3%, to settle at $1.8915 on Monday in New York, declining for the third straight session.

Arabica had risen as much as 50% since June, partly on speculation that rainfall in Colombia would damage crops.

Insiders also believe that coffee harvest in Colombia will fall next year because of a plant-damaging fungus that is expected to hit coffee growers after the wet season. However, it is also expected that a huge volume harvest will be coming from Brazil next year, adding to the significant number of countries that will have normal production levels, said NWsource.com.

This is not the first time that hedge funds were stung by hot coffee prices.

In June, hedge fund managers lost on their short coffee bets as the prices or Arabica hit a two-year high after an unidentified company demanded funds to make good on the futures contracts they had been selling. Arabica breached the 150c level on June on the Intercontinental Exchange in New York, its highest in more than two years.

- Precy Dumlao
PD

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing
  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Hedge fund manager Winton Capital making headway with long-only strategy[more]

    From PIonline.com: North American investors are helping Winton Capital Management Ltd. make progress — albeit slowly — toward its founder's goal of becoming a $100 billion company. The firm's ticket to quadrupling its assets under management is unlikely to be one of its scientifically designed manag

  2. Opalesque Roundtable: Success in hedge fund marketing not linked to performance, but investor appetite[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Success in marketing a fund is not linked to the performance, but to investor appetite, to the way you can market the fund, and to how much time you can spend to raise assets, said Antoine Rolland, the CEO of incubator and seeding firm

  3. Opalesque Radio: Now is a good time to buy protection cheaply in the options market[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva: Investors are showing an increased interest in risk parity funds and strategies, Opalesque reported last year. Risk parity strategies have the

  4. The Big Picture: Charlemagne Capital smoothes risk out of frontier market investing with portfolio approach[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva: Opalesque recently talked to one of the portfolio managers of the Oaks funds, which are emerging and frontier market hedge funds focusing on equity long/short with a directional approach. They are run by

  5. Winton’s low-cost equities fund tops $1bn for first time[more]

    From FT.com: Winton, the London-based hedge fund, has increased the assets in its low-cost equities fund to more than $1bn for the first time in a sign that traditional stock managers may come under increasing pressure from computer-driven rivals. Winton, which manages about $25bn in total ass