Mon, Apr 24, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Industry Updates

GFIA study: Historical statistical risk metrics are poor predictors of future risk

Monday, September 06, 2010
Opalesque Industry Update - GFIA pte ltd, the Singapore based specialist in skill-based managers in Asian and emerging markets, has released a study on the usefulness of some of the more commonly used risk metrics in the hedge fund industry. The study was conducted on a universe of 316 funds with at least 2 years of track record, sourced from the Asiahedge database.

Summary findings include:
• Statistical risk measures did not persist during the financial crisis, suggesting that historical statistics are not a precise decision tool for allocators.
• However almost half funds in the universe demonstrated high persistency in the relative “riskiness” of a fund with its peer group.

Peter Douglas CAIA, principal of GFIA, commented: “We have always focussed our practice on qualitative assessments of funds and their managers, and have always been nervous of investors’ reliance on statistical measures as a decision tool. Our research confirms that it’s a mistake to consider statistical risk measures such as standard deviation (volatility), downside deviation, etc., to be accurate indicators of future risks. These measures, however, are quite likely to remain relatively constant between peer funds, especially for funds at the extreme ends of the risk spectrum.”

(press release)


The GFIA group of companies was founded by its principal, Peter Douglas, CAIA, FICP. In January 2010 an Asia-based family became a substantial strategic shareholder in the group holding company. GFIA has no corporate affiliations. www.gfia.com.sg


Bg

What do you think?

   Use "anonymous" as my name    |   Alert me via email on new comments   |   
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Opalesque Exclusive: Carden Capital bets on volatility[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York for New Managers: Machine driven strategies are having a bit of a moment in the hedge fund world right now. Systematic funds have outperformed other strategies at a time when all ey

  2. Sprott AM to sell Canadian diversified fund business to management-led group[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Toronto-based asset management company Sprott Asset Management LP (SAM) has entered into an agreement to sell its Canadian diversified fund business to a management-led group. Under the deal, the new group will have

  3. Investing - These hedge funds (and Madeleine Albright) are betting on a debt crisis, Hedge funds are upping their bets on the death of the traditional retailer, $20bn hedge fund recaps Corizon[more]

    These hedge funds (and Madeleine Albright) are betting on a debt crisis From Yahoo.com: There could be a big debt crisis brewing in places like China, India, Latin America and Africa -- and a growing number of investors are amassing war chests to cash in on the distress. Albright Capital

  4. Universities looking to defend endowments from Republican tax plan[more]

    From PIOnline.com: Some of the richest U.S. colleges are pushing back against scrutiny by Congress over the tax-exempt status of university endowments. Lobbying disclosure forms show almost two dozen schools such as Princeton University, University of Notre Dame and Cornell University are including

  5. Activist News - GAM touts 'tangible results' of turnaround as activist fight hots up, Bill Ackman not done with Herbalife, says his fight could get legs in May, Activist hedge fund CIAM says Euro Disney's buyout offer not fair for minority investors[more]

    GAM touts 'tangible results' of turnaround as activist fight hots up From FNLondon.com: GAM, the Swiss asset manager at the center of an attempted boardroom putsch by activist hedge fund RBR Capital, said its first-quarter results amounted to "tangible" proof that its management's plan f