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Expecting the unexpected: New Credit Suisse research piece examines how commodities may provide an effective hedge against unexpected inflation

Tuesday, April 07, 2009
Opalesque Industry Updates - Governments globally continue to flood markets with capital while central banks cut interest rates to nominal levels in an effort to combat the financial crisis.

Though these emergency measures may be essential to prevent any further contraction of financial markets, they could have serious, unintended inflationary consequences down the road. A new research report, “Expecting the Unexpected: Using Commodities as an Inflation Hedge,” released today by the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy team, examines how investing in commodities could provide a diversified hedge against inflation, especially unexpected changes to inflation, while helping to improve a portfolio’s overall risk/return profile. Some key findings from the report include:

􀂄 The magnitude of the stimulus plans has many on alert that these large liquidity injections could lead to a significant spike in inflation;

􀂄 A situation where prices change “unexpectedly” could pose a higher risk to an investment portfolio;

􀂄 Commodities tend to be one of the few asset classes that may not only act as a hedge against, but may also benefit from, rising inflation; and

􀂄 Because commodities are typically uncorrelated to other asset classes, a broad commodity index

based investment can provide diversification benefits that cannot be achieved with other tools such as Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS).

For a copy of this report, please email ir.betastrategies@credit-suisse.com.

About the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy
Credit Suisse’s Total Commodity Return Strategy has been managed for fourteen years and seeks to outperform the return of a commodities index, such as the Dow Jones – AIG Commodity Index Total Return or the S&P GSCI Total Return Index, using a quantitative commodity research process. Commodity index total returns are achieved through:

• Spot Return: price return on specified commodity futures contracts
• Roll Yield: impact due to migration of futures positions from near to far contracts
• Collateral Yield: return earned on collateral for the futures

About the Portfolio Managers
Christopher Burton, CFA, and Andrew Karsh are Co-Lead Portfolio Managers of the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy. As of March 31, 2009 the team managed approximately US$1.8 billion in assets globally.

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